Head to Head: See 2 sides of Ky. Derby prep at Aqueduct
Editor's note: This story was filed before the scratching of morning-line favorite McAfee from the Jerome Stakes.
The listed, $150,000 Jerome Stakes is one of the three Kentucky Derby 2025 preps on Saturday for newly turned 3-year-olds. The one-mile event offers a scale of 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying points.
Eight colts, led by Nashua Stakes hero Studlydoright and Thorpedo Anna's little half-brother McAfee, will enter the starting gate.
The Jerome has not been a key race for the Kentucky Derby in quite some time, but it has been productive in other areas. Independence Hall, winner of the 2020 Jerome became a graded-stakes winner and multiple graded-stakes placed. 2019 winner Mind Control was a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and 2018 winner Firenze Fire became a multiple graded-stakes winning sprinter as well as Grade 1-placed.
The contest is featured as race eight of nine with a 3:39 p.m. EST post time.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast examine the data and offer their top picks.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Enduring Spirit (30-1) | |
| Enduring Spirit shipped east to Jose Jimenez's barn in hopes of a form reversal. He was beaten soundly in his last three starts, finishing a combined 65 lengths behind against lesser company in the midwest. By third-ranked first-crop sire Tiz the Law, Enduring Spirit is out of an unraced daughter of Into Mischief. The notable black type is in the third generation of the distaff line, mostly international group winners, yet also includes multiple Grade 3 winning miler Doubles Partner and multiple Grade 1 placed turf router Summer Romance. The third dam, Serena's Sister, is a full sister to champion 3-year-old filly Serena's Song. Enduring Spirit will likely press the early pace and back up around the half-mile pole. Pass. | Now in Jose Jimenez’s barn, Enduring Spirit debuted at Keeneland’s spring meet where he ran seventh in the slop sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs. He won his second start in gate-to-wire fashion at Churchill Downs but finished off the board in his next three starts, including a distant ninth in the Bashford Manor and an even more distant seventh in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes. Enduring Spirit’s debut race produced two other next out winners as well as an additional six other runners that eventually found their way to the winner’s circle, though none have done anything of note. His second race produced one next out winner and a couple that hit the board. A couple of state-bred stakes winners have exited the Bashford Manor while Ellis Park Juvenile winner Owen Almighty is now graded-stakes-placed. Enduring Spirit last raced at Horseshoe Indianapolis where he was beaten by weaker foes, finishing fourth. Enduring Spirit has not raced in four months, and Jimenez is 12% wins with 35% in the money rate with that type of layoff over the past year. He’s also winless and 22% in the money in stakes races during that same time frame. More telling than anything is Jimenez’s 0% across-the-board success rate with runners first off a trainer switch, according to Race Lens. Sofia Vives has the call. Pass. |
| 2. Mansetti (10-1) | |
| After getting the dreaded maiden bounce out of the way in his second start, Mansetti bested Ontario-breds in the six-furlong Clarendon by a length. The Kevin Attard trainee was drifting in the stretch and held on over a fast-closing rival, and his 13.50 final furlong attested to his running out of oats. The free-running colt's 82 Brisnet rating fits with his Jerome rivals, but his 72 late-pace figure is one of the lowest in the field. Mansetti had a four-furlong work at Belmont, the fifth best of the day. Collected's son is out of an unraced daughter of Sky Mesa. Mansetti's half-brother is 2022 Mine That Bird Derby hero Straight Up. The rest of the distaff line is South American. Mansetti is shipping, trying a new surface and distance, and moving up in company. I expect he'll be part of the pace, and I expect he'll be another speed and fade type. Pass. | Trained by Kevin Attard, Mansetti debuted a winner at Woodbine, taking a six furlong event gate to wire. He then hit a brick wall in the Display Stakes before bouncing back to beat Ontario-breds in the Clarendon Stakes. Attard doesn’t often ship his charges to New York having just a 5: 1-1-0 record in the state over the last five years, per Race Lens. All of those races were turf events, it should be noted. Only one rival from Mansetti’s debut race has won in the subsequent months, however Display third place finisher He’s Not Joking won the Grey Stakes (G3) next out. This will be Mansetti’s first attempt on traditional dirt, and Sahin Civaci takes over from regular rider Leo Salles. Pass. |
| 3. Ican (8-1) | |
| Ican's speed ratings have improved in each start. In his last contest, an allowance event at Aqueduct, he faceplanted after the start, and both Ican and Joel Rosario showed athleticism to recover from the mishap. Ican was left seven lengths behind the pacesetter. Despite being a little green in the stretch, he made a sustained wide drive and cut into Cyclone State's lead. The Richard Dutrow, Jr. finished 2 3/4 lengths behind. Preservationist's son is half to 2024 Bay Shore Stakes winner Reasoned Analysis. There's little black type in the distaff line, which consists mainly of restricted-class runners. The chestnut colt was bumped and rank in his debut and encountered trouble in his last start, so is he a hard-luck type? Either way, he's shown he can overcome trouble and is worth a look for the exotics. | Trained by Rick Dutrow, Ican turned in a dismal debut performance, finishing ninth of twelve, beaten by 17 3/4 lengths. He won his next outing when shipping to Indiana and dropping in class, scooting off to a 6 1/2 length victory. Laurie talked about his tenacious run in his last start, but so far, this colt hasn’t faced any world beaters. That won’t matter much here as Dutrow has him set up for success against a mostly so-so group. Manny Franco has the mount and will be Ican’s fourth jockey in as many starts. Exotics. |
| 4. Omaha Omaha (8-1) | |
| Omaha Omaha has also improved in each start. He had zero early speed in his last start and made a Zenyatta-like sustained drive from ten lengths behind. Raul Mena took Omaha Omaha up the rail, split horses and kept going. The bay colt lost focus once in front but was kept to his task and drew off by seven lengths. Although the Michael Gorham trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in a slow 1:46.28 over a sloppy Laurel track, the race was visually impressive against staggering rivals. By second-ranked second-crop sire Audible, Omaha Omaha is half to the Canadian multiple stakes placed Moon Strikes. Their dam's full brother, Big Blue Kitten, is a multiple Grade 1-winning turf router. The extended family includes 2-year-old champion Stevie Wonderboy and the multiple-graded winning turf veteran Somelikeithotbrown. Omaha Omaha is moving up in class, but as the lone one-run closer in a race filled with speed, he could earn a paycheck. Exotics. | Trained by Michael Gorham, Omaha Omaha debuted on turf, finishing a decent fourth. Gorham switched him to dirt for his second start, and the colt finished third. He found the winner’s circle in his third start and doubled down to also win his fourth race. Omaha Omaha’s first three races were at Delaware Park with stakes winner Sacred Thunder the winner of Omaha Omaha’s second start. Gorham has saddled just two winners from 51 starts on the NYRA circuit with a 33% in the money rate over the last five years Race Lens tells us. He’s also winless in stakes races over the last year with a 43% in the money clip. Regular rider Raul Mena retains the mount. Exotics. |
| 5. Georgia Magic (10-1) | |
| Despite being leg-weary, Georgia Magic outclassed rivals in his debut by 1 1/4 lengths. He fought every step of the race. First, he put away an early challenger, then held off a tepid latecomer. The Raymond Handal trainee completed six furlongs in 1:12.24 but crawled his last furlong in 13.50. Georgia Magic's 70 late pace figure is one of the lowest in the field, and one rival returned to finish a distant second in their next start, making the race class questionable. Good Magic's son is out of the winning Flatter mare Nightlife Baby. The mare's half-brother, Table Limit, is a Grade 3 winner, but overall, there's little blacktype in the first three generations of the distaff line. An interesting note: Georgia Magic's third dam is a full sister to Golden Derby, famous for being bitten by Great Prospector in the 1980 photograph of the Tremont Stakes, "The Savage." Georgia Magic may regress in his first start against winners that have more experience. Pass. | Trained by Raymond Handal, Georgia Magic debuted a winner here at Aqueduct on Black Friday. He was tested early and often but proved best in the end, earning an 80 Equibase speed figure. Race Lens shows us that Handal is 7% winners with a 36% in the money rate with sprint-to-route runners and is winless with a 14% in the money clip in stakes races over the last year. As a native Georgian, I’m partial to this son of Good Magic, and I like that he’s already had a race over this track. Romero Maragh replaces Dylan Davis in the irons. Exotics. |
| 6. Cyclone State (7-2) | |
| Cyclone State needed time to figure out that he was happier setting the pace rather than chasing it. The switch in running style resulted in a second-place finish and two victories, including his last against Ican. The Chad Summers trainee had it all his own way in his first start against winners and completed a mile in 1:37.53, with a glacial 13.58 final furlong. He earned a career-best 87 Brisnet rating and a middling 82 late-pace figure. By second-ranked first-crop sire McKinzie, Cyclone State is out of the multiple stakes winning sprinter-miler Chanel's Legacy. His half-brother Satara was second in the 2024 Prairie Mile. Cyclone State posted a pre-race bullet five-furlong move in 1:01.21 at Belmont. He made uncontested leads in both starts and may not get that luxury in the Jerome. However, he's on a roll and improving. Contender. | Trained by Chad Summers, Cyclone State didn’t get off to the best of starts. He was unplaced in his debut at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet over the summer and in his two starts at Saratoga. His return to the Aqueduct track was marked by a noticeable improvement. Since his return, the colt has gone 3: 2-1-0, all at the Jerome distance of one mile. Summers hasn’t won a stakes race since Clapton won the 2023 Lukas Classic (G2) and is 7% wins with a 21% in the money clip in all stakes races over the last five years. I think he can break that streak with Cyclone State. Luis Rivera Jr. retains the mount. Contender. |
| 7. Studlydoright (5-2) | |
| Studlydoright returns to a one-turn mile after running out of oats in the 1 1/8 mile Remsen (G2). The Nashua Stakes hero is the class of the race and despite his fourth-place finish in the Remsen, he recorded an 85 Brisnet rating and 87 late-pace figure, the second highest in the Jerome. By Nyquist, Studlydoright is the first competitor and stakes winner out of the stakes winner and Grade 3-placed turf router, Peach of a Gal. She's a half to veteran handicap horse, Concealed Identity, and Peach of a Gal's half-sister bore multiple graded winning turf miler, Ruby Nell. The John Robb trainee has tactical speed, which is crucial for a speed-filled race. Contender. | Trained by John Robb, Studlydoright is 7: 3-2-0 lifetime with victories in the Tremont and Nashua Stakes. He was my top selection in the Remsen (G2) off his Nashua win, but he could only muster up a fourth place finish. He wheels back in distance here and should improve because of it. Robb is winning stakes at an 18% rate with a a 50% in the money clip. Regular rider Xavier Perez retains the mount. Contender. |
| 8. McAfee (scratched) | |
| After graduating at first asking at Churchill, McAfee showed grit and determination facing winners at a mile. After tailgating the pacesetters, Emmanuel Esquivel asked the colt to go through a tight opening on the rail. McAfee complied and battled shoulder-to-shoulder with Moral, while Optical in the three-path grabbed the lead. McAfee won the battle with Moral and just missed the victory by a head to Optical. That one is entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes. The Richard Dutrow, Jr. trainee earned an 83 Brisnet rating and 89 late-pace figure, the highest in the Jerome field. Cloud Computing's son is a half-brother to the sensational Thorpedo Anna. Their third dam bore Wood Memorial hero and sire Eskendereya. If McAfee shows a quarter of the talent Thorpedo Anna has in a hind hoof, he'll be the Jerome winner. | Also from the Rick Dutrow barn, McAfee debuted a winner traveling six furlongs at Churchill Downs. He followed that up with a head loss to Smarty Jones entrant Optical in a mile starter race. The 90 Equibase speed figure McAfee earned last out is second only to Studlydoright’s 95 in the Nashua Stakes. I admittedly didn’t like Optical in the Smarty Jones, but I do like McAfee here. I may be face palming by the end of Saturday by splitting this decision, but McAfee just feels like a better fit here than Optical is out in Arkansas. Jose Gomez takes over from Emmanuel Esquivel. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: All of the last ten Jerome heroes had at least two starts under their girth, and eight hit the top three in their previous start. Two won after placing seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Five Jerome victors prepped in stakes, including two in the Remsen and one Nashua winner, and only two lost ground in their final prep.
No running style dominated. Pacesetters and closers won three each, while pace pressers won four. Only one favorite didn't hit the board, and six won.
The Jerome attracted multiple pacesetters. So will there be a mad scramble and hot pace, or will one grab the lead while the others are content to settle? Only the jockeys know for sure, and they aren't giving away game tactics.
McAfee, Studlydoright, Ican and Omaha Omaha will settle behind the pace.
McAfee has the best breeding in the Jerome. That and his brave move up the rail in his second start makes him my top pick.
I liked Studlydoright in the Sanford, Hopeful and Remsen, but he was foiled in all three attempts. He's found trouble or had to go wide in most starts, yet has finished worse than third only twice in seven starts. I expect he'll get another wide trip, and I'll give him the nod for second place.
Ican gained ground on Cyclone State with each stride in his last race after a bad break. He's shown talent and could surprise.
Of the pacesetters, Cyclone State has the most upside. If they leave him alone, he'll open up.
Omaha Omaha has improved in each start and is bred for distance. Michael Gorham's record at Aqueduct isn't the best, but this colt shows promise. He's worth including in exotics as a live long shot.
Ashley: Race Lens predicts a hot pace for the Jerome with Enduring Spirit, Mansetti, Georgia Magic, and Cyclone State slated to contest the lead. Of those four, Cyclone State has the most upside, though he will need to prove that he can be successful while being pressured.
I’m looking for a runner that’s going to relax off the pace and be ready to pounce in the stretch. Studlydoright, McAfee, and Ican all fit that bill. Studlydoright is looking to improve on the cut back in distance. Ican was gaining on Cyclone State with every stride last out, and McAfee looks like he could be as talented as his half-sister Thorpedo Anna.
As much as it makes sense to go with one of the aforementioned three pressers, I do keep circling back to Cyclone State. He has shown an affinity for the Aqueduct track and is on a two-race win streak. I don’t like the inside speed in this field and believe that Cyclone State is the classiest of the speed. I’m going for the mild upset with the horse for course.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 8. McAfee (scratched) | 6. Cyclone State (7-2) |
| 7. Studlydoright (5-2) | 8. McAfee (scratched) |
| 3. Ican (8-1) | 7. Studlydoright (5-2) |
| 6. Cyclone State (7-2) | 3. Ican (8-1) |