Ky. Derby: Does Baffert still have grip on 3-year-old division?

Bob Baffert is back, but for those who believed he would be better than ever, it’s time to take notice.

With all the legal tomfoolery behind him and the ban by Churchill Downs Inc. finally lifted, this year’s Kentucky Derby is the first that Baffert is eligible to compete in since 2021. Most believed he would come out swinging, sending two or three contenders to Kentucky at short odds after running the board in California and maybe even Oaklawn, too. The reality, however, has not met those expectations.

Dating to September when this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby kicked off at Churchill Downs with the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, Baffert has won four points races. Juvenile champion Citizen Bull is responsible for three of those victories, and two of his wins were as a 2-year-old. Getaway Car is the only other prep winner for Baffert by virtue of a nose victory in the Sunland Derby. But he flopped in Virginia when Baffert shipped him east to seek more points in the Virginia Derby.

Speaking of flopping, Gaming was a puzzling eighth of nine in the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his 2025 debut. The colt already had won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). For him to run that poorly was uncharacteristic, but in fairness, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong that day.

Baffert told Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free in February that he had backed off a bit with Gaming and was essentially regrouping while still trying to figure out the colt’s quirks. Baffert ended up running him in the Hot Springs Stakes on Sunday rather than in the Arkansas Derby (G1) the day prior. Gaming ended up chasing winner Clever Again around the oval, finishing four lengths behind the Steve Asmussen trainee.

Madaket Road has had three shots this year to prove he’s a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Although he has run well, he hasn’t seen the inside of the winner’s circle. He was third behind stablemates Citizen Bull and Rodriguez in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).

Baffert then separated his charges to give each of them the best possible shot at picking up points. He shipped Madaket Road to Oaklawn and then Gulfstream Park. Coal Battle ran right past Madaket Road in the Rebel (G2) with the Baffert trainee settling for second. The same scenario played out in the Florida Derby (G1). After doing the early legwork, the colt folded as Tappan Street Sovereignty and Neoequos passed him in the stretch. He checked in fourth, beaten by 5 1/2 lengths.

Maiden winner Cornucopian was the talk of the town entering the Arkansas Derby. Despite having just one start, Cornucopian was sent to post as the odds-on favorite. After hooking up with Speed King in a suicidal duel that saw the half go up in a blistering 45.21 seconds, the colt didn’t stand a chance. Track announcer Matt Dinerman summed it up best, “And Cornucopian … the dirt has turned into quicksand.” He still managed to hold on for fourth, however. It would hardly be surprising if Baffert had a heated exchange with John Velazquez following the race.

As it currently stands, Bob Baffert will have three in the gate in May, but only Citizen Bull’s spot is assured. With three more races worth 100 points to the winner and 50 points to the runner-up, Getaway Car and Madaket Road could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Barnes and Rodriguez will each have one last shot to make the field this weekend when they enter the starting gates of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the Wood Memorial (G2), respectively. Barnes has the more difficult task. He will face Citizen Bull and Journalism, who are both highly regarded.

Santa Anita was unable to attract more than two entrants willing to take on the Baffert duo and Journalism, therefore the amount of points available has been reduced. With only five in the gate, the points awarded to the finishers will be 75-37.5-18.75-11.25-7.5. A second-place effort under those conditions likely would get Barnes in the gate, but if someone scratches, Barnes would need a victory to assure his place in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Rodriguez will face 11 rivals at Aqueduct. The standings for those in the Wood who already have earned points are as follows:

With no Wood Memorial runner already in the top 17 and accounting for the Europe-Middle East and Japan invitees, the top two finishers are assured spots in the gate. Rodriguez could run third and still make the field depending on how things shake out, but that’s a chance not worth betting.

If you feel like Baffert’s four bubble horses’ chances of going to Kentucky is reminiscent of the NFL playoff chase each year, you’re not alone. Getaway Car and Madaket Road have done all they can do, and their fate is in the hands of their stablemates and any upset runners in this weekend’s three prep races.

Baffert has several balls in the air, but the deck isn’t stacked in his favor. He has talent in his barn without a doubt, but he might have lost a step during his suspension.

In his return to Churchill Downs, it’s entirely possible that all his Derby dreams could come down to only Citizen Bull if chaos throws a monkey wrench into things this weekend. Plus, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner rarely doubles down in the Kentucky Derby, so Baffert could go home empty-handed. Not exactly what we had all anticipated.