Handicapping the 2015 Santa Anita Derby

Laurie

Ashley

Dortmund—(Big Brown - Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) He’s undefeated, his speed figures keep getting better.  Unless he loses today, he’ll most likely be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.  Read Dortmund’s pedigree profile.

Dortmund—There’s really not a whole lot to say here. Dortmund refuses to lose, something evidenced in the Robert B. Lewis when Firing Line headed him and pulled away in the stretch only for Dortmund to re-rally and win. This son of Big Brown has a ton of heart, and even at 1 1/8 miles, I think he’ll continue to show gumption and courage. Being perfect at Santa Anita certainly doesn’t hurt. Top Contender.

One Lucky Dane—(Lookin At Lucky - Echo Harbor, by Boston Harbor) is Dortmund’s stablemate and appears to be in the race to keep the other speed busy. One Lucky Dane owns a victory in a maiden and optional claiming race, both at a mile. Note that his only victories were accomplished on the lead and that the one time he had to duel, he lost. One Lucky Dane is a half-brother to the precocious juvenile   stakes winning sprinter, Western Smoke and to A Shin Harbor, a stakes placed runner in Japan.  His pedigree indicates One Lucky Dane will be best as a miler through 1 1/16 miles.  Watch for him to start backing up after a mile, maybe sooner.  Pass.

One Lucky Dane—I have a bit of a different on One Lucky Dane, Laurie. Sure the one time he had to duel, he lost; but he only lost by ½-length and it was over the Polytrack at Del Mar. The surface could have been as much to blame as the duel itself, particularly since the fractions were softer than the in his very next race in which he broke his maiden. Ultimately I tend to agree with you in that he likely won’t be able to sustain his speed for the entire 9 panels, but he might just be able to hang in there for a minor placing. Exotics.

Cross the Line—(Line of David - Beer Baroness, by Mr. Greeley) has improved his speed figures in every race. After a victory in the Cal Cup Derby, Cross The Line had a terrible trip in the El Camino Real Derby, where he was stuck in a California traffic jam, had to slam on the brakes and still managed to grab second place late, despite the terrible trip. Cross the Line is a half-brother to RIA ANTONIA, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (via DQ) and who placed in the Santa Anita Oaks and Juddmonte Spinster.  Buzzard’s Bay was third in the El Camino Real Derby before capturing the Santa Anita Derby in 2005, so it can be done.  Cross the Line is a huge 17 hands high colt who could have a say in the outcome of the race. Contender.

Cross the Line—Obviously likes to be on or near the lead but has enough versatility to improve his placing when he doesn’t get the front-running trip he prefers. I would say he has a much better chance of carrying his speed the entire 1 1/8 mile, especially if he does not get mixed up in a duel early on. For me, his lack of dirt form is concerning, but he did have a nice solid work over the Santa Anita main track on March 31, going ½ mile in :47 (4/31). I have to agree with you, Laurie. Cross the Line looks like he could have a huge say in the final outcome. Contender.

Bolo—(Temple City - Aspen Mountain, by Chief Seattle) is a colt with plenty of upside.  He proved in the San Felipe that he can run with the best over dirt.  He had to steady in that race, was outrun by Dortmund, but was only ½ length shy of second place.  The big question for Bolo is distance. His sire won at 1 ½ miles, but Bolo’s immediate distaff line leans more towards speed. His damsire’s offspring were best as milers. His second dam placed in the Canadian Oaks at 1 1/8 miles.  The positive note is that Bolo’s dam is a half-sister to the top producing mare Mining My Own (Smart Strike) who gave us Kentucky Derby shocker Mine that Bird and his Grade 1 winning brother Dullahan.  Bolo’s on the pace running style could be hindered by One Lucky Dane.  Still, he’s one to keep on your tickets.  Contender.

Bolo—So he proved he could run on dirt in the San Felipe, but he still could not keep up with Dortmund. That is an outcome I do not foresee changing this go ‘round. I would say that he likely will grab at least 3^rd again, but I like Cross the Line better than Bolo in terms of speed and the ability to carry that speed over a route of ground. Exotics.

Prospect Park—(Tapit - Quiet Romance, by Bertrando) is another quickly improving colt. After winning his first two starts of the season, the son of Tapit took on the undefeated Dortmund. He made up plenty of ground in the stretch, but Dortmund snuck under the finish line 1 ¼ lengths ahead.  Prospect Park is a half-brother to Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) winner Silent Sighs and her full sister, multiple graded stakes winning Proposed. Prospect Park should love the additional distance in the Santa Anita Derby. The colt can be placed anywhere early on and is a top threat to Dortmund.  Contender.

Prospect Park—I was quite impressed with Prospect Park’s performance in the San Felipe. Never too far back early on, the son of Tapit shifted out in the stretch and ran his heart out to get past Bolo for 2^nd place. I got the impression that Prospect Park had just hit his best stride shortly before the wire flashed overhead and could have really scared Dortmund had the race been much longer. With more distance and time to get his motor running in the SA Derby, he might could manage to steal this from Dortmund. Contender.

Bad Read Sanchez—(Warrior's Reward - Past Twilight, by Pulpit) hasn’t raced since last August, has a miler type pedigree and although he shows a good work pattern, this is a peculiar place for him to start his three year old season. Doug O’Neil won back-to-back Santa Anita Derbies with I’ll Have Another and Goldencents.  Bad Read Sanchez isn’t in their league.  I’m guessing somebody owes the Racing Secretary a favor to get five horses to face Dortmund. Pass.

Bad Read Sanchez—Laurie, I think you hit the nail on the head. Someone must have owned the Racing Secretary a favor because I cannot for the life of me figure out how running Bad Read Sanchez in the SA Derby is a good idea. Not only has he not raced since August, he’s never been asked to race further than 6 ½ furlongs. Maybe this is a Hail Mary attempt at qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, but I wouldn’t touch this guy with a 10 foot pole as a bet on him looks like money thrown away. Pass.