Handicapping the Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Photo: Alex Evers / Eclipse Sportswire
 
Conceived in 1935, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes has typically been used in more recent times as a stepping stone to the bigger Californian Kentucky Derby preps. The race itself has had a rather complicated run over its 80 year history. From 1935 until 1964, it was open to 3-year olds and upwards except in 1940 when it was restricted to 2-year olds and run as the Santa Catalina Nursery. During that same time frame the race was also known as the Santa Catalina Handicap (1935, 1941, 1945-1964) and the Santa Catalina California-Bred Championship Stakes (1937-1939). The race was not run in 1936 or 1942-1944, the cause for the latter period of inactivity being World War II. In 1964 the race was once again renamed, becoming the Santa Catalina Stakes for 3-year olds. It remained that way up until 2007 when it was renamed to honor prominent racehorse owner Robert B. Lewis who had died in 2006.
 
 
Since being restricted to 3-year olds and developing into a Santa Anita Derby prep, there have only been two colts to complete the Robert B. Lewis/Kentucky Derby double. The first of that duo was Ferdinand in 1986. More than 20 years would pass before I’ll Have Another became the second colt to accomplish that feat in 2012. Sham and Pioneerof the Nile both used their Lewis wins to springboard to the Kentucky Derby runner-up position, however.
 
 
In recent years, the Lewis has not drawn big fields, and this year is no exception. Just 6 will enter the starting gate with 5 runners hoping to hand headliner Dortmund his first career defeat. As a Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby points race, the Lewis will be worth a total of 17 points, spread out in 10-4-2-1 fashion. Pedigree Power’s Laurie Ross and I have put our heads together, and this is how things look to play out to us.
 
 
Laurie
Ashley
Tizcano—(Tiznow - Westerly Breeze, by Gone West) is bred for two turns and finally gets his chance in the R.B. Lewis.  That being said, I’m not totally convinced this guy wants to run on dirt. Sure he won his maiden on dirt last June, but overall, his record over fast dirt is poor Tizcano’s full brother earned his lone victory over the turf.  Their dam is Alcibiades (G-2) heroine WESTERLY BREEZE. She is a full sister to multiple G-1 runner-up Ocean View and a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes placed veteran Jacksonport. Not at the same class level as others in here, might earn a minor award.
Tizcano—I’m not really sure what to make of this son of Tiznow. He won by open lengths on the dirt in his debut, but his only other victory since then was on the polytrack at Del Mar. I like the 7 panel works he’s had, and with no consistent “need the lead” types, I reckon he could be a factor on the front end. Overall, though, I’m just not feeling it.
Rock Shandy—(Lemon Drop Kid - Panthera, by Storm Cat) saved ground in the Sham Stakes, tipped out around the turn and chased Calculator home.  It was a good effort for his first try over dirt.  He’s a half to the stakes winning turf mare ANEGADA (by Arch).  Rock Shandy’s dam is a half-sister to Hollywood Derby hero and sire BRAHMS, and stakes winner OLYMPIC.  Panthera is also a half-sister tothe hardy, popular La Reina, who won the Tempted Stakes (G-3) at a mile over dirt and was nosed out for the win by eventual Champion Ashado in the 1 1/8 mile Demoiselle as a two year old.  Rock Shandy hails from one of the classiest female families around. His second dam QUEENA was 1991 Champion Older Mare. Her half-sister TOO CHIC was also a Grade 1 winner. She and her daughters have produced G-1 winner CHIC SHRINE, multiple graded stakes veterans AL KHALI, SERRA LAKE, SOARING EMPIRE, HUNGRY ISLAND, EL PADRINO, SOMALI LEMONADE, and RASTA FARIAN.  Rock Shandy’s fourth dam Remedia is a blue hen.  Rock Shandy showed notable speed figure improvement and he should enjoy the extra real estate in the R.B. Lewis. Contender.
Rock Shandy—Throw out his debut and Rock Shandy has not put in a bad effort, showing potential on both the lawn and dirt. I agree with Laurie that he put in a good showing while chasing Calculator last out in the Sham. A similar effort could see him get a piece of the pie here, and I certainly like this Peter Miller trainee better than stablemate Tizcano. Consider for exotics.
Sebastian’s Heart—(Broken Vow - Dutchess Alexandra, by Judge Smells) gets back to the dirt after experimenting with Polytrack and Turf.  His pedigree is miler oriented, but he should handle the 1 1/16 miles. That being said, trainer George Papaprodromou picked a tough spot to kick off the gelding’s three year old season.  Hopefully, Sebastian’s Heart has been training elsewhere without recorded breezes, otherwise, this guy shows a very spotty morning record.  Pass.
Sebastian’s Heart—Spotty morning works. Mehhhh racing record. A trainer that is only 4% in stakes races. I’m just not seeing a whole lot to like here. In his two dirt starts, Sebastian’s Heart’s speed figures dropped from the first dirt race to the second. They then rose when he moved to the polytrack only to sharply decline over the turf. You have to give trainer Papaprodromou props for boldness, but I’m not betting that his gamble pays dividends. Pass.
Hero Ten All—(Rock Hard Ten - Silky Smooth, by Mr. Greeley) showed nothing in his first attempt against stakes company and his subsequent breezes have been slow.  Hero Ten All’s dam is a multiple stakes winning turf sprinter/miler.  She’s a half-sister to Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes hero SHANIKO, who set a new track record for 1 1/8 miles in that Grade 2 event.  Hero Ten All’s second dam is a stakes winning half-sister to the dam of Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf heroine SHARED ACCOUNT.  The colt’s speed figures are slowly improving.  Slow being the optimal word here. Maybe he can clunk up to ruin someone’s superfecta.
Hero Ten All—Laurie, I think you’re giving Hero Ten All a little too much credit here. It takes a special horse to grind out a win at Santa Anita, especially in a race where the speed scenario doesn’t look all that quick. Trainer Jeff Mullins is 0 for 17 in stakes races over the past year. All in all, I can’t say no fast enough. Pass.
Firing Line—(Line of David - Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) gave the more experienced Mr. Z all he could handle in the Los Alamos Futurity through breath taking fractions.  The game colt was nosed out by Dortmund in the shadow of the wire in an exciting blanket finish.  Firing Line’s dam battled the Champion mare Azeri for 1 1/8 miles in the Vanity Stakes (G-1) before being outclassed by only two lengths. Sister Girl Blues is a half-sister to Dwyer Stakes winner MINT LANE.  Firing Line has inbreeding to the blue hen Gold Digger through her son Mr. Prospector, the damsire of Hold for Gold, and Gold Digger is Line of David’s fourth dam.  This colt has a classy pedigree and the talent to go with it.  Contender.
Firing Line—was game as could be while being nosed out by Dortmund in the Los Al Futurity. With the absence of the speedy Mr. Z and in a spot devoid of any real speedsters, I think Firing Line goes to front, has things all his own way and turns the tables on his rival in this much anticipated rematch. He gets a jockey switch to Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who should give the Line of David colt a Hall of Fame trip. Contender.
Dortmund—(Big Brown - Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) took advantage of the drag race fractions set by Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity. Never far back, he gradually made up ground in the stretch to put his nose down first on the wire.  His dam won the Ohio Valley Handicap at six furlongs and placed in a handful of sprint races.  She’s the most accomplished runner in two generations of this distaff line. Dortmund’s third dam is 1977 Champion Juvenile Filly, LAKEVILLE MISS. Read Dortmund’s pedigree profile.  Contender.
Dortmund—Like Laurie stated, Dortmund received a dream trip in the Futurity. He let Mr. Z and Firing Line do all the dirty work before getting up in the shadow of the wire to steal victory from that pair. Normally content to sit just off the pace, I wonder if trainer Bob Baffert, that wily ol’ Silver Fox, isn’t going to have Garcia try to press Firing Line for the lead. His last two recorded works have been quick, which is what led me to ponder that particular train of thought. Whether sitting off the pace or competing for the lead, I think Dortmund is a contender but not necessarily the winner.
 
 
Selections:
 
Track bias: Pace pressers earn the lion’s share of awards over the Santa Anita dirt.
 
 
Laurie: All except three of the last ten R.B. Lewis heroes prepped in a graded stakes.  All except one hit the board in their last start.  Firing Line and Dortmund get a rematch here and with the absence of any real speed in the race, I think Firing Line can hand Dortmund his first defeat. Rock Shandy showed some class in the Sham Stakes and he can improve off of that effort. 
 
 
Ashley: With the exception of the top 2 from the Los Al Futurity, it looks like the field is here to compete for minor awards. Firing Line and Dortmund have the class and repeat efforts from both should propel them back to the top 2 spots. With little speed, Firing Line gets the jump and the edge, and the other 5 will be chasing him around the Santa Anita oval.
 
 
Laurie:
#5  Firing Line
#6  Dortmund
#2  Rock Shandy
#1  Tizcano
 
 
Ashley:
#5 Firing Line
#6 Dortmund
#2 Rock Shandy
#1 Tizcano 

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