Handicapping the Pimlico Special
The last race of Black-Eyed Susan Day, the Grade 3 Pimlico Special at Pimlico Race Course features a field of 10 seasoned older runners. Skip Away winner Commissioner has been made the morning line favorite by the oddsmakers, but is he a lock to win, or rather a vulnerable favorite? You may be surprised to see what Pedigree Power’s Laurie Ross and I have to say about how we see the Pimlico Special shaking out.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| Tapiture—SCRATCHED Will run next in the Grade 3 Lone Star Handicap at Lone Star Park on Monday, May 25. The race is for 3-YOs and up and will be contested at 1 1/16 mile. | Tapiture—SCRATCHED |
| Transparent—is an allowance/restricted stakes class level taking on a strong field of runners. His speed figures aren’t that great and I don’t see him as a factor here. Pass. | Transparent—I think Laurie summed it up best. There was a time in 2013 where it seemed as though Transparent would have a say in the 3-YO division, but those days have come and gone. As it stands, he couldn’t beat Sr Quisqueyano in the Sunshine Millions Classic, so he’s pretty much toast against this group. |
| Encryption—another allowance class colt, he finished in another zip code against Commissioner in the Skip Away Stakes. However, it’s no secret that this is a competitive colt who has finished out of the money only once in his career. Exotics Play. | Encryption—He may have only finished out of the money once in his career, but that was against a field similar to this one. Yes, he’s competitive, but if you think he finished in another zip code in the Skip Away, then he finished in another country in the Haskell when he finished 8th. With that said, he is a danger to spoil someone’s exotic plays. |
| Albano—SCRATCHED | Albano—SCRATCHED |
| Page McKenney—has hit the board in 23 of 34 starts and owns a win over the track. This hard-knocking colt has finished first or second in every try at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Mary Eppler is 0-4 in graded stakes and I don’t see Page McKenney winning here, but it’s no stretch to see him hit the board. Exotics. | Page McKenney—Sports an impressive race record and comes in off a 3rd place finish in the Charlestown Classic. I’m assuming that his 3rd place finish there earned him the chance to compete here, but the bullring that is Charlestown is a far cry from the traditional track that is Pimlico. I like that he’s been training at Pimlico, and that could give him a familiarity advantage. Could play spoiler for a minor placing. |
| Kid Cruz—SCRATCHED Will race next in the $200,000 Mountainview Handicap at Penn National on Saturday, May 30. The race is for 3-YOs and up and is carded at 1 1/8 mile. | Kid Cruz—SCRATCHED |
| Vyjack—has failed in three attempts at 1 1/8 miles and his pedigree and race record indicate that he’s much stronger at shorter distances. Vyjack was crushed by a combined 14 lengths in his first two starts this year. Pass. | Vyjack—was the darling of the New York circuit heading into the 2013 Triple Crown. While he was undefeated up until his 3rd in the Wood Memorial, things quickly went downhill from there with the exception of a nice win in the G2 Kelso Handicap. I really don’t like his chances here thanks in large part to the distance. Pass. |
| Top Billing—returned to racing this year with a heroic effort at Keeneland, missing by a bare nose while flying six wide from the clouds. That effort should set the son of Curlin up for a winning effort in the Pimlico Special. Contender. | Top Billing—Was a brave 2nd in his last start, but let’s face it, he has yet to live up to his “top billing.” He’s flashed a ton of potential in all his career starts but is still seeking his breakout win. Could this be it? Laurie thinks so, and I think the distance sets up perfectly for this son of Curlin. Contender. |
| Cat Burglar—was a very game third in the Pimlico Special last year. After nearly a year off, the Bob Baffert trainee had a strong effort at Churchill in an optional claimer. He obviously needed the race and should bounce back stronger here. He can win from on or off of the pace and has a very good shot at stealing this race. | Cat Burglar—Makes his second start off the layoff and gets jockey Victor Espinoza for the first time. He’s another that only been worse than 3rd once in his career and will prove tough over a track that he has already done well on. He had a strong bullet work on May 11th, and Baffert will have him ready to go. Contender. |
| Commissioner—just missed a victory in the Belmont Stakes last year. The Todd Pletcher trainee battled hard for the win in the Skip Away last time out, earning a career-best speed figure, a 23 point jump from his previous race. Commissioner has been known to toss in a clunker after a strong previous effort and I can see that happening here. Pass. | Commissioner—has had a very up and down race record. He’ll run great one time and then throw in a complete clunker after that, as Laurie pointed out. At 5-2, I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole (Sorry, Will, but I have to pass on Team TAP here) and see him as a vulnerable favorite. Pass. |
How it sets up:
Laurie: There’s a ton of speed in the Pimlico Special and the contest is shaped up to be very contentious. The morning line favorites are very vulnerable and I’m tossing both Tapiture and Commissioner. Top Billing is primed for a monster effort. He’s had three strong works after his last start and should receive a strong pace to set up his late kick. Cat Burglar should also improve off of his last start and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he pulled a sneak attack.
Ashley: There’s a good deal of speed and plenty of tough veterans, but like Laurie, I’m passing on morning line favorite Commissioner and looking elsewhere for some value and a winner. Unlike Laurie, I can’t make myself toss Tapiture. Call me sentimental and biased, but this is a colt I’ve liked since his juvenile year. Top Billing appears to be on the upswing and could finally live up to his hype, and Cat Burglar cannot be overlooked. All in all, this is a good bunch and several are in with a chance.
Edited: The race day scratches of Tapiture, Albano and Kid Cruz change the complexion of this race a good deal. Albano would have been on the front-end contributing to the pace with Tapiture just off the speedsters. Kid Cruz would likely have passed tired foes in the stretch but was not seen as a win threat by either myself or Laurie. With this key scratches in mind, I present my updated selections underneath my original ones.
Selections:
Laurie Ashley
#8 TOP BILLING (12-1) #1 TAPITURE (9-2)
#9 CAT BURGLAR (5-1) #8 TOP BILLING (12-1)
#3 ENCRYPTION (10-1) #9 CAT BURGLAR (5-1)
#5 PAGE MCKENNEY (15-1) #4 ALBANO (8-1)
Edited
#8 TOP BILLING (12-1)
#9 CAT BURGLAR (5-1)
#5 PAGE MCKENNEY (15-1)
#10 COMMISSIONER (5-2)