Handicapping the Jim Dandy Stakes
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Inaugurated in 1964, the Jim Dandy Stakes serves as a prep for the Travers Stakes later in
the Saratoga meet. Named for Jim Dandy, winner of the 1930 Travers Stakes in
which he beat Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox, the race is carded for 1 1/8
mile. Since 2002, six Jim Dandy winners have gone on to win the Travers.
At the current nine furlong distance, Louis Quatorze (1996)
holds the speed record, stopping the clock in 1.47:26. Melnyk Racing and Henryk
de Kwiatkowski hold the record for most wins by an owner with three apiece. John
Velazquez, Jerry Bailey and Eddie Maple, with four wins each, hold the record
jointly for most wins by a jockey. The seemingly indomitable Todd Pletcher
stands alone in the trainer category, holding the win record all by himself
with six victories.
Off since handicapping the Lexington together, Pedigree Power’s Laurie Ross and From
Coast to Coast’s (previously the Florida Filly) Ashley Tamulonis once again put
their collective handicapping prowess together to try to dissect the 3-year old
division. The Jim Dandy session tops a handicapping double header for the week,
as the ladies will also pick apart the Haskell Invitational for your reading
pleasure. So get your past performances ready and enjoy the preview.
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Laurie
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Ashley
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Cousin Stephen—(Proud Citizen—Gallant
Dreamer, by Belong to Me) was all out to win a one
mile allowance/optional claimer at PARX last time out. Not a ringing
endorsement for a step up in class and distance. He should ensure a lively pace for Tonalist
to chase and receives the faded tan award.
Pass.
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Cousin Stephen—He may have been
all out last time, but an argument could be made that he needed the race. He
posted his highest career speed figure in that race and could be dangerous if
the pace is not contentious. Maybe at the right price, but I’m leaning toward
taking a pass.
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Legend—(Tiznow—Royal Tigress, by Storm
Cat) had a wide trip in the Easy Goer Stakes, He’s a half-brother to the sprinter/miler
stakes winner OL
DONYO. This colt has plenty of upside. He’s a later maturing sort and has
never run a bad race. This isn’t the strongest Jim Dandy field, and he has
the running style to be a factor.
Contender
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Legend—You say he has plenty of upside
but I can’t get past the string of second place finishes. Pretty nicely
beaten in the Easy Goer, I believe he will have to do a lot more to stand a
chance here. Pass.
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Ulanbator—(Offlee Wild—Ashapoo,
by Petionville) Is the troubled child of the race.
There’s always one, and you know the type, blocked, stumbled, bumped, clipped
heels. They live for drama and excitement and seem to have an excuse in every
race, yet they are still talented enough to hit the board. The optimistic handicapper wastes his money
on these kinds of horses, always hoping for that perfect trip at long odds. It ain’t gonna happen, especially not here.
Pass.
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Ulanbator—Troubled is
certainly right! I really want to make an argument for this one at 15-1
morning line odds and maybe I can. Despite all the trouble he has run into,
this son of Offlee Wild has done well against some good horses. I’ll be the
optimistic handicapper and give him a shot to hit the board. Contender for
exotics.
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Tonalist—(Tapit -
Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony) is at the other end of the spectrum. He’s
the guy with the looks, breeding and resume to get things done. Belmont Stakes winners and runners-up have
done well in the Jim Dandy. Last
year’s Belmont winner Palace Malice had a dream trip, gently pressing the
pace and then galloping clear by a length on his way to the winner’s circle. In
2011, Stay Thirsty was second in the Belmont and won the Jim Dandy. Tonalist has a late maturing pedigree and
he’s just started to bloom this year.
Contender.
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Tonalist—A two-time graded stakes winner,
the reigning Belmont Stakes winner cuts back in distance to try to stay
undefeated going 9 panels. There’s not much to say as his résumé speaks for
itself. Contender.
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Kid Cruz—(Lemon
Drop Kid - Layreebelle, by Tale of the Cat) has been the big fish in most of
his races against listed stakes types. The one time he faced the top echelon,
the Kid staggered at the back of the pack like he went five rounds with Floyd
Mayweather.
Kid Cruz is a confirmed stalker and these types rarely win the Jim
Dandy. The last horse with this running style to win the Jim Dandy was Street
Sense in 2007. He’s capable of hitting
the board, but the Kid isn’t in Tonalist’s league. Contender for exotics.
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Kid Cruz—Laurie’s pretty spot on. If Kid
Cruz couldn’t handle this type in the Preakness, landing in a similar spot to
try to get a second graded score doesn’t bode well for him. I can see him
rounding out the exotics, but that’s about it.
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Commanding Curve—(Master Command - Mother, by Lion Hearted) is Golden Soul
part duex. Both were my longshot pick in the Kentucky Derby. Both flopped in
the Belmont Stakes. I fell for it last
year, I’m not going to do it again. Pass.
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Commanding Curve—I’m willing to
give this one another shot off the cutback. Aside from his debut, that was
his worst career race and was asked to go a distance most don’t run anymore.
Contender for exotics.
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Wicked Strong—(Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey, by Charismatic) is another one
who makes a furious rush, usually going wide, only to not quite get there at
the end. Other than his maiden
victory, Wicked Strong’s claim to fame is a victory in the Wood Memorial. The
rest of the time, he’s either third or fourth. If Tonalist stubs a hoof,
Wicked Strong has the late pace figures to surprise. Besides, he’s trained by
Jimmy Jerkins, son of the Giant Killer, Allen Jerkins. Contender
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Wicked Strong—I really liked
him for both the Derby and the Belmont, and though he didn’t win either, he
didn’t embarrass himself either. He should get some pace to run at, and out
of all the late runners, I like him best. Contender.
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Conclusion:
All drawn to the inside, Cousin Stephen, Legend, Ulanbator and Tonalist will
comprise the first flight of horses; and Kid Cruz, Commanding Curve, and Wicked
Strong will sit just in behind them. Cousin Stephen went to the lead last out
and could very well do so again. I see Tonalist and Legend right there in the
mix with Ulanbator close up but probably content to run in about fourth.
Cousin Stephen cut some brisk fractions in the first half last out before
coming home in a slow 50:46 last half for the mile run. Should he carve out
those fractions again and take some of the other frontrunners with him, that
should set up nicely for a late run from the outside trio. The stalker type
might not generally win the Jim Dandy, but they look to stand a good chance
here.
Selections
Laurie:
Tonalist, Legend, Wicked Strong, Kid Cruz
Ashley: Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Ulanbator, Commanding
Curve
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