Handicapping the Honeybee Stakes
The Honeybee Stakes (G2) is the second of Oaklawn Park’s three prep races for 2016 Kentucky Oaks contenders. A contentious field of six fillies will travel 1 1/16 miles, some of them for the first time. The winner will earn 50 Oaks qualifying points, while the runner-up through 4th place finishers will pick up 20, 10 and 5 points respectively.
Unfortunately for the field, a Honeybee victory has yet to translate into a Kentucky Oaks win, with the best Kentucky Oaks finish for any winner being second. The last Honeybee winner to hit the board in the Run for the Lilies was Ermine who finished 2nd to longshot Lemons Forever in 2006. Prior to that, 1999 winner Dreams Galore was the runner-up to Silverbulletday in that year's Kentucky Oaks. Imaginary Lady is the third and only other Honeybee winner to run well at Churchill in May, also managing 2nd when facing Open Mind in 1989.
With Oaks points on the line, Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and I sort through this short but competitive field looking for a Queen Bee.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| Cosmic Evolution (Proud Citizen - Laheen, by Ghostzapper) has broken sharply in three of her four starts. She stumbled in the Mountaineer Juvenile Fillies Stakes but made a huge move from last to get up for third place. Cosmic Evolution was an easy winner in her come back race. No blacktype in the first two generations of her female family, but the class skipped to her. Stretching out shouldn’t be a problem. Speed on the Bo-Rail. Contender.
| Cosmic Evolution—Jockey Calvin Borel must thing pretty highly of this filly as he has been aboard her for all four of her previous lifetime starts no matter which track she raced at. She posted a career-high 82 speed figure in her 2016 debut but will be traveling 1 1/16 mile for the first time. Trainer Lon Wiggins gets just 15% winners coming in off 31-60 day layoffs and has been shooting 0% stretching his trainees out from sprints to routes. |
| Dorodansa (Bellamy Road - Fiery Dancer, by Atticus) has been a bridesmaid in her last three starts. She was behind a wall of horses and had to switch to the outside in the Martha Washington, while closing well for third place. Her stakes winning dam is a full sister to the popular graded stakes veteran Atticus Kristy and to Lexington Stakes winner Distorted Reality. She should appreciate the extra distance. Contender.
| Dorodansa—showed tenacity when overcoming a poor start and traffic to get up for third in the Martha Washington. I'm not sure just how much that extra sixteenth of a mile will help her but it certainly won't hurt. A better start gives her less work to do against a similar group as last time, making her a serious contender. |
| She's A Bootsy Too (Misremembered - Tap My Feet, by Kingmambo) is the field’s lightly raced undefeated winner taking on stakes horses and distance for the first time. Her speed figures are modest, but there are no Songbirds in the Honeybee. There’s strong turf class three generations back in her pedigree. Exotics contender.
| She's A Bootsy Too—There's something to be said for a local runner that obviously likes the track. Since she isn't the only filly trying this distance for the first time, She's A Bootsy Too stands as good a chance as any. Trainer Kellyn Gorder sends out 23% winners when stretching from a sprint to a route, and a speed figure improvement like the one from her maiden win to her recent allowance win will make her competitive with the best of this field. |
| Nickname (Scat Daddy - Nina Fever, by Borrego) was just out-finished in the Martha Washington. She was hounded much of the way and had to alter course around the turn. She got a little tired, and was just nipped by Marquee Miss, who had a much better trip. She’s the class of the field and should improve off of the layoff. Win Contender.
| Nickname—gave a nice accounting of herself in her 2016 debut in the Martha Washington. I have to agree with Laurie in that Nickname will only improve off that start. Her 96 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is the highest speed figure in the field and would get the job done. Win contender. |
| Terra Promessa (Curlin - Missile Bay, By Yes It's True) is the only filly in the field with a victory at 1 1/16 miles. Make that two victories. She romped by nine in her 3YO debut here, Terra Promessa’s dam is a stakes winning sprinter. Asmussen & Santana teamed up to win the 2014 Honeybee with Euphrosyne. Terra Promessa could take a step forward in a big way. Win Contender. | Terra Promessa—Her speed figures have improved with each start, and she took to the Oaklawn track in a BIG way when she romped by 9 lengths in an allowance race. Trainer Steven Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. team up to produce 21% winners. A nice series of maintenance breezes should have her fit and ready to roll. Contender.
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| Marquee Miss (Cowboy Cal - Marquee Delivery, By Marquetry) had the benefit of a good trip and recent start under her girth in the Martha Washington. She won the Dixie Belle in her 3YO debut. Improving speed figures and a second to last bullet work will make her very tough. Trainer Ingrid Mason conditioned last year’s Honeybee winner Sarah Sis. Win Contender.
| Marquee Miss—Is another that likes the Oaklawn track as she is now 2-for-2 over its surface with both victories coming in stakes races. Her last two works have been faster than her competitions', leading me to believe that trainer Ingrid Mason is going to want her sharp out of the gate and after the lead. Jockey Channing Hill opted to stay aboard Marquee Miss rather than rival She's A Bootsy Too, giving me a good indication of who is the better filly. Contender.
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Final Thoughts
Laurie:
None of these fillies are need the lead types, but most like to be pressing the pace. This is a closely matched field, so I see it as a jock’s race. Cosmic Evolution has speed from the rail. She’s adding distance, but had a 6F work in race winning time, so she should be fit. She’ll play catch me if you can. Her jockey Calvin Borel employed those tactics in 2013, taking Rose to Gold gate to wire. Marquee Miss is no slouch either, she has :21 speed on the outside of a short field. How good is Terra Promessa? Are we looking at an Asmussen exacta? In a closely matched short field, why not go with a longshot?
Ashley:
I think Laurie is absolutely right in that it will be Cosmic Evolution from the rail and Marquee Miss from the outside looking for the lead. The other four fillies will sort themselves out right behind those two, and I don't see the field being spread out over a lot of ground. This is a tough field to suss out as an argument can be made for the entire field.
SELECTIONS:
Laurie: Ashley:
#1 COSMIC EVOLUTION (10-1) #5 TERRA PROMESSA (5-2)
#5 TERRA PROMESSA (5-2) #2 DORODANSA (6-1)
#6 MARQUEE MISS (3-1) #4 NICKNAME (7-5)
#4 NICKNAME (7-5) #6 MARQUEE MISS (3-1)