Handicapping the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth
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Quick, name the last
horse to capture both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth Stakes. That would be Booklet, way back in 2002. To be fair, since 2000, only six colts who
won the Holy Bull also raced in the Fountain of Youth.
Rick Violette, trainer
of Holy Bull Stakes hero Upstart, expressed worries that the colt will “bounce,”
or regress, in the Fountain of Youth. He
has good reason to be concerned as the Florida three-year-olds move closer to the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Other
than the aforementioned Booklet, Holy Bull victors finished second (twice),
third, fourth and ninth in the Fountain of Youth. In 2007, Scat Daddy was third to Nobiz like
Showbiz in the Holy Bull, and their positions reversed in the Fountain of
Youth.
This year’s edition of
the 1 1/6 mile Grade 2 event drew nine horses, five of whom exit the Holy Bull
Stakes. Laurie Ross, of Pedigree
Power, and I draw our own conclusions about the race.
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LAURIE
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ASHLEY
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JUAN AND BINA—(Indian Charlie - Caressing, by Honour and Glory) has
twice watched the receding hindquarters of Bluegrass Singer. The son of Indian Charlie tried a new tactic
of sitting off of the pace in the Holy Bull, with poor results. The colt was hard to rate and finished
fourth, 9 ½ lengths behind Upstart. Juan and Bina is a half-brother to Gold Hawk (Empire
Maker), who was third in last year’s LeComte Stakes. So far, the over-priced offspring of Champion Two Year Old Filly Caressing haven’t lived up to
their blue-blooded pedigrees. If Juan and Bina goes back to his front running
tactics, he could ensure a quick pace. Pass.
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Juan and Bina—Twice now
Juan and Bina has shown little in the company of the same rivals he’ll face
in the Fountain of Youth. That’s more than enough to make me look elsewhere.
Pass.
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BLUEGRASS SINGER—(Bluegrass Cat - Aguilera, by Unbridled's Song) had
every opportunity to steal the Holy Bull with a front running score over the
speed favoring track, but once Upstart and Frosted started their runs, the pretty
gray gelding was no match for the top pair, finishing a distant third.
Bluegrass Singer hit his peak in an allowance race in December and his
subsequent speed figures have declined.
Pass.
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Bluegrass Singer—He failed to
steal the Holy Bull on the front end in his last outing, but he now gets a
chance to redeem himself on the same track, racing the same distance and
facing some of the same rivals. His speed figures may have declined since
that allowance race in December, but it’s not like they took a steep
nosedive. Even if he fails to hold the lead to the wire, I see Bluegrass
Singer hanging on to collect a check worth more than the 1% designated to the
sixth through last place finishers.
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FRAMMENTO—(Midshipman - Ginger Bay, by Golden Missile) fell
to pieces in the Holy Bull, with an uncharacteristic eight place finish. The
Zito trainee gets first time blinkers and a jock switch to Johnny V. Zito won
the Fountain of Youth in ’05 with High Fly and ’08 with Cool Coal Man, while
John Velazquez has guided the winner in four of the last eight races. I’m
inclined to give this guy another shot. Exotics.
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Frammento—He might have
fallen apart in the Holy Bull, but what was Frammento’s excuse in the
allowance race prior to the Holy Bull? That makes twice that Frammento has
not been able to get the better of Bluegrass Singer, let alone Upstart and
Frosted. The jockey and equipment change does give hope for improvement, but
I decline to jump on board with you, Laurie.
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GORGEOUS BIRD—(Unbridled's Song -
Elusive Bird, by Elusive Quality) has improved slowly in each of his three
starts. He galloped home a seven
length winner in his first start of the season in a slow 1:39. The pretty gray colt is a half-brother to
Pow Wow Wow (Indian Charlie) who finished third in the 2013 edition of the
Forward Gal Stakes (G-2). Their unraced dam is a daughter of Champion Three
Year Old Bird Town, who is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone.
Note that half of the last ten winners of the Fountain of Youth prepped in an
allowance race at Gulfstream. Contender.
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Gorgeous Bird—The final
time was nothing to write home about, but what you forget, Laurie, is that
Gorgeous Bird did not set the pace. He closed from near last into pedestrian
fractions to run away with the victory. I really like the improvement this
handsome gray has shown in his three career starts. I think as he continues
to progress and the distances get longer, Gorgeous Bird will turn into one to
watch out for. Contender.
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ITSAKNOCKOUT—(Lemon Drop Kid -
Stormy B, by Cherokee Run) is a perfect 2-2, both starts coming at
Gulfstream. By comparison to Gorgeous
Bird, the Pletcher trainee got a mile in a solid 1:35 just twenty days
earlier over a similar class of allowance foes. Itsaknockout is a half-brother
to the multiple stakes winning miler Storm Power (Tiz Wonderful). Their dam is a half-sister to the graded
stakes winning turf router Rush Bay and the multiple stakes placed
sprinter/miler Miss Inclined. This is the distaff family of 2012 Kentucky
Oaks heroine Believe You Can. Luis Saez gave up the mount on Frammento to
stick with Itsaknockout. Plenty of
potential here. Contender.
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Itsaknockout—He may have
gotten the mile in a solid 1:35 at Gulfstream, but like Gorgeous Bird,
Itsaknockout is either helped or hindered by the pacesetter. In Gorgeous Bird’s
case, the pacesetter cut slow fractions but Gorgeous Bird was able to
overcome the slow pace and mow down his competition. Similarly, Itsaknockout
was close to a more contentious pace but was able to run right past the
leaders. Both cases reflect well on the winner despite the final time of
Itsaknockout’s race looking better than that of Gorgeous Bird. Contender.
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FROSTED—(Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) was iced out in
the Holy Bull after being stuck on the rail behind the speed for much of the
race. He thawed slightly to out finish Bluegrass Singer for second place. Not
a particularly bad start to his three year old season and the pretty gray son
of Tapit should build on that race. I
expect to see a better performance here and I don’t see Ortiz sticking
Frosted on the rail again. McLaughlin won the Fountain of Youth with Soldat
in 2011. Contender.
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Frosted—The good news
for Frosted is that though he failed as the favorite in his last two races,
his speed figures did not decline. Instead, he ran a 98 in both races after
posting figures of 94, 91, and 66 in his first three starts. Overall, he
continues to improve. With a mid-field post, getting stuck on the rail again
shouldn’t be a problem. Overall, I think Frosted stands a good chance if he
continues to run like he has been. My biggest concern here is the
overwhelming number of 2nd place finishes in his past
performances. A severe case of seconditis indicates to me that he is either a
herd runner or just does not have the competitive drive to see things through
to a victorious end. Contender…but probably only for 2nd place.
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UPSTART—(Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) kicked off his
quest for the roses with a huge score in the Holy Bull. Was the effort too big? He earned a triple digit speed figure, and
even if he regresses slightly off of that number, the Violette charge still
outclasses most of the field. Read
what I had to say about Upstart’s
pedigree. Contender.
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Upstart—Has done very
little wrong in his career and owns the highest speed figure in the field.
The big question for me is whether he continues to run his races or if all
his big efforts prior to the FOY will begin to catch up with him. Contender.
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DANNY BOY—(Harlan's Holiday -
Unbridled Beauty, by Unbridled's Song) is Grade 3 placed over turf. In his sole dirt attempt, the pretty gray
colt finished fourth in the Iroquois, but was floated five wide. Danny Boy is
a half-brother to Arlington Classic hero Meal Penalty (Tale of the Cat), who
has been competitive over dirt, mud, turf and Polytrack. Their dam placed in
the Adirondack Stakes and she’s a half-sister to the multiple stakes winning
sprinter Tax Refund. Danny Boy has a
pedigree oriented for dirt. The one
caveat is his far outside post, guaranteeing another wide trip. Contender for
exotics.
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Danny Boy: Hasn’t raced
since October 31. Has just one traditional dirt start. I don’t want to have
to break out the Aloe, so I’m going to pass up on Danny Boy in favor of some
of the other contenders.
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Track
bias: Gulfstream has a notable speed bias and
outside posts are a disadvantage, unless one has a superior horse. In the last
14 years, five Fountain of Youth winners wired the field, four battled for the
lead and all except two winners sat no farther back than fourth place.
Selections:
Laurie:
I’m going for the upset here. Race history plays against Upstart and even his
trainer has cautioned that the colt may regress. Maybe he’s telling the truth, maybe he wants
better odds at the window. Either way,
I’m going with the newcomer Itsaknockout. I know, it isn’t much of a stretch to pick the Pletcher horse, but if he
wins, he’ll pay better than Upstart. Hopefully.
#5 Itsaknockout
#7 Upstart
#6 Frosted
#4 Gorgeous
Bird – longshot pick
Ashley:
It looks to me as though Bluegrass Singer is going to be the one that wants the
lead the most, and from his post 2 position, he will likely get the lead
easily. I believe Frosted, Upstart and perhaps Juan and Bina will be up close,
too. That leaves the rest of the field to the second flight with Danny Boy as
the early trailer. Overall, I like two of the newcomers best.
#5 Gorgeous Bird—for the upset at good odds
#5 Itsaknockout
#7 Upstart
#2 Bluegrass Singer Read More
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