Handicapping the Besilu Stables Florida Derby

Ashley

Laurie

AMI’S FLATTER—Seems to be a cut below the best of his crop. He finished 4^th behind Ocean Knight in the Sam F. Davis. He then improved a bit to finish 2^nd to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby, but the placing was about the only thing that improved as he was still beaten several lengths just like in the Sam F. Davis. He gets a jock upgrade to Javier Castellano, but I just don’t see him getting up for much more than a minor placing. Exotics.

AMI'S FLATTER (Flatter - Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) rebounded in the Tampa Bay Derby to finish second, but was no match for Carpe Diem.  There’s some quality in this colt’s family.  Ami’s Flatter’s dam is an unraced full sister to stakes winner Victorious Ami, dam of multiple stakes winner Ami’s Holiday, a winner from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ½ miles.   Ami’s Flatter has the pedigree to relish longer distances, but he’s starting to look like a one paced grinder.  A jock switch to Castellano, who won last year’s Florida Derby could help, but I’m with you on this one, Ashley.  Exotics contender.

JACK TRIPP—Could be a whole new racehorse after potentially behavior altering surgery. Until I see him in action sans his manhood, I will reserve final judgement. For now, however, I don’t think trainer Dale Romans and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.’s 60% win stat together will help get this guy to the winner’s circle. Pass.

JACK TRIPP (Flatter - Vindicated Angel, by Vindication) has shown zero, zip, nada in his last three races. He had the ultimate equipment change, which might help keep him focused on racing now that he doesn’t have the fillies on his mind.  He’s been whipped twice at Gulfstream by optional claimers, including a distant fourth place finish to Itsaknockout.  His unraced dam is a half-sister to a listed runner who preferred synthetics and turf.  Why is he in here? Pass.

Indianaughty—I’m really not sure what to make of this son of Indian Charlie. He’s had two nice races and two not so nice races and was well beaten by Metaboss, who himself was well beaten last out in the Spiral, in the El Camino. It seems as though Team Valor is taking a shot on traditional dirt to see if Indianaughty could be KY Derby material. Love the connections, but I’m not liking Indianaughty in this spot. Pass.

INDIANAUGHTY (Indian Charlie - Be Fair, by Exchange Rate) picked a great place to experiment on the dirt.  He won his maiden over Polytrack in England and transferred that form to the Gulfstream turf for an allowance win. Shipping to California, Indianaughty dueled through glacial fractions over Tapeta before throwing it into reverse in the stretch to finish second to last.  The million dollar question is – can he handle the dirt?  Well, he’s bred to run on it.  His dam won the Lake George (G-3) on dirt. She’s a half-sister to Macho Again, winner of the Stephen Foster and Jim Dandy.  Macho Again was second in the 2008 Preakness and 2009 Woodward.  Additionally, all of their half siblings preferred dirt. So, Indianaughty should handle the dirt – but will he run through the kickback and is he up to this caliber of runners is another story.  If you haven’t lost all of your cash in the previous 13 races, why not toss him on your exotics tickets. Exotics Contender.

ITSAKNOCKOUT—Whether or not you agree with the DQ of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one things is for certain: Itsaknockout and Upstart are serious competitors. The DQ kept Itsaknockout perfect in 3 starts, all of which have been at Gulfstream Park. I believe Itsaknockout can win without being put up, but it’s going to need to be a cleanly run race for anyone to truly get behind him. Contender.

ITSAKNOCKOUT (Lemon Drop Kid - Stormy B, by Cherokee Run) got carried out a little bit by Upstart, but it was clear he wasn’t going to win.  They gave him the trophy anyway.  Itsaknockout is a half-brother to the multiple stakes winning miler Storm Power.  Their dam is a half-sister to the graded stakes winning turf router Rush Bay and the multiple stakes placed sprinter/miler Miss Inclined. This is the distaff family of 2012 Kentucky Oaks heroine Believe You Can. Sorry Ashley, not knocking your pick, but I’m leery of Itsaknockout getting 1 1/8 furlongs ahead of everyone else. Contender.

QUIMET—Is a bit of an enigma wrapped in a paradox. Was it the transfer from turf to dirt that helped him improve? Or was it being gelded that turned things around for him? Regardless, there’s no denying that Quimet was a well-beaten 4^th behind fellow starter Materiality in his last outing. I don’t foresee a better finish here. Pass.

QUIMET (Birdstone - Comanche Star, by Saint Ballado) was placed third through DQ in the Islamorada Handicap, but even that didn’t bring him any closer to the winner Materiality. Mentioned on the Kiddie List last August, Quimet is a half-brother to stakes winner Canonize and Bayshore (G-3) winner Declan's Warrior.  Quimet’s third through fifth dams are blue hens.  My comment last year was to keep an eye out for him when he switches to dirt, because he and his half siblings all prefer the surface. Quimet is a “Zito special” He’s been known to pull a fast one in the Florida Derby – Ice Box is a prime example. Unfortunately, last year, I thought he’d pull it off with Spot.  This colt has some potential, but I don’t think he’s ready for this caliber of race just yet.  Pass.

MY POINT EXACTLY—Is the first Florida Derby starter for Pinnacle Racing Stables. The gelded son of Concord Point won his last two outings and has wins on the turf and traditional dirt. The biggest issue here is that My Point Exactly has not raced since September 6, 2014. Now long layoffs aren’t exactly detrimental, but sometimes a horse needs a race to get back into tip top shape. I trust that trainer William Kaplan knows what he’s doing; however, and it might be worth it to take a shot with this one. Maybe.

MY POINT EXACTLY (Concord Point - My Golden Quest, by Coronado's Quest) will attempt to win a 1 1/8 mile race over the dirt after winning a one mile stakes on the turf last September.  I see this a totally different way, Ashley. Either the racing secretary was calling in favors to fill the Florida Derby field or somebody in the barn has been smoking the hay. The pretty gray gelding’s dam is a multiple stakes winning half-sister to My Golden Song, who paced in the 2006 Holy Bull Stakes. His second dam is a multiple stakes earner of over $300,000.  My Point Exactly has won over the dirt, but this is a very odd place for him to make his three year old debut. Add him to the “Why is he in here” list. Pass.

MATERIALITY—Two races, two convincing wins for this son of Afleet Alex. Owned by Alto Racing, Materiality boasts trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez in his corner, a duo that should never, ever be ignored at Gulfstream. I really like how Materiality was able to stretch out from 6 furlongs to 9 and how well he has handled both a sloppy and a fast track. He’s looking mighty dangerous to me. Contender.

MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex - Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) is the “other” Pletcher horse. He’s been perfect in two starts, both at Gulfstream, including a 5 ¾ length win in the Islamorada Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. He beat Quimet by 16 lengths that day.  The well-bred colt is a half-brother to My Miss Sophia, who galloped to a 7 ¼ length victory in the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle (G-2).  She also finished second in the Kentucky Oaks to Untapable. Their dam is a stakes winning sprinter who is a half-sister to the graded stakes veteran Eye of the Tiger. Another half-sister bore Travers winner Afleet Express. I agree with you on this guy, Ashley. He’s a late improving colt who should have a say in the Florida Derby results. Contender.

DEKABRIST—Has the monopoly on experience in this field, but all the experience in the world cannot make up for a lack of pure talent. He looked promising when breaking his maiden in a stakes race, but his career has been all downhill from there as he has not yet found the winner’s circle again in his 11 subsequent starts. Pass.

DEKABRIST (Street Boss - Shutterbug, by Deputy Minister) cost $50K as a yearling and they’ve spent more than that in entry fees alone. The poor horse made 13 starts, three starts just in January and hasn’t hit the board since last June. Add him to the “Why is he in here” list. Pass.

UPSTART— In Upstart and Itsaknockout, I have flashbacks to Wildcat Red and General a Rod last year. While the former’s finishes have not been as close as the latter’s were, they have still been thrilling nonetheless. Upstart seeks redemption in the Florida Derby after being DQed for interference in the Fountain of Youth. That finish aside, Upstart has still done little wrong, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. Contender.

UPSTART (Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) regressed slightly speed figure wise in the Fountain of Youth after a huge score in the Holy Bull. He got a little tired, drifted and it cost him a photo in the Fountain of Youth winner’s circle, despite pulling away from Itsaknockout by 2 ¾ lengths.  The Violette charge outclasses this field and despite drawing the far outside post, Jose Ortiz can put Upstart in a good position.  Read what I had to say about his Kentucky Derby chances.  Contender.