Handicapping the Arkansas Derby

Laurie

Ashley

Discreetness (Discreet Cat - Fondness, by Elusive Quality) will get a rail trip this time around. He was going the wrong way when the real running started in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. Despite the rail spot I’m not convinced that he wants to go past a mile. Discreet Cat has a few winners at 1 1/16 miles, but the majority of his babies are sprinter/milers. Pass.

Discreetness—Hasn't done a thing since taking two consecutive listed stakes. Once he moved up to graded stakes company, he has only managed a pair of 7^th place finishes (Southwest, Rebel) against this same group. I don't particularly like that his final tune-up work was a 3-furlong move, and I do not see him making any sort of significant improvement off his last two races. Pass.

Cutacorner (Even the Score - Pathologist, by Gone West) had a worse performance than Discreetness in Oaklawn’s previous preps. Nothing more to say. Pass.

Cutacorner—Another that has faced this group twice now and has not hit the board. He finished 9^th in the Southwest and 8^th in the Rebel. Trainer Jack Van Berg is 0-for-16 in stakes races. Pass.

Creator (Tapit - Morena (PER), by Privately Held) is one of three sons of leading sire Tapit in the Arkansas Derby. After winning his maiden, the pretty gray colt acquitted himself nicely in the Rebel Stakes, gaining ground to finish a willing third behind Cupid after going very wide on the turn. Creator is the first foal for a two-time Peruvian Champ. One of two colts conditioned by Steve Asmussen, Creator should benefit from his stalking style and extra ground. Not sure he can win it, but he’s definitely an underneath play.

Creator—As Laurie stated, Creator stepped up nicely in the Rebel last time out. He finished third, just 3 lengths behind Cupid, the winner, and did so by closing from the back of the field. I was not too high on him in the Rebel, but he showed something nice and has made me think twice about him since. He finished up the Rebel full of run which make me think the extra sixteenth of the Arkansas Derby will be right up his alley. Contender.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft - Uchitel, by Afleet Alex) finished out of the money for the first time in his career in the Rebel. Yes, he had to steady slightly, but the colt quickly got going again and was one-paced down the stretch. Note that he wins every other race. His pedigree profile says that he screams for more distance, but he’ll need to run back to his Southwest performance to be competitive here. I’m inclined to give him a pass on his Rebel performance, regressing after a huge victory in the Southwest. Contender.

Suddenbreakingnews—I'm honestly not sure what to do with Suddenbreakingnews, personally. I thought he stood a good chance in the Rebel, but his mild rally was only good enough to earn him a 5^th place finish. He was out-finished by the 2nd through 4^th place finishers, making him suspect here. I can't completely write him off, however, so maybe an exotics play.

American Pioneer (Awesome Again - Makoma, by Malibu Moon) won his maiden just 2/5 a second slower in the race after the Rebel. The late bloomer has the pedigree to handle classic distances. If the Wayne Catalano trainee runs back to his last score, he’ll be dangerous. Contender.

American Pioneer—Lost to Dazzling Gem in his debut, partially due to being steadied at the 3/8-ths pole. He won next out going 1 1/16 mile here at Oaklawn, and I'm pretty excited to see that Wayne Catalano is going ahead and swinging for the fences. As highly as I think of Dazzling Gem, I like this colt better and think he's in with a shot despite the lack of experience. Contender.

Unbridled Outlaw (Unbridled's Song - Letgomyecho, by Menifee) got a little tired in his first race of the year, but likely wasn’t cranked up for the effort. There’s more speed than stamina in his distaff line, Unbridled Outlaw’s dam is a G2 winner. Traveling 1 1/8 miles in his second start off of a layoff with only two moderate 5 furlong works could leave the Dale Romans colt a little short, especially if he’s forwardly placed early. Exotics.

Unbridled Outlaw—Was a non-menacing 12^th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to complete his freshman campaign, but the Dale Romans trainee returned off a layoff to run a nice 2^nd in his 3-year old debut last month. The 108 E Speed figure he earned for that effort is tied for the highest speed figure in the field. In his first three starts, Unbridled Outlaw had a knack for finding trouble, but that seems to have resolved itself in his last two outings. His last out speed figure puts him at the top of the field, but his 12^th place finish in the BC and 3^rd place finish in the Iroquois (behind weaker company) throw up red flags for me. It's possible that he's improved with time, but I like others better. Pass.

Dazzling Gem (Misremembered - Dazzler, by Vindication) pressed the pace in the Louisiana Derby, but started backing up just before the ¾ pole. He won the nod for third place, over five lengths behind the winner. Brad Cox’s charge doesn’t have an optimal pedigree for middle distances. Pass.

Dazzling Gem— Laurie, here's where you and I disagree. Prior to the Louisiana Derby, I stated that one of the reasons why I liked this colt was because of American Pioneer, a colt Dazzling Gem faced and beat in his debut. Dazzling Gem didn't win the LA Derby, but he sure did me proud by running a bang up third that day. He gets another shot to make the Kentucky Derby field here, and I still like him, though he will once again need to face and beat American Pioneer. Contender.

Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect - Melody's Spirit, by Scat Daddy) posed a serious threat to Cupid in the late stages of the Rebel, but the gray colt was able to repel the game gelding by 1 ½ lengths. Whitmore has been out of the money only once. He owns the only blacktype in three generations of his family, and this gelding tries hard every time. Contender.

Whitmore—Likes Oaklawn, but does he like to win? He finished 2^nd in both the Southwest and the Rebel; in the Southwest he was out-finished by Suddenbreakingnews, and in the Rebel, Cupid was just too good on the front end. I want to like him, but the best I can do is justify him for exotics use.

Luna de Loco (Malibu Moon - Fancy Prancer, by Bertrando) was out of the money in the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes. He came back to conquer optional claimers in the mud. Four half siblings are multiple stakes earning sprinter/milers. The stablemate to Creator appears a cut below. Pass.

Luna de Loco—Was well beaten by this group in the Southwest. He bounced back for a nice allowance score in the slop in his last outing, but regular rider Ricardo Santana, Jr. has elected to stay aboard Creator. I trust his judgment. Pass.

Cupid (Tapit - Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius) galloped around the Oaklawn oval in the Rebel Stakes relaxed and on his own terms. When headed by Whitmore, the pretty gray colt repelled his rival and found another gear. Bob Baffert has conditioned two recent winners of the Arkansas Derby, Bodemeister and American Pharoah. Cupid’s Pedigree profile states that he should handle the distance and is rapidly improving. Contender.

Cupid—Every time I hear this colt's name, all I can think about is the song Mandy Moore sings in The Princess Diaries. Anyone else? No? Okay, moving on then...Cupid was very impressive when stepping up in company in the Rebel, scoring a facile win for trainer Bob Baffert. The outside post concerns me a bit, but Cupid has shown in the past that he does not need the lead in order to win. However, Martin Garcia will have to hustle him out of the gate in order to prevent getting parked wide throughout the race. A good trip will make him hard to beat, and we all know how much Baffert likes to win this race. Contender.

Gray Sky (Tapit – Trickski, by Peteski) came within 1 ½ lengths of Cupid in the stretch of the Rebel. Then his cloud burst and he washed away to sixth place. Gray Sky’s pedigree indicates that 1 1/16 miles is at the top of his scope. He’s a half to Florida 3YO Champion filly, the sprinter Dearest Trickski. I’m not sure if Ashley was born the last time D. Wayne Lukas won the Arkansas Derby, Pass.

Gray Sky— Laurie, you called it. The last time Lukas won the Arkansas Derby was way back in 1985, and I wasn't even thought of yet. As for Gray Sky...well, he has yet to beat the best of this field, and I do not foresee that changing here. The gray son of Tapit gets yet another jockey change, something you never like to see at this level; Ramon Vazquez will be his 8^th different pilot as Gray Sky enters the starting gate for career race 9. The fact that Florent Geroux, who was aboard Gray Sky in the Rebel, does not even have a mount in the Arkansas Derby speaks volumes. Pass.

Gettysburg (Pioneerof the Nile - L. A. Devine, by Pulpit) played the merry-go-round game in the Sunland Park Stakes in his previous start. He wasn’t going to catch a loose on the lead Collected, but Gettysburg marched on and gained a couple of lengths at the end. Gettysburg has the pedigree to handle classic distances and he and Belmont Stakes hero Drosselmeyer share the same fourth dam. Todd Pletcher won back-to-back editions of the Arkansas Derby with Overanalyze and Danza. Contender.

Gettysburg—Is another that I'm not sure what to do with. He ran 5^th in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay and 2^nd in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes. The fact that he hails from the Todd Pletcher barn makes him worth a look, but I like the “local” runners better. Could be a good play underneath, however.