Handicapping the Arkansas Derby

Laurie

Ashley

THE TRUTH OR ELSE  (Yes It's True - Lakenheath, by Colonial Affair) made a huge move from last place in the Southwest Stakes. He took the long way ‘round and hung slightly in the stretch. That set him back in the Rebel when he had his tail handed to him by American Pharoah.  The Truth Or Else is a half-brother to multiple stakes placed Fighter Wing. Their dam won the G-3 Silverbulletday, Arlington Matron and Truly Bound Handicaps. She’s the most accomplished runner in to generations of this distaff line.  The Truth or Else seems a cut below the best. His only victory is a maiden win and when he does hit the board, it’s a best of the rest scenario. Pass.

The Truth Or Else—I went for the upset with The Truth or Else in the Rebel, but unfortunately things did not work out quite the way I had envisioned. It seems he bounced a bit from his nice Southwest run as he only managed a very even 4^th in the Rebel, 10 lengths behind runaway winner American Pharoah. The presence of Mr. Z makes me think that the pace will be quicker this go ‘round, making a late run from this colt more manageable. At 15-1, I have to take another swing with McPeek’s entry for at least a spot in the exotics.

MR. Z (Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat) what more can I say about him? He has a 1-11 race record, hasn’t had down time since last July and has the appearance schedule to rival a major rock band on tour. Blinkers go back on after a disastrous 20 length loss in the Louisiana Derby. Toss him on your exotics ticket, as usual.

Mr. Z—Loveable Mr. Z just can’t win for losing. Top Kentucky Derby contenders Carpe Diem, Dortmund, Firing Line, Far Right and International Star have all gotten the better of him thus far, and it’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Of all the contenders heading for Churchill Downs, Mr. Z is likely the most heavily raced but has an uneven proportion of seconds and thirds in comparison to his lone career win. With just 14 Derby points, the Zayat color bearer desperately needs to finish well here if he is to go on to Churchill Downs for a shot at wearing the Roses. If nothing else, he could ensure a livelier pace on the front end than what we saw in the Rebel, but I just don’t see Mr. Z actually winning this. However, I agree with Laurie; leave him off your exotics placings at your own risk.

BRIDGET'S BIG LUVY  (Tiz Wonderful - Memories of Mystic, by Dixie Union) won the 1 1/8 mile Private Terms on his own terms over a sloppy track at Laurel in a yawn inducing 1:51.4.   Bridget’s Big Luvy is a half-brother to the multiple listed turf sprinter/miler Mystic Love.  He has a good work pattern, including a sharp 4F breeze at Oaklawn.  Not sure of his class level, since he didn’t get a fair shot in the Hutcheson Stakes, but  toss him in for a long-shot chance to hit the board. Exotics.

Bridget’s Big Luvy—Before I get to Bridget himself, it needs to be stated that there could be a jockey switch depending on the outcome of Angel Cruz’s examinations at the Jamaica Hospital Medical Center. The apprentice jockey was thrown hard to the ground in Thursday’s 8^th race at Aqueduct and was carried off on a stretcher before being transported to the hospital for possible head injuries. Initial reports are that Cruz has checked out okay, but head injuries can be tricky things. Bearing that in mind, Bridget’s Big Luvy is already a 20-1 outsider and the possible loss of one of the nation’s leading apprentices might not bode well depending on who Englehart is able to get to replace Cruz. Like Madefromlucky, “Bridget” already owns a win at 9 panels, but that was in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel, but as Laurie pointed out, that came on in his own terms and in a very slow time. Both career wins have come on muddy tracks, so if the weather should be poor for the AR Derby like it was for the Rebel, then “Bridget” has to be taken into account. Otherwise, pass.

MADEFROMLUCKY (Lookin At Lucky - Home From Oz, by Pulpit) beat up on maidens and optional claimers, but  chased a loose on the lead American Pharoah in the Rebel while cutting back in distance.  Madefromlucky is a half-brother to Japanese stakes placed A Shin Gold, who placed in the Japan Dirt Derby. Madefromlucky’s dam is a full sister to the leading sire Tapit.  We know he can win at this distance. If Mr. Z and American Pharoah tire each other out, look for Madefromlucky to be right there. Todd Pletcher won the last two editions of the Arkansas Derby. Contender.

Madefromlucky—Laurie, you and I both liked this colt in the Rebel, and he did not disappoint. In fact, as I recall, you had the American Pharoah-Madefromlucky exacta. I have to say, after the Rebel, I like Madefromlucky even more. He’s already got a win at the 9 furlong distance, and he’s proved that he can run well on both fast and sloppy going. He was obviously no match for the Eclipse Champion in their last outing, but so long as he runs back to his last three performances, he will be just fine. Contender.

BOLD CONQUEST (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) hasn’t been a threat in his last three starts while picking up a check for a minor placing.  I don’t see that changing here.  Bold Conquest’s dam One for Jim is a multiple stakes miler. He has the pedigree to run all day, but either hasn’t put it together or is just a cut below. Pass.

Bold Conquest—Asmussen trained Bold Conquest could also see a jockey change before going to post on Saturday as Ricardo Santana, Jr. is currently fighting double pneumonia. At 20-1, Bold Conquest has been made an outsider despite a 4^th place finish in the Southwest and a 3^rd place finish in the Rebel. He appears to be more of a grinder type of runner, and his speed figures indicate that he just isn’t up to par with the best of this bunch. He could fill out the exotics again, but a win would be too much to ask.

AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) is the speed and class of the race. He’s had everything his own way in previous starts and with little speed in here other than from Mr. Z, I don’t see that changing.  The only thing that can trip him up is a bad break or pressure at this distance.  Read his pedigree profile. Contender.

American Pharoah—The only negative I have for American Pharoah right now is that the Zayats misspelled “Pharaoh.” That’s just me being a spelling and grammar Nazi, but in all seriousness, what has American Pharoah done wrong? He won the Rebel just the way he was supposed to, and a similar effort against many of the same foes will see him getting his photo taken post-race again. Contender.

FAR RIGHT (Notional - Zindi, by Vindication) won the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes, but skipped the Rebel. Class skipped a generation in his female family, as he’s the only stakes winner in two generations, however, his second dam is a half-sister to the multiple G-1 stakes winning veteran Big Jag, hero of the Dubai Golden Shaheen and many other stakes races.  Far Right has two knocks against him.  One is his late pace running style in a race with little speed. The other is his miler pedigree.  One may cancel out the other.  He’s still a quality colt and has to be considered.  Contender.

Far Right—Loves Oaklawn. He apparently has an affinity with jockey Mike Smith and can run on fast or sloppy tracks. And boy does he have a closing kick! With Smith in the irons, Far Right used both that kick and a nice run up the rail, a la Calvin Borel style, to win both the Smarty Jones and the Southwest here at Oaklawn. He’s been off since the Southwest and has yet to face foes of American Pharoah’s caliber. I expect a nice late run up the rail again, but I don’t think it will see him get past American Pharoah. Contender, but not the winner.

WIN THE SPACE (Pulpit - Teamgeist (ARG), by Mutakddim) is still a maiden. He ships in against experienced stakes horses, adds distance and gets a shiny new set of blinkers.  The late maturing colt is a half-brother to Rampart (G-3) heroine House Rules. Their dam is an Argentinian multiple Group stakes winner who was also third in the 1 1/8 mile Spinster (G-1).  Trainer George Papaprodromou is 0-19 with horses stretching out and 0-14 with first time blinkers. Think the connections were hit with Derby fever? Pass.

Win the Space—A half-brother to Grade 3 winner and multiple Grade 2 placed House Rules, Win the Space is still a maiden. Trainer George Papaprodromou is asking a lot of this colt. Aside from asking him to face the likes of American Pharoah while not having a win to his name, Papaprodromou is also asking him to stretch out from 7 furlongs to 9. As seems to be the pattern this year, each 3-year old stake seems to have a token “what the heck are they doing here?” entrant, and Win the Space is it. Pass.