Handicapping the 2017 Fountain of Youth Stakes
Mohaymen and Booklet are the only two colts who have pulled off the Holy Bull Stakes/Fountain of Youth double. To be fair, since 2000, only nine colts who won the Holy Bull also raced in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. In 2015, Upstart pulled off the double, but was DQ’ed from first to second for interference with Itsaknockout in the second leg of Florida’s Triple Crown preps.
This year’s edition of the 1 1/16 mile Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park attracted eleven three year old colts, including the first, second, and fourth place finishers from the Holy Bull. This prep race for 2017 Kentucky Derby contenders offers 50 qualifying points to the winner. With that in mind, Pedigree Power’s Laurie Ross and I attempt to suss out who could run a winning race and who will likely bomb.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| Huracan Americo (Drosselmeyer - Blushing Juliet, by Macho Uno) won the Clasico Derby Nacional, a 1 ½ mile Group 1 event in Peru last year. Note that he did it as a 2YO against older horses. Not a bad pedigree, either. His dam was in the money 28 of 47 starts and she’s half to G3 placed Stolen Time. Shades of 2008, when Tomcito shipped in to finish third in the FL Derby? Could be worth $2 bet for the fun of it. Stranger things have happened.
| Huracan Americo—I’m pretty excited about the Peruvian invader. He only ran 4th in his debut when sprinting 6 ½ furlongs. Two months and one start later, he became a Group 1 winner when he stretched out to 1 ½ miles in the G1 Derby Nacional. I like that his second last work was a stamina building mile and that his last work was a 3 furlong sharpener. South American imports generally do well in California, so I would think that would hold true for South Florida, too. Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado gets the call. This may be a bit short for the long-winded colt, but I think he could still make some noise. Contender. |
| GUNNEVERA (Dialed In - Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled) Gunnevera had his momentum stopped at a crucial point in the Holy Bull Stakes, but once he got going again, he still wasn’t making up ground on Irish War Cry. It was a good effort for his first start back, but the hard-trying colt faces a speed bias. He should improve off the Holy Bull and he’s an include. Read Gunnevera’s Pedigree Profile.
| Gunnevera—Besides favored Irish War Cry, Gunnevera is one of only three entrants that has strung together consecutive triple digit speed figure efforts. He also has the 3rd highest last race speed figure when running 2nd to that rival in the Holy Bull. There’s a few in here that could pressure Irish War Cry on the lead, giving Gunnevera a better chance of turning the tables on that one. Contender. |
| Quinientos (Sky Mesa - Unbridled's Secret, by Unbridled) spent last year as a career maiden until finally switching to dirt. He stumbled at the start of the Just One More Stakes, made a good move around the turn and visibly tired. He’ll need a huge improvement to be competitive here. Pass.
| Quinientos—Honestly, I don’t know what to make of this one. Turf obviously did not work out, and gelding him initially did not either. A switch to dirt improved his showings, but his last race was a loss in a restricted stake after stumbling at the start. Like Laurie, I believe this is too much, too soon. Pass. |
| TALK LOGISTICS (High Cotton - Alotofappeal, by Trippi) chased Sonic Mule in two sprints, then chased Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull. So far, he’s all Talk and no run. Pass.
| Talk Logistics—As the distances have gotten longer, Talk Logistics has placed worse. He did okay up until a mile, but the extra sixteenth really did him wrong in the Holy Bull. Or maybe it was the jump in class. Either way, Talk Logistics was well beaten by this very group. He gets neither class nor distance relief here. Pass. |
| Beasley (Shackleford - In Truth, by Quiet American) set the pace while under pressure, then was crowded and intimidated on the rail by the eventual winner. Surprisingly, no objections were made by Jose Ortiz. Today, Jose’s brother Irad takes over. Beasley doesn’t need the lead and he’s worth a look as an upset play. Exotics Contender.
| Beasley—He might not have won his last two races, but it’s hard to deny that Beasley is rapidly improving. Besides the top two Holy Bull finishers and one other, Beasley is the only one to string together back-to-back triple digit speed figures. Additionally, his 106 on Holy Bull weekend is the second highest last race speed figure. Contender. |
| Practical Joke (Into Mischief - Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor) makes his first start of the year for Chad Brown. He’s posted strong works at Palm Meadows. He may not be geared up for a top effort and I’m not sure how far he wants to run, but he’s an include based upon his 2YO form. Read Practical Joke’s Pedigree Profile.
| Practical Joke—A dual grade 1 winner, Practical Joke is making the Fountain of Youth his 2017 debut. He tasted defeat for the first time in his last outing, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Neither colt that beat him that day is in this race. He ran a career best 103 in defeat that day, two points higher than the 101 he earned in his G1 Champagne victory. The time off concerns me, but it’s obvious that Practical Joke belongs in the top tier of this group. Contender. |
| Three Rules (Gone Astray - Joy Rules, by Full Mandate) looked like the second coming of Smile while destroying state bred competition last year. His reputation was tarnished with a sixth place finish in the BC Juvenile. This year, Three Rules made a decent comeback in the Swale, just missing the victory. Not sure if he can relax enough here against the longer-winded types. Could change the outcome of the race if he hooks Irish War Cry early. Maybe he can stick around for a piece. Exotics Contender.
| Three Rules—After his last races, I really began to think that Three Rules might be a better sprinter than a router. He could not keep up with the best of his class in the BC Juvenile, but he ran a bang up 2nd in the Swale on the Holy Bull undercard when making his 2017 debut. Maybe that was just what the Pinchin trainee needed to get back on track. He blitzed 5 furlongs in a bullet :58.91 in his last serious work. So the question is: does he truly belong in this group or did racing in restricted company make him look better than he really is? |
| IRISH WAR CRY (Curlin - Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers) looked like he was going with the flow of the Gulfstream tide in the Holy Bull. He’s the one to beat. Irish War Cry could be vulnerable if hooked early, unless he can relax. Win contender. Read Irish War Cry’s Pedigree Profile.
| Irish War Cry—When you beat the two-year old champion, especially a champ like Classic Empire, you have to be taken seriously. Undefeated, Irish War Cry has done nothing wrong and posted a strong speed figure in the Holy Bull. He is the one to beat here, for obvious reasons. Winner until proven beatable. |
| Made You Look (More Than Ready - Night and Day, by Unbridled's Song) has one of the best pedigrees in the race and should handle his dirt debut just fine. His second dam is Champion Serena’s Song & the family includes Champion Male Honor Code, & graded stakes winners Grand Reward, Harlington, Sophisticat, and many more. Turf to dirt isn’t normally a good angle in a Derby prep, but this colt’s family is talented over multiple surfaces. Remember Soldat? Pletcher has captured the Fountain of Youth 4 times since 2000. Exotics Contender.
| Made You Look—A grade 2 winner on turf, Made You Look will be making his dirt debut in the Fountain of Youth. Trainer Todd Pletcher wins at a 24% clip when switching runners from turf to dirt. He put in a bullet 4 furlong work over the dirt in his last serious prep. It’s Pletcher at Gulfstream with John Velazquez up, so you would think it would be a lock; however, I’m not big on the turf to dirt angle. On the other hand, I agree with Laurie in that his pedigree does suggest dirt will not be a problem. But ultimately I have to pass. |
| Takaful (Bernardini - Sablah, by Distorted Humor) lacks the ability to relax and has faded like a bad spray on tan in his last two starts. He has a nice distaff family, filled with European class. The McLaughlin trainee should be part of the early pace scenario. Would like to see him on the lawn. Pass.
| Takaful—What to do with Takaful? The colt ran the worst race of any in this field speed figure wise in his last outing. His speed figures have declined from a 101 in his debut, a win, to an 88 while 3rd in the Remsen, to a 34 when 7th in the Jerome back in January. Whether he’s regressing or just simply did not like the Aqueduct track, especially a muddy inner track, remains to be seen. Florida does seem to have agreed with the colt thus far, but if he is going to win this, I’m content to let him beat me. Pass. |
| Lookin For Eight (Lookin At Lucky - Somalia, by Mineshaft) has the pedigree to stretch out. The last out maiden winner takes on a tough crowd here, but his speed figures fit. Exotics Contender.
| Lookin for Eight—Previously trained by Michael Tomlinson, Lookin for Eight will be making his first start for new trainer Mark Casse. He earned a career best 100 speed figure when breaking his maiden in his second and most recent start. He will be stretching out to a two turn route for the first time. Casse gets 16% winners with that angle. Outside posts at 8.5 furlongs at Gulfstream don’t do well. Pass. |
Track bias: Gulfstream has a notable speed bias. In the last 15 years, six Fountain of Youth winners wired the field, four were pace pressers, three were closers, and the rest settled mid-pack early.
Final Thoughts:
Ashley: An interesting game of Musical Horses ensued leading into this race. Jose Ortiz hopped off Takaful, who he rode in all 3 previous career starts, and Beasley, who he rode in his last start, in favor of Practical Joke. The spot aboard Practical Joke opened up when Joel Rosario, who paired with him to win the G1 Champagne, understandably opted to stay with undefeated Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry. Last year, Jose was aboard Practical Joke for his maiden and G1 Hopeful victory. Paco Lopez then picked up the mount on Takaful, who has never ridden, while giving up the mount on Talk Logistics, who he was aboard in that one’s last 3 starts. Joe Bravo will now pilot Talk Logistics, who he has never ridden, while Irad Ortiz, Jr. replaces his brother on Beasley. The last switcharoo was Javier Castellano, who had been aboard Made You Look for all 6 of his career races, deciding to stay with Gunnevera, who he rode to a runner-up finish in the Holy Bull, rather than turf runner Made You Look. Take all that how you want it, but I put a good bit of stock into who these jockeys choose to ride. Sometimes it’s about loyalty, but more often than not, it’s about who has the best chance to win.
Based on 2-year old form, Practical Joke looks tough in here, but too often juvenile form does not carry over to the 3-year old season. Irish War Cry has done nothing wrong thus far, but how will he handle pace pressure? If he’s rank like he was at Laurel, then he won’t come away from this one undefeated. The Peruvian import definitely has my interest, but as previously stated, this may be a bit short for him. Beasley should not be ignored, nor should Gunnevera. It looks like there could be plenty of pace in here, giving colts like Gunnevera a better shot at getting their picture taken. Seems like there’s money to be made here, as well.
Laurie: The three big horses look tough. Irish War Cry threw triple digit late pace speed figures in all three starts. He was unpressured in the Holy Bull. However, in his previous start, Irish War Cry was rank when pressured. He may face early pressure from Takaful, Three Rules aand Talk Logistics. Gunnevera has a start under his girth and the race could set up for him if he doesn’t get stuck on the rail again. The classy Practical Joke may not be cranked to win, but should certainly be a major contender. Made You Look doesn’t flash fast numbers on turf, but he could be a whole different animal on dirt. Beasley and Lookin for Eight are lightly raced, but could be the types that improve quickly. What about the Peruvian mystery? Sure to go off at long odds. If the front runners get leg weary, maybe the American Hurricane can pass tired horses for a piece of the Fountain.
Selections:
Ashley Laurie
#2 Gunnevera (7-2) #2 Gunnevera (7-2)
#5 Beasley (6-1) #8 Irish War Cry (5-2)
#1 Huracan Americo (50-1) #6 Practical Joke (3-1)
#8 Irish War Cry (5-2) #9 Made You Look (10-1)