Handicapping the 2017 San Felipe Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

Term of Art—has seen some of the best of his crop in his last few outings and just has not been able to keep pace. Trainer Doug O’Neill obviously wanted to try this one on turf, but the CB Demille came off the turf and Term of Art won. I reckon that gave his connections the incentive to try the Derby trail, but I cannot for the life of me figure out why they have continued down this path. He did move up in the Robert B. Lewis, but that was against a very short field. Pass.

Term Of Art (Tiznow - Miles of Style, by Storm Cat) is very well bred, but I’m not convinced that he wants to run on the dirt. Just about every race, this guy has been three wide. Wonder what he could do with a rail trip?  If all the speed tires out, maybe he can pass tired horses for a piece. Pass.

Vending Machine—Speaking of turf experiments, Vending Machine ran second to Term of Art in the off-turf Demille, but trainer Peter Miller tried the turf again. Luckily the Eddie Logan stayed on the turf, and lo and behold! Vending Machine won. Please put him back on the surface he prefers. Pass.

Vending Machine (Hard Spun- Maggies Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) hasn’t been delivering against lesser competition. Term of Art beat him easily three starts ago. Vending Machine captured the Eddie Logan on turf two races back. The colt’s half-brother is win-machine Comma To The Top, winner of multiple graded stakes over dirt and turf. Pass

Ann Arbor Eddie—may have cost himself second in the El Camino Real Derby thanks to interference in the stretch, but he also posted a career high speed figure. Now back on the dirt, I’m willing to give him another shot, especially since he ran well against Mastery last year in the Bob Hope after bobbling at the start. I don’t expect a win, but his last race speed figure indicates that he could take home a minor placing.

Ann Arbor Eddie (Square Eddie - Repo, by In Excess (IRE)) has been beating up on state-bred competition. He staggered through the stretch of the 1 1/8 mile El Camino Real Derby last time out. He’ll add to the pace scenario if he can keep up with the more accomplished colts.  Maybe he can hold on for a piece. Exotics.

Mastery—unbeaten and essentially untested, Mastery has already proven adept at the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe distance. He closed out last year with a 7 ¼-length thumping of the Los Alamitos Futurity field going this very distance. He has not raced since, but trainer Bob Baffert has given him plenty of stamina building works as a foundation for his 2017 debut. You can trust Baffert to have his charges ready off a layoff. Win contender.

Mastery (Candy Ride (ARG) - Steady Course, by Old Trieste) lived up to his name last year, whipping the competition by a combined 12+ lengths. Mastery is making his first start of the year, but like Ashley pointed out, he has five strong stamina works under his girth. He isn’t invincible. Sometimes pace horses can get a little too eager in their first start off a layoff. Despite this, he’s still a master contender. Read Mastery’s pedigree profile.

Gormley—has not been favored in any of his four career races, but it’s a good thing that horses don’t always run to their odds. His only loss came in the BC Juvenile when he bobbled at the start and did not get his preferred trip. He’s obviously won on fast tracks, but his career best speed figure, a 116 in the Sham, came on a sloppy track. So is he a better version of Exaggerator or did he simply beat suspect fields in his two wins over fast tracks? Contender.

Gormley (Malibu Moon - Race to Urga by Bernstein) had pre-race jitters before the Sham Stakes, his first start of the year. So much so, that the last out maiden winner, talented American Anthem almost beat Gormley. The talented John Shirreffs charge should be stronger in his second off the layoff and is the one to beat. Read Gormley’s pedigree profile.

Iliad—is the only entrant in this field that has strung together consecutive triple speed figure efforts; however, he did so in sprints. This will be his first attempt routing, and it comes against some tough company. If jockey Flavien Prat can keep Iliad relaxed and nurse his natural speed along, Iliad could pose a huge threat to the top 2. Contender.

Iliad (Ghostzapper - Little Swoon, by You and I) stretches to two turns after an easy three-length victory in the San Vicente Stakes (G2). Iliad has speed to spare. In that G2 contest, he was timed at :44 for the half-mile, three wide under a hold, and he drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths. There’s some stamina in Iliad’s pedigree, he’s a half to the long winded Melmich, who won from 8.5F – 14F. If he gets the right journey, Iliad could be a very tough contender.

Bluegrass Envy—Why? Bluegrass Envy could not win at Gulfstream, so whatever made his connections believe they could ship him to California to face this group and win??? I wouldn’t back this one even if you paid me. No envy here. Pass.

Bluegrass Envy (Any Given Saturday - Emerald Buddha, by Buddha) is still a maiden and ships in from Gulfstream. They couldn’t find a local horse to fill in? Pass.