Handicapping the 2016 Risen Star Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

In Equality (Quality Road - Inish Glora, by Regal Classic) is a ¾ brother to Woodbine Oaks heroine Roan Inish. Their dam was a Canadian Champion Turf Mare, so there’s quality here (excuse the pun), but trainer Leah Gyarmati picks a rough spot for this colt’s first start of the year. In Equality was last seen finishing a very distant third to Flexibility in the Jerome.  All things being equal, I’ll pass on him.

In Equality—Another handicapper also questioned In Equality’s placement here in the Risen Star, but let me say this: As tough a spot as this has turned out to be, I’d much rather run my colt (if I had one) in New Orleans in a tough Derby prep than run the risk of either A) an Aqueduct race, which is wear Gyarmati has her string now, being canceled then rescheduled or B) running in frigid, snowy conditions. Just take it from someone who lives in New England. His recent speed figures are about on par with some of the shorter priced choices in here and he’s had a work over the Fair Grounds course, but ultimately, I’m with Laurie. I have to pass.

Mo Tom (Uncle Mo - Caroni, by Rubiano) easily won the LeComte over Tom’s Ready and Uncle Walter.  He was 1 ¾ lengths third to Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club last year, and Mo Tom was bested by a bare head in the race by one of California’s top Derby contenders, Mor Spirit.  Two of the last seven LeComte heroes have returned to capture the Risen Star.  Mo Tom is a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician and to the stakes winning turf filly Bella Castani, so class isn’t an issue.  One thing concerns me.  Mo Tom should be stronger off of the layoff, but will he continue his good/bad race cycle? Mo Tom’s pedigree indicates that 1 1/16 miles is at the top of his distance range, yet his stalking style will help him.  He’s a definite win contender.

Mo Tom—Laurie, I could hardly call his pair of thirds “bad,” especially since he was not beaten by much. A win at this track over some of the same foes is a definite positive in my book, even more so when you take into account that he hit the gate and was bumped early. Again, I have to agree with Laurie. Mo Tom is certainly a win contender.

Dolphus—SCRATCHED Trainer Joe Sharp announced that Dolphus, half-brother to 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, would be scratched from the Risen Star due to the 20 day turnaround from his last race. Sharp indicated that the Grade 1 Travers, affectionately known as the Midsummer Derby, may be a long term goal for the well-bred son of Lookin At Lucky.

Dolphus—SCRATCHED Trainer Joe Sharp announced that Dolphus, half-brother to 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, would be scratched from the Risen Star due to the 20 day turnaround from his last race. Sharp indicated that the Grade 1 Travers, affectionately known as the Midsummer Derby, may be a long term goal for the well-bred son of Lookin At Lucky.

Bistraya (Haynesfield - Lady Giselle, by Broad Brush) wasn’t in the same zip code when facing Nyquist in the Best Pal (G2) and Mo Spirit in a maiden event last year.  His initial visit to the winner’s circle was in January and he’s shipping in from California. Trainer Ricky Agarie is 0-4 with shippers, and 0-5 in graded stakes.  Pass.

Bistraya—As much as Bistraya has going against him, I have to take a stand for him. Since being gelded in October, Bistraya has been a completely different horse, figuratively and literally. His last two outings have produced nice speed figures, so I see a contender on the upswing. He may not be a serious threat to win, but I would certainly use him underneath to fill out the exotics.

Forevamo (Uncle Mo - Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz) After hanging on to win the Jean Lafitte Stakes by ¾ length and breaking his maiden in the process, the Al Stall, Jr. trainee tossed in an uncharacteristic clunker in the Delta Jackpot. In his first start back, Forevamo chased Candy My Boy around the Fair Grounds oval, finishing second by 2 ¾ lengths. Forevamo is a half-brother to Champion Filly Sprinter Forever Romance. Forevamo has a solid miler pedigree, so he should handle the 1 1/16 miles.  He tuned up with pre-race bullet 5F move.  I don’t see this colt as a win contender, but he’s one in here that could hit the board with a good trip.

Forevamo—This son of Forevamo does seem to appreciate the Fair Grounds track, but I don’t see a lot that I like here. His best speed figures won’t get the job done against the top contenders in this field. His Jean Lafitte win falls into the “But Who Did He Beat?” category. At 12-1 on the morning line, I’ll pass.

Gun Runner (Candy Ride (ARG) - Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway) won his first two starts but hit a wall in the stretch of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.  Gun Runner has an excellent pedigree filled with blacktype. He’s the first foal out of a multiple stakes winning half-sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam. The immediate family includes Mother Goose Stakes heroine Buster’s Ready, Bay Meadows Derby (G3) winner and sire Congressionalhonor, and multiple G1 placed Miss Besilu. Gun Runner should improve with maturity and distance.  He’s making his first start off of the layoff and although he has some flashy works, I don’t see him as a factor in here. It’s a good place to start and look for him a little later in the year. Toss.

Gun Runner—Laurie, Gun Runner may have hit a wall in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but that wall did consist of top contenders Airoforce, Mor Spirit and Mo Tom. He also drifted in both directions when jockey Santana, Jr. went to the whip in the stretch drive. Plus it was a sloppy track. I’m willing to forgive what wasn’t a truly bad loss, especially since Gun Runner gets a jockey upgrade to red hot Florent Geroux. Use.

Its All Relevant (Hard Spun - Ender's Sister, by A.P. Indy) needed six chances to win his maiden. He finally got the job done in January.  I’m not too concerned about his average record as a two-year-old, since the chestnut colt should improve with age. He proved this with an eight length romp over maidens at Gulfstream Park in his three-year-old debut, as lone speed. The half-brother to Indiana Derby (G2) winner Tiz Shea D is taking on a tough task here.  Watch for him down the road, maybe in the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.

Its All Relevant—Since everything is relevant here, I’d like to point out that not only did this son of Hard Spun finally break his maiden when shipping south to Gulfstream and landing in a spot where he was the lone speed, he also did so on a sloppy track. As a Hard Spun baby, his affinity for mud is hardly surprising, but if that is what it’s going to take for him to win, then I’ll pass. With no rain in the forecast tonight or tomorrow for New Orleans, he won’t catch a surface he likes. Pass.

Tom's Ready (More Than Ready - Goodbye Stranger, by Broad Brush) is brought to us by Dallas Stewart, the same trainer who conditioned Golden Soul and Commanding Curve. Both of them exited either a win or second place finish to finish sixth in the Risen Star. Tom’s Ready was second in the LeComte, the same as Commanding Curve two years ago.  This colt’s only victory in seven attempts was when he wired the field in a maiden sprint. Forevamo was second that day.  Tom’s Ready has been beaten by another Mo, Mo Tom, three times and Dolphus once.  I’m predicting Dallas Stewart’s horse finishes sixth for the third straight year, but keep an eye on Tom’s Ready down the road.  Toss.

Tom’s Ready—Laurie, I don’t really have anything else to add here as you seem to have covered it all. With so many of his prior foes all together in one spot, it certainly does not look good in terms of Tom’s Ready’s chances of hitting the board, let alone winning. Pass.

Laoban (Uncle Mo - Chattertown, by Speightstown) is still a maiden. He finished a surprisingly good third in the Sham Stakes, 2 ¾ lengths behind Collected. That one placed fourth recently in the Southwest.  Laoban has twice been beaten by Let’s Meet in Rio.  Laoban’s dam is a stakes placed sprinter. She’s a half to That’s How I Roll, a stakes winning sprinter and to Santa Ysabel Stakes runner-up Bluegrass Chatter.  The second dam Chatter is a multiple stakes winning sprinter and she’s a half to the dam of Grade 1 winning veteran I’m a Chatterbox.  Notice anything in common there?  The word sprinter.  Laoban’s trio of starts were all at a mile. He blew a five length lead in a maiden race before his runner-up finish in the Sham. Changing him to a one run stalker helped last time out, but I don’t think this colt is up to this level of competition. Pass.

Laoban—Another Uncle Mo baby, another runner with distance issues. Granted trainer Eric Guillot seems to have been trying to put some stamina foundation in Laoban with a series of 5 and 6 furlong works, but his nice morning works simply have not translated to a win in the afternoon. The Sham was not that deep of a field, and the rise in class from that spot to this one does nothing but hurt Laoban’s chances. Pass.

Will Be SCRATCHED

Airoforce (Colonel John - Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee) is a neck shy of being undefeated. He’s the obvious class of the race and the deserved favorite, but he has a chink in his pretty gray armor. He hasn’t raced over fast dirt yet, but the colt’s pedigree is filled predominately with dirt attributes. His sire is a Travers winner and dam is a stakes winning sprinter over the dirt.  Damsire Cuvee was a precocious graded stakes sprinter. That’s not the chink. Like Gun Runner, this is Airoforce’s first start off of a layoff. The Mark Casse trainee has flashed some spectacular works at Palm Meadows, but remember, this race isn’t the goal.  Maybe he’s better than the rest and wins anyway.  The last horse to win the Risen Star in his three-year-old debut was Pyro in 2008. He’s certainly a contender.

Airoforce—I swear this colt does a rain dance prior to his races, as 3 of 4 starts have been over either yielding turf or sloppy dirt. Maybe I should revisit Its All Relevant’s chances… Trainer Mark Casse and regular pilot Julien Leparoux win at a 23% clip, and Casse gets 21% winners with runners that won their last start and 15% winners in stakes races. Maybe this is not the goal, but the only runner with a better dirt speed figure in the Risen Star is Bistraya. Contender.

Zapperini (Ghostzapper - Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike) has raced twice and won his maiden last time out.  He has the pedigree to win the Belmont Stakes. There’s little blacktype in the first couple of generations in his female family. Further back we encounter European Champion Sprinter Tamarisk, The wonderful Champion mare Treve, winner of back to back Arc de Triomphes, and Trillion, US Champion grass mare. Zapperini could be a colt to watch later in the year either on dirt or turf. Pass.

Zapperini—Gets a bit of a break due to finding trouble in both starts, but even with that touch of understanding, I still can’t make a case for him. Trainer Gregory Foley is 0-for-3 in stakes races and only gets 7% winners with runners that won their last race. Maybe he can make some noise later on in the year, as you said Laurie, but he certainly won’t be making any racket here. Pass.

Uncle Walter (Uncle Mo - Look for Good, by Unbridled's Song) had the opportunity to win the LeComte, but he tired in the stretch and finished third.  He’s been on the board in all three starts, but he seems to lack that extra punch to get it done.  Being stuck in post 11 after the scratch of Dolphus and Laoban does the colt no favors. He’ll have to go early to get his preferred stalking position and that could mean another wide trip. He’s also shipping back from Gulfstream for the second time. Uncle Walter is a half-brother to two stakes placed sprinters and he races for the same connections that brought us last year’s Risen Star victor, International Star.  Maybe he can fill out the lower exotics with the right trip, but there are others in here that I like more.

Uncle Walter—How many mares did Uncle Mo cover in 2012??? To answer my own question, 211 mares, so it’s no wonder he is represented by 4 runners in this one race. His speed figures have improved with each start, but I have to echo Laurie’s concern about what breaking from gate 11 will do for chances. A better post or a less competitive field would endear Uncle Walter to me a bit more, but for this spot, I’ll pass.

Candy My Boy (Candy Ride (ARG) - Runway Rosie, by Include) has been in the exacta in his last four starts. He wired the field in his last two attempts and beat Forevamo in their last meeting.  Candy My Boy’s dam owns the only blacktype in two distaff family generations. She’s a winner at 1 1/8 miles. The Roger Brueggemann trainee recorded two fast works and should be sharp from the outside post. The negatives are Candy My Boy’s outside post and that speed doesn’t hold in the Risen Star. The last front runners to trot into the winner’s circle were Mucho Macho Man in 2011 and Discreetly Mine in 2010. The step up in class, front running position and far outside post make him a toss for the win, but with the right trip and slow enough early fractions, he could hang around for a piece of the candy.

Candy My Boy—Had a slow start as part of trainer Carlo Vaccarezza’s barn but has quickly improved under the tutelage of current trainer Brueggemann. I like that he owns two wins over the Fair Grounds main track, and his speed figures have risen in each of his last 3 starts. However, having to clear the field in order to establish his new-found favorite spot on the lead is quite concerning. Brueggemann has been getting 36% winners with runners coming in off a 31-60 day layoff, 18% winners with runners that won that last start and has a whopping 36% winners in stakes races. Together with jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, who will be aboard Candy My Boy in the Risen Star, he has entered the winner’s circle 28% of the time. At 15-1, Candy My Boy is worth a look in my book.