Keeneland: Fillies and mares enjoy class drop in Dowager

Point

Counterpoint

1.   Coastana (6-1)

Coastana broke her maiden over the Keeneland course in April of last year. In her eight lifetime starts, she has been off the board only twice, and in both of those races, she was 3 1/2 or fewer lengths behind the winner. She has hit the board in both graded-stakes attempts while facing some pretty tough competition in the form of War Like Goddess and Virginia Joy in one of those races. When facing the aforementioned two, she lost by just 1 1/2 lengths, making her clearly class-tested.

This numbers for this daughter of Kitten’s Joy are quite average. She earned a 79 Brisnet Speed Rating in her debut when finishing sixth, and her highest career rating is a 93, which she’s earned twice. In her most recent start, she showed declining speed ratings. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has a horrible 3 percent record in graded-stakes races, and trainers aren’t exactly knocking down jockey Adam Beschizza’s door for him to ride for them. Additionally, Coastana has never tried 1 1/2 miles before, although she has been very good at 1 3/8 miles.

2.   Luck Money (4-1)

Luck Money has hit the board in all three races she has been in at Keeneland, going 1-1-1. She has been in the trifecta in 15 of 21 career starts. She’s raced exclusively in stakes races, graded or listed, since October 2020 and has faced some top runners. She earned a solid 97 speed rating last out, one of the better numbers in the field.

You have to go all the way back to Halloween of 2020 to find Luck Money’s last victory. The 5-year old mare is very inconsistent. She either finishes close to the winner or loses by open lengths, like she has done in three of her last four starts. In those last four starts, Temple City Terror, Sister Otoole and Stand Tall finished ahead of her. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is winning graded-stakes races at just a 10 percent clip, and jockey Vincent Cheminaud is no Joel Rosario, who rode the mare to a close second in the Dowager (G3) last October. As for the 1 1/2-mile distance, Luck Money is 6: 1-2-0.

3.   Core Values (15-1)

There honestly is not a lot of upside in Core Values. The best I can do is give the filly credit for running a huge race in the Bewitch (G3) back in April. She finished third, beaten by just 2 3/4 lengths by War Like Goddess over this very track and at this same distance. Incidentally, that was her first and only attempt at 1 1/2 miles. If that Core Values shows up, she could pick up a minor check.

Like Luck Money, it’s been a while since Core Values has had her picture taken. Her last win came in August 2021. In 2022 she has gone 5: 0-0-1. In three starts at Keeneland she has hit the board once. Trainer Victoria Oliver is batting zero in graded stakes, and Core Values’s speed ratings are middling at best.

4.   Flying Fortress (10-1)

Lightly raced Flying Fortress has compiled a record of 5: 3-1-0 while having a couple significant layoffs. Shug McGaughey doesn’t place his trainees all willy-nilly, so he must see something he likes in this Uncle Mo filly. Julien Leparoux hops aboard for the first time.

This will be Flying Fortress’s graded-stakes debut. It will also be the first time she has raced past 1 1/8 miles, although it’s worth noting that McGaughey has steadily been increasing the distances. While her speed ratings have continued to go up, they’re still not fast, with the 89 she earned last out a career best. Additionally, this will be Flying Fortress’s first race at a top tier track.

5.   Temple City Terror (3-1)

Temple City Terror relishes the 1 1/2-mile distance, never having been off the board in four starts. She’s class tested, particularly lately while facing War Like Goddess. She is a bit iffy at Keeneland, however. At this track she has put together a 4: 0-1-1 record. She does have a top-notch jockey in Tyler Gaffalione, who rode her two starts back to a runner-up finish to War Like Goddess in the Glen Falls (G2). She consistently runs average speed ratings and earned a 93 last out in the Flower Bowl (G2) while finishing fourth.

2022 hasn’t exactly been a stellar year for the 6-year-old mare. In five starts she has gone 1-1-0 and was absolutely whipped in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3), although, in fairness, that was a soft course. Put a line through that race, and she hasn’t been losing by much, 1 1/2 lengths being the largest margin of loss. In prior races she finished behind Coastana last out, Sister Otoole three starts back and Stand Tall.

6.   Sister Otoole (8-1)

Sister Otoole enters off a win in the 1 3/8-mile CTT & TOC Stakes at Del Mar, where she earned a 92 speed rating. Four starts back she earned a 101 when finishing fourth, beaten by two lengths in the Orchid (G3).

This daughter of Amira’s Prince finished off the board in her only prior start at Keeneland. Likewise, she finished off the board in her two prior attempts at 1 1/2 miles, although she did earn that triple-digit rating in one of those starts. However, she only received an 88 in the other race. Three starts back she finished behind Luck Money, who was second, and was a whopping 40 lengths behind the winner while finishing fourth and last.

7.   Beside Herself (9-2)

Beside Herself enters off a fourth-place finish in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational (G3). She led the vanguard through most of the race but could not hold onto the lead in the stretch, finishing fourth, beaten by just three lengths. Two starts back she earned a 102 speed rating, the best in the field, while winning a 1 1/2-mile optional claimer, which was her first attempt at the distance. Queen Bourbon also was in that race and finished third. She also won her only prior start at Keeneland. There’s not a whole lot of speed in this race, so with Flavien Prat aboard, she could wire this field.

The Uncle Mo filly has three attempts in graded company but only managed to hit the board in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3). While she does own the highest speed rating in the field, it comes as an anomaly. All her other numbers have been between 77 and 89.

8.   Stand Tall (12-1)

This Uncle Mo filly is another who does not have a lot of upside on paper. She did earn a 92 speed rating last out in the Ladies Marathon (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Trainer George Arnold II does win at a 20 percent clip with runners second off a layoff, so maybe the screws are a little tighter for this race. Additionally, she does seem to like Keeneland, where she is 2-for-2, and the distance, going 2: 1-1-0.

Now for the downside. In her last three starts she finished behind Temple City Terror, Sister Otoole and Luck Money. She did run a close second to Temple City Terror in the Keertana, but she turned around and ran horribly in the Robert G. Dick Memorial. She finished way up the track, beaten by 45 lengths on the soft course. In 2022 she’s hit the board just once in four starts.

9.   Queen Bourbon (15-1)

Queen Bourbon ran her two best races in her last two starts, earning a 98 while finishing third behind Beside Herself and a 90 while finishing fifth behind Mia Martina. Both of those rivals won their respective races. She was the favorite last out, and trainer Ian Wilkes strikes at a 22 percent rate with beaten favorites.

While her last two starts were her best, numbers-wise, they don’t exactly bode well for the Empire Maker filly. Both were at 1 1/2 miles, making her 2: 0-0-1 for that angle. Additionally, her last start was over this very course, a course on which she is 0-for-2 without even hitting the board.

10. Go Big Blue Nation (20-1)

Go Big Blue Nation has the highest last-race speed rating, a 100 in an off-the-turf optional claimer in which she finished a close second. Trainer Graham Motion and jockey John Velázquez have been red hot together recently, winning at a 27 percent clip.

That nice triple-digit speed rating came on the dirt, making it nearly irrelevant to this race. Go Big Blue Nation finished off the board in her only prior start at Keeneland and has finished out of the money in all four prior attempts at 1 1/2 miles. In 2022 she’s 5: 0-1-0 and has finished behind Temple City Terror, Stand Tall and Flying Fortress.

11. Mia Martina (15-1)

Mia Martina enters this race off a three-quarter-length win over this course and at the 1 1/2-mile distance. Her last two races have resulted in speed ratings in the 90s, numbers she will need to run here. Trainer Graham Motion has been on fire, winning at a 30 percent clip.

Two starts back Mia Martina finished sixth behind winner Beside Herself and third-place finisher Queen Bourbon. Incidentally, that race also was contested at 1 1/2 miles. This filly is stepping up in class. She hasn’t raced in graded company since being eased in last year’s Gazelle (G3).