Count Fleet First Distance Test for Some
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The Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct marks the 3-year old debut of a field of seven. After a break of about a month or two, these seven colts have returned to the track and are ready to begin their march to Churchill Downs. The first Saturday in May is still four months away, but it is never too soon to start prepping and trying to accumulate enough earnings to get into the gate for the Kentucky Derby. A couple of entrants have already stamped themselves as serious contenders while others are looking to make their presence felt. Saturday’s field with the morning line odds is:
Il Villano (Pollard’s Vision—Do the Wekiva, by Wekiva Springs) is a winner of three races in four starts and has not finished worse than second in his career. He has two ungraded stakes wins to his credit but has not been asked to go longer than 6 furlongs. The Count Fleet will be distance test for the speedy colt who took all of his wins in wire-to-wire fashion.
How Do I Win (Corinthian—Silver Crown, by Distorted Humor) has two wins in five starts and has not been asked to go longer than 7 furlongs. Like Il Villano, How Do I Win scored both of his wins in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has not won when not on the lead. He has shown a tendency to be a bit unruly during races, particularly in a maiden race at Saratoga back in August. In that race, the Corinthian colt played bumper cars with Right to Vote down the stretch before eventually finishing fourth as the favorite.
Whistleblower (Grand Slam—She’s a Tattletale, by Tale of the Cat) is the long shot in the race. A maiden winner of one race in three starts, Whistleblower likes to stalk the pace. Like the two aforementioned colts, the son of Grand Slam will be getting his first test at a distance longer than a typical sprint.
Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy—Oatsee, by Unbridled) has already been the subject of much speculation simply for being a half-brother to 2011 Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford. The A.P. Indy colt is 1-1-0 in 3 starts and has already been asked to route. Being fanned 5 wide in the upper stretch probably had a hand in hindering him from getting the mile and a eighth distance, but he has been successful at a mile. He is a stalker/closer type, so look for him to run his race in the stretch drive.
Alpha (Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) created some buzz in September, breaking his maiden with a six length win. He then went on to finish second to early Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags in the G1 Champagne before acting up and nearly completely checking out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Installed as the morning line favorite, Alpha will be looking for redemption following his disappointing showing in the Juvenile. Bred to go the distance, his pedigree reads like a Who’s Who of American thoroughbred racing. Among his ancestors are Seattle Slew, Alydar, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid.
Speightscity (Speightstown—My American Girl, by Quiet American) recently returned to the winner’s circle after falling flat in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Remsen Stakes. The son of Speightstown likes to run near the lead and is already a proven router.
Shkspeare Shaliyah (Shakespeare—Tricky Mistress, by Clever Trick) has been installed as the highweight for the race, but the Count Fleet is an interesting choice for the Shakespeare colt. Saturday will mark his first start on the dirt, having raced on turf in his four previous starts. Both his sire and his sire’s sire were turf runners, but his dam was unsuccessful on both dirt and turf. It looks as though he will prefer the turf, so his odds are not far off the mark despite his high weight status. He captured the G3 Pilgrim Stakes back in October, making him the only graded stakes winner in the race. A true closer, Shkspeare Shaliyah will be the early trailer of the race.
Last year, Twinspired, twentieth on the list of graded stakes earnings, had a whopping $197,500. Even with that much in graded earnings, Twinspired only made the cut due to the defections of J P's Gusto, Gourmet Dinner, Turbulent Dancer, and Rogue Romance, among others. Of the Count Fleet field, Il Villano is the only contender to have already cracked six figures. Alpha and Shkspeare Shaliyah are not far behind with earnings in the ninety-thousands. With the Count Fleet worth $150,000, the winner's share of the purse, while not tremendous when compared to that of races like the Florida Derby, will be a good start for those looking to get into the Kentucky Derby. It is a bit early to start discussing the necessary graded earnings to get into this year's Derby, but, if trends continue, it will be better to start trying to make the cut sooner rather than later since the earnings of the "bubble" positions have been so high in recent years.
Il Villano will enter the gate on Saturday off a three race winning streak, but he will have his work cut out for him. He will have competition on the lead, and, having not been asked to route before, closers will be a serious threat to him. With a 7.8 dosage index, on paper it looks like he will not be suited to distance races, but it will ultimately be up to him to tell us what he is capable of. Alpha is the clear choice, but I am taking a long look at Speightscity and Stephanoatsee. Both have already proven successful at a distance, while Alpha finished 5 ¼ lengths behind Union Rags at a mile and a distant 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. With a little more age on him, it may be that Alpha returns to the track as a slightly more mature colt. Win or lose, though, the Count Fleet will give a better indication of whether or not Alpha truly is serious Kentucky Derby material.
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