Why your Breeders' Cup Classic pick can win -- and why he won't

The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic has become all sorts of wonky. The early favorite, Arrogate, is in questionable form or, depending on who you ask, he simply just does not like the Del Mar track. The new favorite, Gun Runner, is suspect at 1 1/4 miles, leaving many looking at a pair of Baffert horses, who while good have been far from the stable stars.

Why he will win: The Arrogate that we saw last year all through this year’s Dubai World Cup is quite simply a freak of nature. By all rights, he should have lost at Meydan after completely blowing the start, but instead, he put in a Zenyatta-type performance for the ages. That version of Arrogate is unbeatable.

Why he won’t win: Arrogate has just not been the same since returning to the States. Some claim fatigue on his part. For what it’s worth, trainer Bob Baffert continues to say that Arrogate is training just as strong as ever. As for me, I think he hates the Del Mar track. He’s been training phenomenally at Santa Anita, but his two races at Del Mar over the summer left a lot to be desired.

War Decree

Why he will win: Record-setting Aidan O’Brien will saddle War Decree, and there is no one who has annexed more Group/Grade 1 wins in one year than O’Brien. Obviously O'Brien thinks he belongs here, and who am I to question one of the best?

Why he won’t win: Easy. He is a turf-to-dirt transfer and has never raced on the type of main track at Del Mar. This very rarely works out for the Europeans and hasn't yet for O'Brien in the Classic. He most recently saddled Gleneagles, the 2015 renewal's last-place finisher.

Win the Space

Why he will win: If the Grade 1 Awesome Again was any indicator, then Win the Space appears to be rounding back into good form. He was beaten by two very nice runners in Mubtaahij and Midnight Storm and rallied to only be beaten by 3 ½-lengths.

Why he won’t win: The 5-year old has not won a race since May 15, 2016, and that was an optional claimer. He’s been eased and/or pulled up in two Grade 1 events in the interim. He’s a decent runner, but decent just is not enough here -- not to mention he has just one on the board finish at both Del Mar and while traveling 10 furlongs.

War Story

Why he will win: On paper, it is incredibly hard to make a case for War Story. He has long been a runner that I felt could have been great if he had been properly placed in lesser races. With that being said, his run style could be an asset here. With the amount of speed in the race, War Story could very well pull a Keen Ice and come with a late run to slay some giants.

Why he won’t win: Placement, placement, placement. Quite simply, War Story does not belong in this field. It will take a pace meltdown for him to have even a remote shot, and I would not hold my breath for that scenario to happen. Additionally, his previous race at Del Mar resulted in an off-the-board finish as did his previous three attempts at going 10 panels.

Gun Runner

Why he will win: The son of Candy Ride had the Dubai World Cup won until the freaky Arrogate caught him near the wire, stealing what would have been Gun Runner’s biggest career win. Unlike Arrogate, however, Gun Runner has done nothing wrong since returning from Dubai. He’s reeled off three straight wins at two different tracks and has looked great training at Del Mar. This is a bigger, stronger version of Gun Runner, and he’s ready to prove once and for all just how good he’s gotten.

Why he won’t win: The only knock against Gun Runner is his record in 1 1/4-mile races. At that distance, he’s 0-1-2. The son of Candy Ride is obviously not terrible at the distance, but his record does beg the question as to whether or not he truly wants to go 10 panels. Last year Gun Runner raced in the Dirt Mile, meant to be a building block to the Classic's distance in the Breeders' Cup.

Mubtaahij (IRE)

Why he will win: With Drayden Van Dyke aboard, Mubtaahij finally got his big breakthrough win in a Grade 1 race. The difference? A quicker pace up front and Van Dyke did not try to make the horse come from last to first. With Van Dyke retaining the mount for the Classic, Mubtaahij could be a steal at 12-1 on the morning line.?

Why he won’t win: He has faced the best the U.S. has to offer and has yet to beat any of them. He beat some nice horses in the Awesome Again, but they definitely were not the best we have to offer. Plus, he’s 0-for-7 going the classic distance.

Churchill (IRE)

Why he will win: Another O’Brien entrant, another shot at extending his record breaking year. The good news for Churchill is that he does seem to appreciate a firmer turf course at times. The colt is clearly talented, but the fact remains that he’s a turf runner. However, like with stablemate War Decree, O’Brien obviously sees something here that could translate to success on dirt.

Why he won’t win: It may seem redundant, but my reasons for disliking Churchill tie right in with the reasons why I don’t like War Decree. I don’t think the turf to dirt angle is going to work here, and Churchill was well beaten in his only attempt at 10 panels.

West Coast

Why he will win: In eight career starts, West Coast has never been worse than 2nd. As a result, he’s the 3-year-old threat to continue Baffert's streak of Classic winners at that age (Bayern, American Pharoah, Arrogate). He is proven at 10 panels, beating each of this year’s Triple Crown race winners in the process.

Why he won’t win: He has speed, but he’s never been pressured into a situation where he has had to utilize that pace under pressure. He came from behind in his earlier races, but he’s been on or vying for the lead in his most recent efforts. In the Classic, he will not get away with an easy lead, and there’s no telling how he will handle the pressure on the front end. Perhaps he will continue on, but I think he will fold will all the other older talent gunning for him.

Gunnevera

Why he will win: In his only two starts going the Breeders’ Cup Classic distance, Gunnevera has run into trouble. In the Kentucky Derby he was jammed up, brushed, and floated wide, ultimately finishing 7th in the largest field he’s ever faced. In the Travers, while West Coast enjoyed an easy break and un-pressured lead, Gunnevera was bumped hard at the start and then pushed wide throughout the race. A clean break and better positioning puts Gunnevera in a much better situation to show what he can do.

Why he won’t win: While a good colt, Gunnevera is very far from the best his crop had to offer. He’s proven adept against lesser competition, but he is in over his head here.

Pavel

Why he will win: Lightly raced, Pavel has the freshness advantage on many of his rivals. Not to mention, as with Eric Guillot, Doug O’Neill has a tendency to pull some surprises with horses that handicappers think no chance. Just think back to Irap. No one initially believed in him, but he certainly turned the tide. Pavel also held his own against Diversify and Keen Ice in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, checking in only 1 3/4 lengths behind winner Diversify while running third.

Why he won’t win: Not every colt can be Arrogate and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic so early in his career. Though he ran well in the JCGC, I think the inexperience will ultimately work against him.

Collected

Why he will win: This one is nice and simple. Collected is proven both at 10 furlongs and at Del Mar having won the Pacific Classic. He has already beaten Arrogate and earned a career high 126 Equibase figure in the process.

Why he won’t win: While undefeated this year, his 2017 résumé begs the question as to who he has beaten. An off-form Arrogate? Who else? No one truly of note, that’s who. And with the other speedsters in the race, he also cannot count on an uncontested lead.