Breeders' Cup Classic 2016: Can anyone beat California Chrome?

Without a doubt, California Chrome is the horse to beat in the 2016 edition of the $6 million, 1 ¼-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has thus far proved unbeatable this year and is the deserving favorite to follow up American Pharoah’s popular victory last year with what will be a crowd-pleasing win of his own should he continue to run to form. All that is a given, but what about the field? Who could possibly beat California Chrome should something go awry, whether it is bad racing luck or someone else running the race of their life? In playing the devil’s advocate here as I take a final look at the Classic field.

Top Selections that could upset California Chrome

Arrogate—This year’s hype horse, Arrogate has done nothing but win since dropping his debut by a mere ¾-length. He absolutely demolished the Travers field in his last start, but he’s had 10 weeks off since then. If his Travers score was a fluke, being off for so long coming into the Classic certainly does him no favors. However, that break does ensure that he continues to be fresh coming into what is arguably the toughest test of his short career.

Effinex—New York’s pride and joy finished second to America’s first Grand Slam winner, American Pharoah, last year in the Classic. He hasn’t had quite as good a year as last year, but he’s still brought it every time he’s raced in 2016. He’s only been out of the trifecta at 10 furlongs once in his career, making him a serious threat to go the distance.

Melatonin—A “sleeper” pick, Melatonin fell just a length short of being perfect in 2016. He’s unbeaten going 1 ¼-mile, and he’s perfect at Santa Anita. A horse-for-course and a distance specialist, Melatonin has the speed to potentially keep up with California Chrome, but the question is, does he have the stamina to run with the best when the best throws down on the track?

Could pick up some pieces if luck plays their way

Frosted—Until he proves me wrong, I’m just not convinced that Frosted is a true 10 furlong colt. Yes, he set a track record at 1 3/16-mile in Dubai, but those were definitely not the best dirt horses in the world. He has yet to win at 10 furlongs, and he will be hard pressed to change that trend on Saturday. He’s a nice colt that I would love to own, but he’s better suited to shorter distances when facing the likes of America’s most popular horse.

Hoppertunity—I have said it before, but it’s worth saying again, Hoppertunity has made a career out of chasing California Chrome around the track. He has yet to beat his peer, but he has had a rather good career nonetheless. Owners Pegram, Watson, and Weitman can count on their 5-year-old millionaire to bring home a check as the son of Any Given Saturday has never finished worse than fourth in graded stakes company. Regardless of how the race plays out, Hoppertunity is nearly a lock to run in the superfecta, but his running style tends to leave him with a lot to do in the stretch. He’ll need the pace to fall apart to run down Chrome.

Shaman Ghost—Owned by Stronach Stables, last year’s Queen’s Plate winner won a close finish in the Woodward in his last outing. I’m not sure how he will fair in the California heat, but the Classic distance is right up his alley. If Chrome doesn’t run his race, Shaman Ghost’s tactic speed could help him pull another mild upset.

Longshots for a reason

Keen Ice—Now with trainer Todd Pletcher, Keen Ice has exactly two wins from 17 starts to his name. One of those was against American Pharoah in last year’s Travers after Frosted softened up the Triple Crown winner. Since then, he’s only finished in the trifecta once, and that was in his last outing. Maybe he’s improving under Pletcher’s tutelage, but I cannot think of a scenario in which he beats the aforementioned seven for the win money.

War Story—By Northern Afleet, War Story ran some bang up races in the early part of 2015, but since then, he’s proven no match for the best of his peer group. He’s never come close to winning at 1 ¼-mile and has been well beaten by weaker than he will face here.

Win the Space—A 4-year old son of Pulpit, Win the Space stands a better chance of running well than the other two longshots. He’s run third to California Chrome twice and second to Melatonin once. He hasn’t successfully faced a field this strong, but if any of the longshots can pull out an upset, it’s Win the Space.