Breeders' Cup Classic 2016: An Early Look at the Field

This year, the Breeders’ Cup returns to sunny California and Santa Anita Park. Competitors in the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be running for the winner’s share of the $6 million purse, a $1 million increase from last year, but in order to take home the lion’s share of the money, entrants will first have to get past California Chrome, the top dirt handicap horse in the United States.

As a 2-year old, California Chrome was good. As a 3-year old, he was great. The chestnut looked poised to have a fantastic 4-year old season last year, but was derailed due to injury, leaving fans to wonder what he might have accomplished in 2015. Now 5 years old, California Chrome is nothing short of brilliant. Five-for-five for the year, the son of Lucky Pulpit has notched victories in the G2 San Pasqual, a handicap at Meydan, the Group 1, $10 million Dubai World Cup, the G2 San Diego Handicap, and the “Win and You’re In” Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Racing and training better than ever, California Chrome is strictly the one to beat in the World Championships’ premier race.

Another to blossom as an older runner, Bradester gained an automatic berth into the Classic by virtue of his first career grade 1 win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. Utilizing his early speed, the 6-year old son of Lion Heart led the field on a merry chase before digging in and gamely holding off Eagle in the stretch. This year, Bradester also won the Majestic Light Stakes and the G2 Monmouth Cup but finished a disappointing eighth in the Grade 1 Woodward after being forced to steady and having Joe Bravo lose the stick in the stretch.

In the year of the older runner, Melatonin is yet another to blossom as an older runner.  After taking 5 races to break his maiden as a 2- and 3-year old, the Kodiak Cowboy gelding came of age in 2016. A winner of 3-of-4 this year, Melatonin notched victories in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap and the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita, a “Win and You’re In” event. He also ran a solid second in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. The downside to his pair of grade 1 wins is that Melatonin has yet to face any competition near the likes of what he’ll face in the Classic.

A mud specialist, Exaggerator splashed his way into the gate of the Classic via a victory in a muddy edition of the G1 Haskell Invitational for 3-year olds. His two other big wins this year, the G1 Santa Anita Derby and the G1 Preakness, also came on sloppy tracks. The Curlin colt has yet to win on a fast track this year, so his connections will likely be doing a rain dance come November 5.

Frosted was unlucky enough to come along in the era of Amerian Pharoah and California Chrome. He’s had the potential to be a great runner, but like so many before him, he was born in the wrong year. In Frosted’s case, he had to contend with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah last year and North America’s richest horse California Chrome this year. However, when the cats are away, Frosted plays, as he showed in the Grade 1 Met Mile and the G1 Whitney, challenge races for the Dirt Mile and the Classic respectively. At the moment, it’s unclear which event Frosted will point towards, but he could be a pace presence in the Classic.

Others possible for the Breeders’ Cup Classic are G1 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, G3 Iowa Derby winner American Freedom, G1 Travers winner Arrogate, and multiple grade 1 winner Beholder. However, since Beholder could not successfully defend her Pacific Classic title against California Chrome this year, it is more likely that the champion mare will head to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff rather than the Classic. Other probabales include last year’s Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund, New York-bred multiple graded stakes winner Effinex, Dubai World Cup third place finisher Hoppertunity, Dubai World Cup runner up Mubtaahij, and G1 Woodward Stakes winner Shaman Ghost.

There are still two more “Win and You’re In” races to go before we get to the ultimate year end goal. The Awesome Again Stakes is scheduled for October 1, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup is slated for October 8. California Chrome and Dortmund are likely to meet up again in the former, while Effinex, Mubtaahij, and Shaman Ghost will likely hook up in the latter.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic field is limited to 14 starters, but this year’s edition looks to be loaded if all the top players show up. California Chrome certainly holds the home track advantage, but this will be no walk in the park for the former Triple Crown hopeful.