Breeders' Cup Classic 2015: Final Thoughts

It’s Breeders’ Cup Friday, and we have four championship races in the books. As we look forward to tomorrow’s card, many betting selections have been made. It’s been a marathon handicapping session all week, and while most are probably set on their selections, there are likely still a few on the fence about who they like and why. The forecast calls for cloudy skies and mildly brisk temperatures in Lexington for Halloween. It will be windy with a slight chance of rain throughout the afternoon. All in all, it looks like a fast track for the dirt races, giving everybody a fair shot, track conditions wise, at the win in the 2015 edition of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic. As we head into tomorrow, here are a few final thoughts on this year’s Classic field. 

Tonalist—With Beholder out, I now expect Tonalist to flash some of the speed he showed in the Peter Pan and the Travers as a three-year old. I still do not believe he can outkick Frosted or American Pharoah in the early stages, thus making it likely he could get caught in traffic. Additionally, Smooth Roller will likely provide some more company up front, so maybe expect to see Tonalist sit about 4^th if he can work out a good trip. His works have been solid, but let’s face it, Tonalist still has not won a major race away from Belmont.

Keen Ice—I’ve seen many a case made for this Donegal Racing owned son of Curlin. As for me, no matter which way the cookie crumbles, I just cannot make a winning case for Keen Ice. As ultra-consistent as he has been, I can see him in the money, but a repeat of the Travers just does not seem likely. I will say that his work non the 24^th at Churchill did look superb. The gallop out was quite strong, and Tammy Fox really had to stomp the breaks. If not for that and the outrider, he likely would just have continued on his merry way.

Frosted—Let’s face it, Frosted has done nothing but chase American Pharoah’s backside all year long, getting wins when the Triple Crown winner was not around. Even when he went on a suicide mission in the Travers, he still could not manage to out-finish the year’s top 3-year old. I don’t expect that trend to end here, especially with American Pharoah breaking to his outside rather than the other way around.

American Pharoah—The Triple Crown champ has absolutely tore up the track out at Santa Anita. In his last two published works, American Pharoah blazed 4 furlongs in :46 3/5 and blitzed 6 furlongs in 1:10 4/5. In his final work, the colt, under Martin Garcia, posted the work in a faster time than trainer Bob Baffert had wanted but did it so easily that the trainer was pleased nonetheless.

Gleneagles—European invader Gleneagles made a favorable first impression when hitting the dirt at Keeneland for the first time Thursday. Traveling in the slop, DRF’s Marcus Hersch described the colt as being on his toes. He went out again this morning and again looked good to Hersch, who said via Twitter, “No kidney sweat today for Gleneagles though he is very much on his toes.” Two years ago Declaration of War surprised most when he finished a very close third to Mucho Macho Man in the 2013 Classic, so a similar performance from Gleneagles is not out of the question. However, I, for one, am not convinced, especially since this will also be his first time racing beyond a mile.

Effinex—Of my tosses, Effinex is actually the one I like best. I still don’t think he has the class to win, but he does own victories at 10 furlongs, certainly giving him an edge over Gleneagles at the very least. His last two outings were less than impressive, but he was his own worst enemy in the Woodward. He expended valuable energy acting up in the gate, leading to him weakening and finishing 4^th. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was bumped at the start, but even without that incident, no one was beating Tonalist that day.

Smooth Roller—Reports out of Keeneland indicate that Smooth Roller has not been galloping but rather simply jogging during his recent morning outings; however, private clocker Toby Turrell of The Yellow Sheet had described the colt as being dead fit and thriving during a work two-weeks ago. Trainer Victor Garcia has intimated that his trainee will show speed to try to get the early lead against American Pharoah. We saw how that worked with Frosted in the Travers, but maybe Garcia is hoping that Espinoza will concede the lead to Smooth Roller rather than engaging in a dog fight for the entire 1 ¼-mile. With so little early speed, it’s as good a strategy as any and he could be the wise guy bet, but I’m afraid that Smooth Roller will be in for a rude awakening as the Awesome Again field he faced had nothing on what he will see here.

Hard Aces—Typically an uninspiring morning worker, Hard Aces’ first two works after his 6^th place finish in the Awesome Again looked pretty darn good. On October 10, he worked a bullet 4 furlongs in :47 flat at Santa Anita. A week later, he put in a solid 5 furlongs in 1:00 2/5. One who has to be constantly asked by his rider, it’s trainer John Sadler’s opinion that California’s new whip rule has really hindered the son of Hard Spun’s performances in his last two outings. His Gold Cup win came 5 days before the Golden State put into effect a rule that only allows for three strikes of the whip before the rider must pause and wait for a response. Kentucky does not have that rule, something that could help Hard Aces out in the Classic. With this in mind, I’m beginning to rethink my position on the Gold Cup winner. Maybe he has a better shot than I originally gave him.

Honor Code—I was pretty high on his chances a couple months ago, but the defections of Liam’s Map and Beholder have made his Classic task a whole lot harder. With no one likely to challenge American Pharoah early for the lead, it looks as though there will not be much pace for the Met Mile winner to run at.

Beholder—SCRATCHED—For the second year running, Beholder will miss the World Championships due to an illness. Last year she spiked a fever in the days leading up to the Distaff. This year, a scoping after a routine gallop revealed a lung irritation and that the champion race mare had bled during her work. Though she will miss what would have been the richest race of her career, fans can still expect to see her back next year.

Breeders’ Cup Friday has come and gone, and if we took nothing else away from today’s card, it’s that speed is holding over Keeneland’s main track. In the first two races, both at 6 furlongs on the dirt, the winners, Pablo Del Monte and Chanteline respectively, clocked final times that were one one-hundredth and forty-nine one-hundredths off the track record of 1:09 flat. Race Day set a new course record in the G2 Hagyard Fayette of 1:47.90 for 1 1/8 mile. Then Liam’s Map, one of the Classic defectors, blizted the Grade 1 Dirt Mile field while also lowering the course record, this time clocking 1 mile in 1:34.54. For all the dirt races save the Marathon, all the winners were either on the lead or within 2 lengths of the pace-setter at the ½ mile call.

This makes things look really good for American Pharoah for tomorrow’s Classic. With the way the field has turned out, we can safely assume he will be the leader, and if not, he will be right on the heels of the pace-setter. In a nutshell, expect to see your 12^th Triple Crown champion go out a winner.