Breeders' Cup 2023: Juvenile Fillies keys and trends
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is a lucrative play for exotics. In the last 23 years, the favorite has won 11 times. In the last decade, the favorite won only twice but placed second through fourth five times.
Breeders' Cup champions and the Kentucky Oaks
The winner of the Juvenile Fillies is guaranteed to win year-end honors, but since 2000, only five have contested the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Beholder (2012) finished second, and 2021 champ Echo Zulu was fourth last year. Only two fillies, Open Mind (1988) and Silverbulletday (1998), have completed the Breeders' Cup-Kentucky Oaks double.
Notes about Santa Anita
This will be the 11th time Santa Anita has hosted the Breeders’ Cup. Its dirt course has undergone a multitude of changes over the years, beginning with the great synthetic experiment. After the synthetic surface was replaced with traditional dirt, there were then efforts to restore it to how it had been.
There also was a huge resurfacing undertaken in 2019 when record rains led to a rash of injuries that closed the track for several weeks. When the track reopened, the main track was noticeably slower and deeper.
Santa Anita’s main track is a one-mile dirt oval with one of the shortest stretches in racing at only 990 feet. Horses who are familiar with Santa Anita’s configuration generally carry an advantage over those shipping into the Southern California track for the first time. Because of the short stretch and the slowing final furlong, deep closers are typically at a big disadvantage.
How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. But thanks to the beautiful Southern California weather, the track is almost always labeled fast and playing to speed.
Santa Anita 2019 Recap
Winner British Idiom sat in mid-pack, 5 1/2 lengths off the pacesetter. She moved within striking distance into the second turn and shifted out around the quarter pole to launch her attack on Donna Veloce. Those two battled to the wire from inside the furlong marker, with British Idiom prevailing by a hard-fought neck.
Donna Veloce bumped British Idiom on the first turn and bulled her way through to track the pacesetters from the inside. She launched a four-wide rally on the second turn and put away the leaders but could not hold off British Idiom, settling for second.
Bast contested the pace from the break but could not hold off the first- and second-place finishers. She did, however, finish a clear third and had the best placing of the three fillies who battled for the early lead. Early leader Two Sixty finished ninth and last, and Wicked Whisper finished fifth
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at a glance
1 1/16 miles
Division debut: 1984
All stats are for the last 23 years (2000 – 2022)
2022 Breeders' Cup challenge winners
Frizette Stakes (G1) — Just F Y I
Chandelier (G2) — Chatalas
Alcibiades (G1) — Candied
Breeders' Cup challenge event previous results
Prep races:
16 Juvenile Fillies winners won their final prep.
2 winners finished worse than fourth in their final prep.
8 Frizette Stakes (G1)
5 Chandelier Stakes (G2) (previously the Oak Leaf)
4 Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
1 My Dear Girl (R)
1 Summer Stakes (G2)
1 Matron (G1)
1 Del Mar Debutante (G1)
1 Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3)
1 prepped an allowance race
Winner British Idiom won the Alcibiades Stakes (G1).
Second-place finisher Donna Veloce was a debut maiden winner at Santa Anita.
Third-place finisher Bast won the Chandelier Stakes (G1).
Payouts
Average win payout: $24.50
Lowest: $3.20 Songbird (2015)
Highest: $125.40 Take Charge Brandi (2014)
Favorites
The second betting choice won and the favorite ran second.
Rail
The rail is the kiss of death. Only three have won in the last 22 years, and Beholder (2012) was the last. But seven total have won since the race's inception.
Santa Anita 2019
The winner broke from post 4, second place from the rail, and third place from post 6.
Winning style, determined by position at the half-mile
Pacesetters accounted for four runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes.
Pressers finished second 13 times and third seven times.
Closers were second six times, and a whopping 13 finished third.
The winner closed from the back of the field, the runner-up sat mid-pack, and the third-place finisher pressed the pace.
Previous starts
8 had 3 previous starts.
9 had 4 previous starts.
2 had 5 previous starts.
1 had 6 previous starts.
Trainers
1984 to 2022
The more-is-better club
D. Wayne Lukas is noted for training champion fillies. Since the inceptio of the Juvenile Fillies, he has had 44 starters with a 6-4-3 record, the most of any trainer. His latest victory was with huge long shot, Take Charge Brandi in 2014.
Bob Baffert has 25 starters with a 2-5-4 record.
Steve Asmussen has two wins from seven starters.
Shug McGaughey won twice from nine starters.
Brad Cox won and placed with two of three starters. Last year he saddled favored Chop Chop, who finished last.
Wayne Catalano won with two of three starters.
Richard Mandella won with three of five starters.
Eoin Harty won and placed with two of three starters.
Ken McPeek is 0-for-16. Three contenders each have filled out second and third place. He will send out Pocahontas (G3) winner and Alcibiades (G1) runner-up V V’s Dream this year.
Todd Pletcher has saddled 16 starters. None have won, but four were second and two were third. This year he will take three shots with Alcibiades winner Candied, Frizette (G1) third-place finisher Life Talk and Chandelier (G2) runner-up Scalable.
John Velazquez has a 2-3-5 record from 19 starters, the most starters of any jockey in Juvenile Fillies history.
Mike Smith has had a dozen mounts, and Joel Rosario has ridden 13, and the duo are tied for the most wins in history with three.
Smith's record is 12: 3-2-4, and Rosario 13: 3-0-1.
Handicappers are savvy people. Favorites hit the board 65 percent of the time, while the second favorites hit the board at a 35 percent clip, and the third favorites are in the money 13 percent of the time.
Pacesetters and pressers prevail 70 perceent of the time.
Ten of the last 23 winners entered the Juvenile Fillies with a perfect record, and the majority had three or four starts. Fifty-seven percent of the Juvenile Fillies winners prepped in either the Frizette or Chandelier Stakes, formerly the Oak Leaf Stakes.
Individual analysis will be available in Head-to-Head format after final entries are published.