2016 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby pits Mohaymen against Nyquist
Gulfstream Park's $1 million Grade 1 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby is the culmination of the Derby preps run at the South Florida track. While in the past the 1 1/8 mile event has drawn competitive fields with the possibility that any number of entrants could win, this year's renewal has turned into a showdown with a good bit of filler to prevent it from technically being a match race. It is hard to say whether the lack of competition for the top two detracts from the appeal in any way, but nevertheless, anticipation is running high as we approach the imminent showdown.
Undefeated juvenile champion Nyquist ships in from the West Coast to take on Mohaymen, the undefeated gray Beast of the East. The two colts have a combined record of 11-for-11. Whichever colt comes out on top is sure to head to Churchill Downs as the deserving Kentucky Derby favorite and will do so at least $600,000 richer. Normally, racing fans would have to wait until the first Saturday in May to see a match-up like this. However, Nyquist’s connections were lured east by the scent of a $1 million incentive bonus offered by Fasig-Tipton to this year’s Florida Derby victor on top of the $1 million Florida Derby purse money. Horses that were offered at the auction house’s 2015 March selected 2-year-olds in training sale at Gulfstream are eligible.
Despite the generous $1 million bonus being offered to any Fasig-Tipton March graduate, Nyquist is the only entry to take advantage of the perk. Should the son of Uncle Mo be victorious in the 1 1/8 mile contest, Reddam Racing LLC will collect not only the winner’s share of the Grade 1 race, they will take home an extra $1 million bonus and an additional 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, along with a nice trophy and pretty blanket of flowers.
With one of the two undefeated colts being the most likely winner of the 65th running of Florida's last Derby prep, Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and I have elected to forego our usual head-to-head style covering each starter and instead focus on the West Coast versus East Coast showdown. While Laurie makes the case for why champion Nyquist will keep his record intact, I will make the argument for Shadwell Stable's Mohaymen.
Laurie: Nyquist (Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) was a Grade 1 winner when Mohaymen was still figuring out how to enter a starting gate. While Mohaymen only had two starts under his girth, Nyquist was winning his fifth race from as many starts, the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Unlike his sire, the 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt Uncle Mo, Nyquist didn’t have an easy time of it in the race, making his victory all the more sweeter.
Ashley: Mohaymen (Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) has made Gulfstream Park his stomping grounds this winter. The handsome gray colt scared off a good bit of competition in both of the South Florida track's Florida Derby preps, easily taking both the G2 Holy Bull and G2 Fountain of Youth against compact fields. With 9 rivals lined up against him Saturday, this field will be the biggest he has seen since he dispatched of 8 foes in the G2 Remsen Stakes to close out his juvenile season. Only one of those rivals has the class and talent to potentially put a stop to the Mohaymen Express, but not even Nyquist can put a blemish on the gray colt's rapidly expanding résumé.
Laurie: Nyquist has a strong two-year-old foundation of five starts. Trainer Doug O’Neill gave the colt some time off before putting him through a series of five and six furlong breezes in preparation for Nyquist’s three-year-old debut in the San Vicente at seven furlongs. Naturally, Nyquist won that race too, only a second off of the track record of 1:19.70, while extending his lead under the wire to 1 ½ lengths.
Ashley: While Nyquist has one more win on his record than Mohaymen, the juvenile champion did most of his running as a two-year old. In terms of 3-year old form, which matters more to me at this point, Mohaymen holds the trump card. He has already faced the starter twice this season and has done so while running in two-turn, 1 1/16 mile events. That gives him a foundation that Nyquist does not yet have this year. Nyquist's San Vicente victory was certainly impressive, as Laurie pointed out, but let's face it, tacking on an extra sixteenth from the prior start is much easier than asking a colt to go two furlongs longer than his previous start. Speaking of distance, Mohaymen has also already been tested at the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby distance.
Laurie: Ok, so on the surface, Mohaymen has the more suitable pedigree for traveling 1 1/8 miles and is already a winner at the distance. You have me there, Ashley. However, Nyquist was bumped hard and was wide during the entire Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. According to Trakus, he traveled farther than the second and third place finishers. If Nyquist was an average sprinter/miler, he would have run out of oats during the race. Nyquist should handle the 1 1/8 miles of the Florida Derby. Plus, I have a strong suspicion that Nyquist carries a dominant large heart gene, which will allow him to outperform average expectations.
Ashley: Nyquist certainly put on a show in the BC Juvenile and did travel further than some of his competition, but what would happen if that same scenario played out in an actual 9 furlong race? While Nyquist traveled further than his foes going 1 1/16 mile, Mohaymen did also in a 1 1/8 mile event, though the only rival he out-ran in terms of distance was fifth place finisher Donegal Moon. However, I would argue that the fact that he did so in just his 3rd career start while going 9 furlongs is nothing short of impressive, especially when most of his peers have not been asked that particular question that early in their careers. Trakus also shows that Mohaymen ran further than all but the runner-up in the Nashua and all but fourth place finisher Awesome Speed in the Fountain of Youth, both races being carded at 8.5 furlongs.
Laurie: Nyquist is faster than Mohaymen. Nyquist has a high cruising speed and isn’t afraid to use it. He posted a 103 Bris speed figure in the San Vicente and the colt wasn’t cranked to his best. That was higher than either of Mohaymen’s two starts this year. Overall, Nyquist’s early fractions are much faster than Mohaymen’s. Many would argue that Nyquist’s final times aren’t as impressive, but Nyquist does only what he has to do to stay in front of his competition at the wire. You won’t see Nyquist win with flashy lengths unless the competition is so bad that Nyquist is forced to trot.
Ashley: I admittedly do not have the Brisnet speed figures in front of me, but what I do have are the Equibase and Beyer speed figures. For those that are Team Beyer, Nyquist does reign supreme, having earned a 100 Beyer for his San Vicente win versus the 95 Beyer assigned to both Mohaymen's Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth victories. However, the Equibase speed figures tell a different story. While Nyquist was given a 102 E figure for the BC Juvenile and a 107 for the San Vicente, Mohaymen posted a 106 in the Holy Bull and a whopping 115 in the Fountain of Youth. Numbers only tell part of the story, so while Nyquist may be speedier than Mohaymen, you cannot say for sure that he will be able to hold that speed down the lane while fighting off Mohaymen's stalk and pounce style.
Laurie: Trainer Doug O’Neill is winning with 20% shippers this year and Nyquist ships like a pro. Mohaymen may have the advantage of the home track, but he’ll be hindered by his outside post in the Florida Derby. Only 6% of starters from post 9 win at a mile and farther on the main track. From 2010 – 2015, only two colts from post 9 hit the board in the Florida Derby. Both finished second.
Ashley: Nyquist has proven that he can ship and win, that's true, Laurie, but there is something to be said for home track advantage. While it may be a stretch to call Gulfstream Mohaymen's “home” track, he has been based at nearby Palm Meadows all winter. Personally, I'm not bothered by Mohaymen's outside post as that will keep him out of trouble and give him room to stretch out his legs. I am also confident that jockey Junior Alvarado will put him in the best position to win the race.
Laurie: Nyquist’s race replays prove three things; This colt is stubborn, he loves a challenge, and he loves to physically and psychologically destroy his opponents. No one in six start has been able to eyeball Nyquist and get the best of him. Once he’s in front, the bay does only enough to stay there, teasing his opponents who are running their legs off. Just ask Swipe. If Mohaymen thinks he can go eyeball to eyeball with Nyquist and prevail, he better bring Visine.
Nyquist likes to take the battle to his competition from the outset. In five of six starts, Uncle Mo’s son has settled within a length of the pace setter. By the half-mile pole, Nyquist is playing with the heads of his rivals, daring them to keep up. Nyquist has always had the lead in the stretch, but doesn’t exert himself beyond the minimum of finishing in front. The tenacious bay proved that he didn’t need things to go his way in the Breeders’ Cup. He was in eighth place at the quarter mile and once again was a length in front of the competition in the stretch.
Ashley: Nyquist isn't the only one that can look an opponent in the eyeball and keep going. Mohaymen has done just that in all four of his stakes wins. He even took a good bit of the bumping doled out by Golden Ray in the Fountain of Youth and still ran his race. At two, he ran past his opponents in the stretch to get the job done, but at 3, Mohaymen has done that and more. He hasn't just put his rivals away, he has crushed them by open lengths while making it look easy as pie. Personally, Laurie, I think we're looking at a stretch battle of epic proportions when these two talented colts hook up.
The rest of the field?
The winner and runner-up positions are all but secured with the Top 2 being the class of the field, but that still leaves 8 colts and geldings to fill out the exotics and earn some Road to the Kentucky Derby points.
Laurie: Fellowship has chased Mohaymen twice and finished six lengths behind both times. What Fellowship has that the rest of the field lacks is a stalker’s running style. If the pace is fast, he’ll be picking them off at the end.
Majesto is a late blooming son of Tiznow. He finally found the winner’s circle in his fifth and final start, but has been off the board only once. Majesto is a half to 2013 Arkansas Derby hero Overanalyze and to Matron (G1) winner Meadow Breeze. Javier Castellano will let the colt settle mid-pack early and Majesto should have the ability to hit the board.
Chovanes could surprise the exotics. In his first three starts, the colt was stuck so far outside that he got caught in rush hour traffic on US 1. The first time the son of Colonel John drew a decent post, he won by five lengths. Chovanes has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Jorge Navarro feeds a high octane diet and is winning stakes races at 21% this year.
Ashley: Laurie, I tend to like Fellowship and Majesto, too. The former is proven class while the latter finally put it all together when Castellano hopped aboard for the first time. As you pointed out, he has a nice pedigree, but I also like that he earned a 102 Equibase speed figure for his maiden breaking win. It won't earn him the top spot, but a similar effort will see him rounding out the superfecta.
Aside from Fellowship and Majesto, I am also intrigued by maiden winner Takeittotheedge. Unlike the other six new shooters, this Broken Vow colt has just one career start. Making his debut in Gulfstream's 6th race on March 5, Takeittotheedge and Champion Apprentice jockey Tyler Gaffalione went straight to the lead and never looked back. Clicking off honest splits, the duo cruised to a 7 3/4-length victory, and Takeittotheedge was awarded a 108 speed figure for his effort. Only one other runner in this field besides the top 3 boasts a triple digit speed figure, namely the aforementioned Majesto.
Final thoughts:
Laurie: Nyquist will exit post four and has enough speed to find a comfortable staking position in either second or third place, but he probably won’t be more than a length or two off of the speed at most. He’s used to running quicker opening times than the rest, so Mario Gutierrez should have a chance to reserve the colt’s energy. Mohaymen will be forced to go wide the entire race, since he’s stuck in post 9. Nyquist will move to the lead right around the half mile pole with Mohaymen hot on his heels. Once they hit the stretch, Nyquist will play catch me if you can. If Mohaymen is good enough to go eye to eye with Nyquist, he’ll have to out-psyche the champ in order to win. I don’t see that happening.
Ashley: It looks like one of the trio of Chovanes, Takeittotheedge and Fashionable Freddy right to Mohaymen's inside will be the pace-maker. Maybe even Copingaway joins the early fray. But as Laurie pointed out, none of them carry the speed to which Nyquist is accustomed. Nyquist should get a nice early spot, but I also believe that Alvarado can get Mohaymen tucked in behind the leaders and won't be as wide as Laurie predicts. I see Nyquist and Mohaymen moving more together, with Nyquist getting the rail trip and Mohaymen swinging outside of foes. The two should hit the stretch together, and from there, let the battle play out! Nyquist may carry the speed, but Mohaymen will go right on by him as the distance proves to be a bit much for the undefeated juvenile champion.
Selections:
Laurie Ashley
#4 NYQUIST (6-5) #9 MOHAYMEN (1-1)
#9 MOHAYMEN (1-1) #4 NYQUIST (6-5)
#3 MAJESTO (20-1) #7 TAKEITTOTHEEDGE (20-1)
#6 CHOVANES (30-1) #3 MAJESTO (20-1)