2014 Breeders' Cup Classic: Previewing the field

Photo: Melanie Martines
 
The 2014 renewal of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic drew an overflow field of 15. Only fourteen can face the starter, so “also eligible” Big Cazanova can only get in if someone else scratches from the race. With most of the nation’s top older males out, the race looks to be dominated by the 3-year olds, two of which already own victories over their elders. So who looks like a winner and which competitors can be tossed? With just two days to go to the big event, I have broken down the field to show my top selection, contenders, questionables and tosses.
 
 
Top Selection: Shared Belief
 
There is little to no money to be made by picking Shared Belief to win, but short odds aside, I just cannot find a reason to pick against him. Regardless of what you think about the fields he has faced, there is no denying that the gelding has been anything but brilliant since beginning his career. With the top handicap males out of contention for one reason or another, Shared Belief’s biggest threats will come from his age group, most of which he has not yet faced due to missing the Triple Crown and its preps. He’s answered every question so far and will retain Hall of Famer Mike Smith as his pilot. The ball is in his court, and he appears primed to score.
 
 
Contenders: Bayern, Zivo, Tonalist, California Chrome, Prayer for Relief
 
Make no bones about it, Bayern, Tonalist and California Chrome have all made legitimate cases for why they can be considered among the best of their age group. When left alone on the lead, Bayern can run his foes into the ground and come home looking like he could go another lap around the track. The 1 ¼ mile distance will likely be the biggest issue for the Baffert speedster, and Moreno probably will not allow his younger rival an easy lead. Tonalist was unable to make the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but he more than made up for it beginning with the Belmont Stakes. He boasts wins in both the 1 ½ Test of the Champion and against his elders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and adds a nice 2nd in the Jim Dandy and 3rd in the Travers to his résumé. Hero of the first two legs of the Triple Crown California Chrome exited the Belmont with a minor injury and looked nothing like himself while finishing 6th in the Pennsylvania Derby. While that is cause for concern, when he’s hot, he’s hard to beat. I expect trainer Art Sherman to have his Derby winner ready to fire his best shot in the hopes of reclaiming the top spot amongst his peers.  
 
 
Zivo had his coming out party in the G2 Suburban back in July. After reeling off a series of wins in state bred company, trainer Chad Brown gave his charge the opportunity to prove exactly what he was capable of and was rewarded with a 3 length score in the 10 furlong event. A close 4th in the G1 Woodward and a nice 2nd to Tonalist in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup proved that win wasn’t a fluke. With a fairer surface at Santa Anita and a good bit of speed in the race, stretch running Zivo stands as good a chance of winning the Classic as any of the others in this category.
 
 
Prayer for Relief may only have 8 wins from 33 career starts, but the 6-year old son of Jump Start always shows up and puts in a competitive effort. Winless this year, the Zayat runner has nonetheless hit the board in 4 of 8 starts this season. He may not have the best chance to win, but leaving him out of the exotics is a risk I don’t intend to take.
 
 
Questionables: Cigar Street, Moreno, V. E. Day, Toast of New York, Candy Boy, Majestic Harbor
 
Though a case could be made for any of these 6, I have serious questions about all of them. Cigar Street looked poised to rise to the top of the division last year after winning the G3 Skip Away, but a fracture to his right hind leg sidelined him for nearly 17 months. When he’s been healthy, he’s been very good. However, with just 2 starts this year, I question whether he’ll have the foundation and stamina to put in a winning run in the year’s biggest race.
 
 
Whether you love him or hate him, there’s no denying that trainer Eric Guillot has a good one in Moreno. When allowed to establish an easy lead, the Ghostzapper gelding can be hard to run down. But with Bayern in the race, an uncontested lead may not be in the cards.
 
 
V. E. Day has proven to be a versatile type in his short career. The English Channel colt owns wins on the turf, sloppy dirt and fast dirt. A win in the G1 Travers put him in the Top 3-Year Old discussion, but thanks to a rough running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, it is difficult to discern whether the Travers was a freak performance or the real deal.
 
 
UAE Derby hero Toast of New York has yet to make a start on traditional dirt. He ran a good 2nd to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic, but the lack of dirt form is worrying. Much like Prayer for Relief, Candy Boy always shows up and puts in a good run. Occasionally he wins, but more often than not he simply fills out the exotics. Given the choice between him and Prayer, I have to give the nod to the elder runner in terms of which I feel has the better chance to pick up a piece of the pie utilizing their run style. Majestic Harbor has only gotten better with age, but he has also shown that he does best when given a solid route of ground with which to work. He won the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita going the 10 furlong distance, but I think the son of Rockport Harbor may prefer an even longer distance.
 
 
Tosses: Imperative, Footbridge
 
Imperative gained millionaire status due to winning just one race, the rich G2 Charles Town Classic. The biggest win of his career looks to be a fluke, the result of an affinity for the bullring that is Charles Town. On a traditional track and against top class competition, Imperative is definitely an outsider. Bred by Darley and owned by Godolphin, Footbridge has a nice pedigree and has been running well as of late. He wasn’t beaten by much when finishing 3rd in the G1 Awesome Again, but his speed figures just are not as good as some of the others in this spot. 

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