Runhappy headlines solid seven horse group in Grade I Malibu
Saturday marks the start of the highly anticipated Santa Anita Park winter meeting, and the Arcadia, California, venue has an incredible card on tap headlined by the 64th running of the Malibu Stakes. The $300,000 Grade I event for three-year-olds is contested at seven furlongs and has attracted a solid field of seven, including Breeders’ Cup Sprint Champion Runhappy. The Super Saver colt has been brilliant in 2015, earning over $1.3 million dollars and rattling off six wins in seven starts. In the Malibu, he'll look to end the campaign a perfect 3 for 3 in Grade I events. Runhappy will not have things easy as two star Godolphin Racing colts, and California’s own Bob Baffert, both have upset on their minds. The eighth race on the nine race Opening Day card is set for 4:00 PM local time and makes up the third leg of the late Pick 4.
Since an incredibly determined victory in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland on Halloween, Runhappy has made racing headlines for the bizzare exchange of events between his former trainer Maria Borrell, current conditioner Laura Wohlers, and owner James “Mattress Mac” McIngvale, but regardless of the off-track soap opera, the $200,000 Keeneland September 2013 purchase enters the Malibu as strictly the horse to beat. He has hit the wire first in five straight, including the highly prestigious Kings Bishop at Saratoga, the Phoenix at Keeneland, and of course, in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships when he ran down star older sprinter Private Zone. Not only has Runhappy won at five different racetracks, but he has won over a synthetic surface, an off track, and an extremely speed favoring track at the “Spa.” Plain and simple he has been brilliant. On Saturday, he looks to have a pace advantage over his main competition and is a well deserving 6-5 on Jon White’s morning line. Hall of Famer Gary Stevens will get his first mount on Runhappy, with regular rider Edgar Prado sidelined with an injury.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and mighty Godolphin Racing LLC do not appear afraid of Runhappy based on their decision to ship two lightly raced colts to Southern California for the Grade I sprint. Marking, the undefeated son of Bernardini, leaves his home turf of New York for the first time in search of his initial win against stakes company. He could not have won much easier as the odds-on favorite in both of his first two starts, but the sledding gets tougher on Saturday. Not only will his class be tested, but he moves to an inside post for the first time after breaking from more advantageous outside positions in both of his previous two races. There is little doubt that he has a ton of talent, but there are a number of questions he must answer as the 5-2 second choice. East Coast based Jose Lezcano wiil get the “leg up.”
Watershed makes up the second half of the McLaughlin/Godolphin uncoupled entry and is listed as the 4-1 morning line third choice. This colt was superb when breaking his maiden at first asking at Saratoga on August 7. Horseplayers were so impressed with the effort that they bet him down to 7-2 in his first start against winners in the Kings Bishop later that month. His normal gate issues cost him any chance that day, but he far from disgraced himself when closing for fourth in a race where few others made up any ground late. McLaughlin gave the Bernardini colt a bit of time off before giving him some class relief at Keeneland in mid-October. In that return effort, he made short work of an allowance group at odds of 2-5. It is hard to get too excited about his chances in the Malibu given his inability to hit the ground running, but if he can break with the rest of the field, he certainly has the late kick to run them down in the final strides. Joel Rosario returns to California in search of the graded stakes victory.
While the top three betting choices ship in from the East Coast for the Malibu, California based Lord Nelson returns from a lengthy layoff in search of his first victory since the San Vicente back in early February. The Bob Baffert runner has won 3 of 8 in his career and drew well to the outside for Saturday’s feature, but he will need a career best effort to compete with the top few in here. While he appears slower on paper, the Pulpit colt has shown an affinity for the racetrack having won 2 of 4 at Santa Anita and for the distance finishing first and second in his two tries at seven panels. California’s leading rider Rafael Bejarano gets the call in his first try against Grade I competition since a fourth place effort as a two-year-old in the FrontRunner.
Gotham Stakes winner El Kabeir ships cross-country in search of the upset for trainer John Terranova and Zayat Stables. The son of Scat Daddy was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after a solid start to 2015 in New York and has run decently in two starts since returning to the track in late October. In his most recent start, he won a tight photo at even money in the City of Laurel Stakes in Maryland, but will need to improve immensely in his first start in Southern California to compete with the likes of Runhappy. Mike Smith gets his first shot on him in the Malibu.
Bad Read Sanchez appears way over his head in here for Reddam Racing and Doug O’Neill, but the addition of blinkers should have him prominently placed. He likely will not be involved late, but could make things difficult for the favorite early. Pain and Misery rounds out the field for trainer Henry Dominguez. The Bob and John gelding was as game as they come in the Zia Park Derby last month, but the “waters” get much deeper in this spot. The rail draw only hinders his chances.
If Runhappy runs back to any of his previous three races they will be running for second place in the 2015 Malibu Stakes, but the ship to the West Coast, as well as the drama off the track present potential pitfalls. His probable 4-5 price against a solid group of sprinters makes him tough to support financially, but his pace advantage and speed figures make the task for his opposition a daunting one. The Godolphin runners have some serious talent, but have not been in a tussle in the lane with the likes of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner. Lord Nelson could sit a perfect trip and the seven-eighths distance should once again suit him well. I think he has the best chance for the upset, but likely will be second best.
Stay with us this week on Horse Racing Nation, as I will have full card analysis of Opening Day at Santa Anita, including a look at the Pick 5 as well as the late Pick 4 on “Shapper Da California Capper.” Have Happy and Safe Holidays!