Potential Value Plays on a Saturday at Santa Anita Park

Race 1

We start Saturday afternoon at Santa Anita Park with a state-bred maiden special weight event over the main track at the challenging six and a half furlong distance. #4 Contemplate is very intriguing making his debut for trainer Donald Warren. Warren used to struggle with debut runners, but has been stellar in 2015 with five wins in 18 starts and a ROI of $4.77.  Additionally, this son of Vronsky is out of a mare that has produced two six-digit earners.  Contemptible, a daughter of Something Lucky, was the broodmare for $363,000 earner Tempting Date as well as $207,000 earner Overly Tempting making her that much more appealing. Generally I prefer runners with experience at six and a half panels, but this colt meets a very beatable group and is worth a long look if at his morning line price of 4-1 or higher.

Race 2

The second is a maiden special weight event down the hill for three-year olds and upward and offers horseplayers a field of 11 fillies and mares to choose from.  A few first time starters likely will be runners in the future including Glen Hill Farm’s filly Marketplace and Swift Thoroughbreds Birthday, but I am going to side with a runner with experience as a two-year old instead to start the early Pick 4. #4 Sweeter Thancandy for Mark Glatt made three starts as a two-year old before being “laid up” until Saturday.  She had troubled starts in her debut over Del Mar’s synthetic surface and then in her first voyage over this course in early October. Despite trouble in both races, she still was able to finish well. Her last race before the layoff was a mile event where she finished fourth in a 12-horse field going a mile on the lawn despite another less than ideal trip. 

Sweeter Thancandy took money in all three starts, which is extremely encouraging for a barn that does not always draw attention at the windows with their juvenile runners. The daughter of Candy Ride has solid pedigree on the bottom being out of Czechers.  The daughter of Indian Charlie earned nearly $300,000 over her career including success in stakes races over the Santa Anita lawn. Czechers first progeny reportedly has been training well for her return and meets a fairly beatable group. She is definitely worth using on all tickets if anywhere close to her morning line odds of 6-1.

Race 4

The fourth is a starter allowance event down the hill over six and a half furlongs with a field of 12 ready to break from the gate a bit before 2PM local time.  This race could go a number of ways so I will take a chance with a price.  #5 Mia’s Storm for the great Ron McAnally returns to the races after a break of over six months. Despite limited success in her three-year old campaign, the daughter of Kodiak Kowboy makes her second start over the hillside turf course and could be rolling late if the pace is hot. Flavien Prat, who has been riding incredibly well this meet, will take his first mount on the four-year old filly. She may leave herself with too much to do, but if Prat can get her into the race early, she could be rolling late. She is worth a shot at a juicy morning line price of 12-1.

Race 8

Home Run Kitten meets a strong field of 8 for Saturday’s Grade III American Stakes run at one mile over the Santa Anita turf course.  The bulk of attention will be paid to Brazilian Triple Crown winner Bal a Bali who was purchased by Fox Hill Farms/Siena Farms and given to Hall of Famer Richard Mandella. Despite nearly dying from a bout with laminitis the foreign-bred colt is back and training incredibly for his North American debut. He certainly is the deserving favorite, but also a horse that is a play against for me.  The time off as well as the new surroundings are simply too much of a concern for me to play the son of Put It Back at a short price. He is hard to “toss,” but impossible for me to consider betting to win. Therefore, the handicapper in me will look elsewhere.

Winning Prize and Talco both look solid on paper and have run well over the course, but are likely to regress on Saturday.  On the other hand, the son of Kitten’s Joy, Home Run Kitten could be sitting on a career effort. The David Hofmans runner has always shown class and consistency, but often times has settled for underneath finishes. Coming out of a sprint just three weeks ago, I expect jockey Joe Talamo to have him up a bit closer than normal early. Hofmans is not one to rush a runner back before they are ready to run, so it is extremely encouraging to see him entered less than a month after his last race.  The last time he went from an event down the hill to a mile event, he ran one of his best races to date in the Grade II Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes over this course.

I expect another monster effort today from Home Run Kitten, which likely will be good enough for a top two finish. If the price is right, I will be placing a win wager on this four-year old colt as well as using in exactas with Enterprising and Gabriel Charles.  I also will likely play a saver trifecta key with the likely favorite over these three price horses.