BC Juvenile Turf: Europeans look to continue success
The Breeders’ Cup World Championships are less than a week away and I could not be more excited. Some years are best known for the immortals that dominate fields at short prices and surprising long shots that have so often defeated the near “cinches” on paper. Other racing seasons offer horseplayers such challenging cards that they still do not feel confident despite the endorsement of three or four runners per race. 2014 is one of those years. The pre-entries released last week offer handicappers extremely puzzling sequences, as well as several opportunities to hit monster scores. I simply cannot wait.
Despite the plethora of races that appear “ripe” for double-digit winners, the Juvenile Turf is one Breeders’ Cup events that has never produced a long shot. In fact, the grass event for two-year olds started in 2007 at Monmouth Park and still has never seen a winner pay more than its inaugural victor Nownownow. He was 12-1. Perhaps the 2014 version will bring value players their first chance at a “bust out,” or maybe finding a “figure horse” to single in Friday’s horizontal wagers is the better approach to the first championship race of the weekend.
I will be using “First Time Turf” over the days leading up to the 2014 Breeders’ Cup World Championships to evaluate the field and analyze how the race is likely to setup. Hopefully, I can help make things a bit clearer and help provide insight into one of my favorite races over the two days at Santa Anita. Maybe I can even help make us all some money to get the weekend started correctly.
As always, the Europeans will hold a large hand in the Juvenile Turf. Led by the uncoupled Aidan O’Brien entry of The Great War and War Envoy it will be surprising if those shipping in from overseas do not have a major say in this year’s outcome. The Irish born O’Brien hopes to continue his recent success in the two-year old event and appears to have a major chance to do so. Having won the event in both 2011 and 2012 with Wrote and George Vancouver, the world-class conditioner once again sends major contenders across the sea in hopes of taking down the lion’s share of the $1 million purse. Ryan Moore who rode both previous winners is likely to once again get the “leg up” on one of the two contenders as well as Aidan’s son Joseph O’Brien when riders are announced early in the week. The powerful team of Tabor, Magnier and Smith owned Wrote and George Vancouver and also own both O’Brien entrants in the 2014 rendition. Seeing them in the winners’ circle once again will hardly be surprising.
Of course, the European runners are not just represented by Aidan O’Brien. Qatar Racing’s son of Henrythenavigator, Wet Sail will not get the same respect on the tote board as the more regally bred colts, but he tries a route of ground for the first time for trainer Charlie Fellowes. Britsh bred Aktabantay will seek his third lifetime victory as he also tries going long for the first time for conditioner Hugo Palmer. He will have to improve off of his sixth-place effort in a Grade I on October 5th at Longchamp if he hopes to cross the wire first in this group. Finally, the Juddmonte Farms’ Commemorative will be in search of his third straight win when he arrives in Arcadia, California. This son of Zaminder has looked extremely impressive in his last two victories in Great Britain and certainly is in with a chance for trainer Charles Hills.
While the European runners once again provide the Juvenile Turf field with much of its class and talent, the North American contingent is not without a chance of winning the event for the first time since Pluck did so in 2010. One of America’s best chances will be from the third of the Tabor, Magnier, Smith entrants Hootenanny, who returns to the States after two successful sprints over European surfaces. This son of Quality Road certainly offers enough talent and class to win, but there are serious concerns on whether he can get the distance. Wesley Ward trains this colt, as well Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey’s Luck of the Kitten. This son of Kitten’s Joy has two wins and two runner-up finishes in four tries, but will probably need to come from off the pace for the first time if he is to win in his first graded stakes opportunity. The Ramsey’s also own the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, International Star who comes off a win over Woodbine’s all-weather surface in the Grade III Grey Stakes on October 5th. This colt has shown durability thus far in his racing career, but will need to step it up to defeat the world’s best.
New York’s summer and early fall of racing also produced a few solid contenders for the 2014 Juvenile Turf including Godolphin Racing’s Imperia. This son of Medaglia d’Oro was extremely impressive in breaking his maiden in the Grade III Pilgrim Stakes on September 28th at a mile and a sixteenth and could be the “real deal.” He closed extremely well when getting Lasix for the first time and his pedigree suggests that getting the distance was not a fluke. He could be the best chance the Americans have, but his lack of experience is a huge concern.
Chad Brown dominated two-year old grass races at Saratoga this summer so it is far from shocking that he sends out two in this year’s Juvenile Turf. Brown, who has won two Breeders’ Cup races thus far in his flourishing career as a conditioner, will hope that Startup Nation and Offering Plan are not being shipped cross-country without a chance. Both runners sold for a considerable amount despite less than regal pedigrees and will hope to roll late on Friday afternoon. Lawn Ranger and Danny Boy both travel to Southern California after strong efforts in Keeneland’s Grade III Bourbon Stakes, but will need to step things up if they hope to pull off the upset. Conquest Typhoon is the lone Canadian bred in the field and has shown the propensity to run second place in four career starts for trainer Mark Casse. However, the mile distance and the rail draw could prove ideal for this son of Stormy Atlantic.
Check back to “First Time Turf” each and every day this week leading up to the 2014 Juvenile Turf as I will not only look at the contenders and the pretenders, but will have selections along with full analysis as well.
I have “Cup Fever,” do you? Have a great day!