Breeders' Cup Distaff 2016: Pre-entry Analysis

The pre-entries for the 2016 Breeders’ Cup were announced on Wednesday morning at Santa Anita Park and as expected next weekend’s Longines Distaff features some of the game’s biggest stars. 

Undefeated three-year-old filly Songbird will put her perfect record on the line, but will face her toughest test yet against the likes of Hronis Racing’s Stellar Wind and champion mare Beholder.

The pre-entries for Friday’s two million dollar feature included nine females and will be contested at a mile and an eighth over the main track. 

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The aforementioned Songbird is the likely favorite when they go to the post on November 5. The Fox Hills Farms’ filly has rattled off seven in a row in 2016, including three consecutive Grade I wins away from home on the East Coast. Her most recent five and a half length victory in the Cotillion at Parx may have been her most impressive as she came from off the pace to beat Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia and fellow Breeders’ Cup Distaff entrant Carina Mia.

While Songbird has dominated her competition and her 11 for 11 record is hard to critique, her speed figures/performance ratings suggest that she could get all she can handle against Stellar Wind and Beholder. It remains to be seen exactly how much attention she will get at the pari-mutuel windows, but she is almost certain to be on the front end in this group and should be very difficult to pass in the stretch.

Stellar Wind won the Eclipse Award for champion three-year-old filly in 2015 and has moved forward quite a bit in 2016 for trainer John Sadler. After being defeated by Beholder in the Grade I Vanity Mile on June 4, she has beaten the six-year-old mare in two straight Grade I events in Southern California. In both efforts jockey Victor Espinoza stalked Beholder throughout and wore her down in the lane.

Stellar Wind enters the 2016 Breeders’ Cup 7 for 11 in her career and 4 for 5 over the Santa Anita main track. Despite her affinity for the course, she has yet to hit the wire first in two tries at the nine-furlong distance, but those both came in 2015.

The Curlin filly has continued to progress throughout her four-year-old campaign, but has drawn outside of Beholder and been the recipient of a perfect trip in each of her last two starts. It will be interesting to see how she will perform if drawn to the inside or if she encounters traffic next weekend.

Beholder is likely to retire after the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. What a career it has been for the daughter of Henny Hughes. The winner of 17 of 25 career starts, including the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, will look to go out on top after being scratched out of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic due to illness.

One must expect Hall of Fame conditioner Richard Mandella will have his “big horse” ready to roll in her swan’s song next Friday after three consecutive runner-up efforts in Southern California. While she has failed to find the winners’ circle of late, she has still run fast races and is definitely in with a big shot in the Distaff.

Beholder has inherited the lead in both of her recent starts against females, but prefers to stalk right off the early pace. The presence of Songbird should allow regular rider Gary Stevens to get Beholder into a more ideal position early. Her 13 wins and two second place finishes in 15 starts at Santa Anita Park cannot be overlooked and the price could be right for the first time in a long time against her own gender.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, it will take a career best performance for any of the other pre-entries to win the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Larry Jones trained I’m a Chatterbox has won 8 of her 16 career starts and enters the Distaff off of a dominating seven length score in the Grade I Spinster at Keeneland. The Munnings filly drew the rail in last year’s rendition of this event and never really got a fair chance to run. However, only her controversial effort three-back in the Grade I Delaware Handicap is fast enough to compete with the top three contenders. She is 2 for 6 with four in the money finishes at the mile and an eighth distance and has never competed at Santa Anita Park.

Much like I’m a Chatterbox, Charles Fipke’s Forever Unbridled has her work cut out for her in this year’s Distaff. The four-year-old daughter of Unbridled’s Song has won 3 of 5 starts in 2016, including victories in the Grade I Apple Blossom and the Grade I Beldame, but has never competed at Santa Anita. She has been ultra consistent hitting the board in each of her last six starts, but is likely running for a minor share at best next weekend.

Carina Mia and Curalina are both cross-entered for both the Distaff and the Filly & Mare Sprint.  Curalina is the more likely of the two to opt for the Distaff.

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Curalina has been ultra consistent throughout her 12-race career hitting the board in all but one start. After a dominating performance in the slop in the Grade III Shuvee Handicap at Saratoga, she returned to run a solid second to the now retired Cavorting in the Grade I Personal Ensign. The Todd Pletcher trained daughter of Curlin appears too slow on paper to win the Distaff, but her consistency make her a potential value play in the exotics.

Three-year-old filly Carina Mia has won 2 of 6 in 2016, including the Grade I Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park in June, but has been soundly defeated by Songbird in two tries this summer. She appears at her best at one turn and is more likely to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

Reddam Racing’s Land Over Sea has not hit the board in her last three starts and has won just 2 of her 12 lifetime tries. The Bellamy Road filly ran second to Songbird several times in her career and finished a nice second to Cathryn Sophia in this year’s Kentucky Oaks, but is overmatched in here. Perhaps she can “pick up the pieces” if they go extremely fast early, but even that seems unlikely given her current form.

Corona del Inca won the Grade I Gran Premio Criadores by a nose to earn an automatic berth into the Distaff. She has a record of 4 wins in 10 starts and has earned just over $70,000. The daughter of Luhuk has not raced since the victory on May 1^st and is unlikely to factor in the outcome.

The Distaff will be the featured ninth race on Santa Anita Park’s Friday afternoon Breeders’ Cup card. It should be one of the more memorable renditions of the event.