Full Card Analysis of Opening Day at Santa Anita Park

Saturday is Opening Day at Santa Anita Park, and I could not be more excited. Southern California racing fans are presented with a wonderful nine race card to get things rolling in Arcadia, California for the winter. The first five races comprise the fifty-cent Players’ Pick Five, the best bet in racing in my opinion given the takeout and the generally superb payouts. The final four races make up the late Pick Four and include both the Grade I La Brea and Grade I Malibu. There are several ways to attack both horizontal wagers, but here is how I see the races.

Race 1

The opener is a $20K open claimer at six and a half furlongs. I will look to beat the two morning line choices #5 Sacred Ovation and #3 Airfoil to start the meet. Sacred Ovation is 0 for 3 at Saturday's distance and appears to be a horse that struggles to finish races. Airfoil fits at the level, but his 2 for 28 record is completely uninspiring. My top choice is the second of the Peter Miller runners #6 Moonlight Meeting. This gelding has won 3 of 5 at Santa Anita Park and gets the services of jockey Joel Rosario. He should sit a great trip in his first start for Miller and Rockingham Ranch. #1 El Nino Terrible drops in class off the voided claim for Doug O'Neill. He faces the weakest group of his career and takes the blinkers off for the first time since January of 2014. #4 Luca adds the blinkers and is an interesting long shot.

Race 2

These $50K California Bred or California Sired maiden events are some of the toughest races to deal with on the Southern California circuit. For that reason, I will be spreading quite a bit in this one on my Pick 5 ticket. My top choice is first-time gelding #4 Calvert Street off the barn change to Eric Kruljac. This son of Slew’s Tiznow was prominently placed at a mile against open company $40K maidens on October 15 and should sit a nice trip on the cutback in distance. I also give a big look to first-time starters #3 Elkhorn Crown, a son of Forest Command that has been working well for trainer David Bernstein, as well as #10 Da Brooklyn Kid for the strong connections of Phil D’Amato and Tiago Pereira. If playing an aggressive ticket I recommend defensively using #5 Gambler’s Wish, #9 Nusret and #12 Little Mustard since I do not have a strong opinion. All three of these have had their chances against equally poor groups and disappointed, but could improve in this spot.

Race 3

The third is a maiden special weight event for two-year-old fillies at five and a half furlongs over the main track. This is a race where your guess is as good as mine. It is hard to get excited about any of the eleven probable starters. #1 Escapee for Bob Baffert has been far from impressive in her first four starts, but the cutback in distance and addition of blinkers could prove enough to beat a weak group.  #2 Cecile’s Diamond has been working well for Kristin Mulhall, but this barn rarely gets the job done with first-time starters.  #6 Asian’s Way is the 3-1-morning line favorite, but the Baltas barn is only 2 for 20 with two-year-old debut runners at the MSW level over the past five years.  Hard to endorse at a short price, but is certainly capable of hitting the wire first. I liked #11 Candy Boss in her debut for John Sadler and Hronis Racing, but she was extremely unimpressive and now Sadler turns to jockey Abel Lezcano? #10 Josie the E F Five had two solid efforts in the Southwest before entering the Sean McCarthy barn, but how often do Oklahoma-Breds win in Southern California? #7 Cobia and #9 Quigley’s Corner both could be runners, but Proctor and Glen Hill Farm also struggle with two-year-old debut runners sprinting over the main track.  I will spread in the Pick 5 and take a shot on #4 Everqueen. The daughter of Colonel John sold for over 14 times her sire’s stud fee earlier this year and faded badly in her debut in early September. Maybe she can break well and run big for her new barn at a huge price. 

Race 4

The Grade III $100,000 Daytona (Turf)

The first stakes race and grass event on the Opening Day card is the competitive Daytona down the hill. It is hard to forget how speed favoring the lawn at Santa Anita was in the fall and with that in mind it is hard to toss #4 Rocket Heat. The son of Latent Heat appears to be the “speed of the speed” and could shake loose early.  He has been training well, but I truly wonder if he has the stamina to be successful on this course.  Fellow three-year-old #1 Richard’s Boy is coming off a career best effort in a high level optional claiming event at Del Mar, but drew the rail and much like Rocket Heat may prefer the more traditional turf sprint distances than the voyage down the hillside course. #12 No Silent has been a different horse since winning a $50K claimer at Del Mar this summer. Before a sixth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, the Gary Mandella trainee rattled off three straight, including a win over this course in the Grade III Eddie D. on October 3. He drew well to the outside and is the one to beat in this one. # 7 Alert Bay must be respected based on his desire to win, his current form and his affinity for the Santa Anita sod, but I wonder if he is at his best at a distance this short. He appears to be more of a “grinder” to me.  #10 The Great War is very intriguing and worth a gamble. The War Front colt has been very inconsistent since arriving in the States last November, but his best is likely good enough to win this. I like the freshening from trainer Wesley Ward and I think this course could be perfect for him. He should get a great trip from the 10-hole and at 8-1 provides the most value in this group. #9 Holy Lute makes sense, but has run second too many times down the hill to inspire using him on top at a relatively short price.  #5 Big Bane Theory and #11 Somethings Unusual could “pick up the pieces” late at big prices.

Race 5

The final leg of the Pick 5 is a maiden special weight event at the tricky seven-furlong distance and features my top play on Saturday’s card. #3 Danzing Candy is in a great spot to move forward significantly in his second career start. Trainer Clifford Sise, Jr has not won with a two-year-old first-time starter over the past five years, yet this son of Twirling Candy showed some serious talent despite a horrific trip in his debut. In that event, Danzing Candy could not overcome a poor start from the rail and traffic trouble on the backstretch, but did show signs of being a runner. His works in the morning, statistics suggesting runners from this barn improve regularly in their second start and a lackluster field on Saturday make this colt a strong play at his 7-2-morning line price. The rider switch to Mike Smith should only help. If you are looking for more value perhaps one of the two Jerry Hollendorfer first-time starters could provide just that. Both Mr. Coker and An Khe Pass are bred to be runners and have shown strong, steady work patterns leading up to their debuts. They would be my alternates if I were looking to go deeper than my top choice.

Race 6

The Mathis Brothers Mile Grade II $200,000 (Turf)

The Grade II Mathis Brother Mile kicks off Saturday’s late Pick 4 and offers Southern California horseplayers a 12-horse field of three-year olds going two turns over the Santa Anita lawn.  The race definitely goes through 5-2-morning line favorite #10 Om. The Munnings colt returns to Arcadia after a somewhat disappointing third place finish in the Grade I Hollywood Derby at Del Mar. In that event, Om was forced to sit second due to the presence of the speedy #7 Acceptance and tired late at the nine-furlong distance.  Acceptance and #8 Ike Walker will once again force Om to either go very quick early or sit just off the early pace. This once again makes the Dan Hendricks runner a vulnerable favorite despite the best speed figures and strongest resume. #6 Mister Brightside had a horrific trip in the Hollywood Derby under jockey Kent Desormeaux and makes his first start for new conditioner Paddy Gallagher. With a better voyage under new jockey Mike Smith, he could be set for his first trip to the winners’ circle since arriving in the States this fall.  #11 Ocho Ocho Ocho is the “wild card” in the Mathis Brothers. The son of Street Sense has not been seen since a fourth place finish in the Penn Mile on May 30, but has the class and running style to beat this group. One must question whether he has peaked as a two-year-old and whether the outside draw will impact his chances, but he has trained well and gets the services of Santiago Gonzalez for his return to the races. If the pace collapses in this one it could set things up for #5 Soul Driver and #9 Vigilante. Soul Driver has shown he loves this course and is probably best at the eight-furlong distance. Vigilante makes his first start for Phil D’Amato and has never finished worse than second in four career starts. Both will need things to go their way to hit the wire first and are more likely to earn minor rewards even with a brisk early pace. I am going to play a small Pick 4 ticket starting with just Mister Brightside and Ocho Ocho Ocho, but clearly there can be a case for spreading deeper.

Race 7

The La Brea Grade I $300,000

The La Brea for three-year-old fillies drew a field of ten probable runners for the 2015 rendition. #3 Cavorting is the deserving 5-2-morning line favorite shipping in from the East Coast for Stonestreet Stables. The winner of 5 of 8 lifetime starts, including the Grade I Test at Saratoga this summer is the clear class of the field and the one to beat. If she can avoid a poor break and takes to the Santa Anita surface she should win, however it is never ideal to come from too far out of it over this course. #2 Hot City Girl is the 3-1 second choice for trainer Linda Rice. While the City Zip filly has looked great rattling off three straight wins in front running fashion, she should be challenged a bit more on the front end on Saturday. That combined with the “class hike” have me siding with others. #7 Rattataptap is probably not good enough to beat Cavorting, but is an improving daughter of Tapit. She is coming off a strong win against optional claimers going a mile at Del Mar and the cut back to seven panels should suit her well. She draws well and is worth using on all tickets at a price.  #10 Finest City should be prominently placed early for trainer Ian Kruljac and on her best day has numbers that fit here. #6 Ben’s Duchess sat a perfect trip off a four-horse duel in the Grade III LA Woman on October 4. She loves this course, but is likely destined for an underneath finish in this spot.

Race 8

The Malibu Stakes Grade I $300,000

For coverage of the Grade I sprint for three-year-olds check out my full-length preview here

Race 9

The finale is a challenging turf affair at a mile and an eighth and could make or break many handicappers Opening Day afternoons. I will look to #11 What a View as my top choice. Remember this son of Vronsky? This is the gelding that Kent Desormeaux stopped riding in the final portion of a race on November 7 at Del Mar before being beaten a nose at the wire by long shot Professor Berns. Desormeaux returns to ride him on Saturday and should be able to clear and take this group gate-to-wire. If he is contested early by #1 Boone Docks, #8 Eckersley, or # 12 Grachus the Hunter, it could set things up for #5 Hunt, #3 China Girl Lover, or #2 Dreaming of Gold. Any of the three with the right trip could run down What a View late if he is softened up early. I expect the Graham Motion runners to be overbet, so I will side against them as well as the ultimate hanger #10 Unusually Green. I had #6 Itsinthepost last time at 47-1 and could see him getting apiece in here once again.

Good luck to everyone on Opening Day! Anyone as excited as I am?