Who's Your Alternate?

There is an ample amount of conversation about selecting horses in mythical Win/Place handicapping contests such as those offered by Derby Wars but one area, at least to my knowledge, has been forgotten. It may seem like an insignificant part of the strategy because it so rarely comes into play but there may come a time when it is the difference between winning thousands of dollars and finishing out of the money.

Selecting an Alternate


Derby Wars allows players to select an alternate horse in each race of their handicapping contests. In the event that the top selection is scratched or declared a non-runner the alternate is made the selection in the race. Like I said this does not happen frequently but like every part of the handicapping contest strategy it should be given the proper attention.


If you play on Derby Wars take a minute and think about how you select your alternate horses. Do you simply make your second choice your alternate? Do you think about how the race dynamics would change if your primary horse scratches? Do you consider the odds of your top choice and alternate? If you are like most players the answers to those questions are probably yes to the first and no to the second and third. This is a big mistake.


When handicapping a race there is a good possibility that your top choice and second choice will have contrasting running styles. You may prefer a speed horse but think that he/she will compromise the chances of the other speed horses so your second choice will likely be a pace presser or closer. If your speed horse scratches how does that affect the chance of your alternate? That is the type of question this post will answer.


Think Similar Run Styles


Unless a track has a huge speed bias or the pace figures to be glacial it is likely that a front running winner will compromise the other speed. That leads most players to land on a presser or closer as their second choice. While this is a sound strategy for Exacta wagering it is not for a handicapping contest. If your front runner scratches the most likely winner would be the next best front runner right?


The most visible example for following this strategy is when a race has two speed horses. If one scratches the other is lone speed and assuming the horse fits the conditions of the race would be the most likely winner. That second speed might be your third choice or not considered a contender but when the dynamics of the race are changed by the scratch of your primary selection they may move up to the top.


The same type of thinking can be applied to pace pressers and closers. If the pace of the race puts you on one of those running styles it makes sense to make your alternate a horse with the same running style. If the pace looks very hot and you land on a closer but that horse scratches the most likely winner would be the next best closer right?


The Chaos Race


Some races look impossible on paper and/or the favorites look vulnerable. In those races the best strategy is to look for the best value (the most likely long shot). When you come across this type of race and find your clever long shot think about your alternate selection as well. The logical course of action is to select another live long shot as your alternate. If you expect chaos you should not be making the favorite or second choice your alternate.


First Time Starters


Maiden races are among my favorite races to handicap now, especially in handicapping contests. They are far easier to handicap and take much less time than say a 14 horse optional claiming race with 4 also eligibles where half the field looks exactly the same. In maiden special weight races the most likely winner is the second time starter that ran well (finished in the money or within a few lengths) in his or her debut at the level. In maiden claiming races the most likely winner is a horse dropping from a maiden special weight, especially those that have run well or shown speed. When neither of those situations is present and none of the horses that have run look like the winner a first time starter is the most viable option.


Following the same approach as mentioned in the previous sections the appropriate course of action if you like a first time starter in a contest race is to also choose another first time starter as an alternate. You probably have noticed a pattern in the strategy for selecting an alternate horse, which is to select a similar horse to your primary selection. The final scenario below will further reinforce this strategy.


The End Game


It's the final race of a Derby Wars handicapping contest. You are trailing the leader by $12.00. Your top selection is 5/1 and a win will net you the top prize so long as the leader is on a different horse. Your second choice is 7/2. If that horse wins it will be close but you could still pull off a close victory. What should you do?


First things first the 7/2 horse could very likely be the pick of the leader. Second if your 5/1 shot scratches the odds of the 7/2 shot will decrease possibly below the required odds. The logical solution to this conundrum is to select an alternate that is greater in odds than the 5/1 shot. This will protect you from coming up short because there is nothing worse than missing by a dollar in a contest giving out thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.


Final Thoughts


You may have been employing some of these strategies already but if not I would definitely recommend incorporating them into your handicapping contest play. If you have any other strategies that would fit well into this arsenal please share them in the comments section below and hopefully I will see you soon in a Derby Wars contest.