Upset Possibility in the Kentucky Oaks?

When it was announced that Songbird would miss the 2016 Kentucky Oaks I was both happy and sad. As a horse player a race with a legitimate 1/9 favorite usually offers no value so I was happy she would miss the race. Songbird may be not only the best three year old filly but the best three year old period. From a horse racing fan perspective you want to see the best face the best as often as possible, which we all know is rare these days so her absence was also deflating. I am sure some of the owners of the fillies in the field have mixed emotions but with a huge payday on the line I am sure most are not that upset she is back in her stall in California.

The daughter of soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer and winner of the Kentucky Oaks Rachel Alexandra, Rachel's Valentina, was made the tepid 7/2 morning line favorite. She showed a ton of raw talent as a two year old but was left in the wake of Songbird in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. In her only start this year she appeared headed for victory but came up empty late in the Ashland and was run down by longshot Weep No More. Rachel's Valentina certainly has the ability to win the Oaks and any improvement off her last race will make her very tough to beat.

Weep No More along with the previously undefeated Cathryn Sophia (third in the Ashland) are co-second choices on the morning line. The former took advantage of a pace collapse and anti-speed bias in the Ashland. She is three for three in two turn races and the only concern is will she regress (bounce) off her latest race?

Cathryn Sophia won her first four races by a combined 41 1/2 lengths. She showed the ability to set the pace and win big or sit off the pace and win big. In the Ashland she sat off the pace, looked ready to run right by the leaders but faded in the final furlong. Maybe it was just not her day or maybe her pedigree finally caught up with her. She is out of Street Boss, a multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter, so the extra half furlong of the Oaks does not seem to improve her chances.

Fourth on the morning line is Land Over Sea, who spent most of her short life chasing Songbird. The change of scenery to the New Orleans Fairgrounds was just what she needed. She crushed the field in the Fairgrounds Oaks, further flattering the form of Songbird.

The filly I like in the Kentucky Oaks is fifth choice Lewis Bay. She is the only filly in the race with a win at the distance, in fact she has two stakes wins at the distance. The Oaks will be her third start of the year so a peak effort is expected. Her connections, trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz, are among the best in the country. She also figures to offer the best value among the logical contenders in the Oaks. I was a little surprised by her 8/1 morning line and I think she will go off a little below that. If she is 5/1 or higher she is worth a bet.

Betting Strategy for the Kentucky Oaks