President's Day Pick 4

President's Day has two things associated with it here in Maryland: snow and the General George Handicap.  Fittingly both will be occuring this year as the General George is scheduled as race 9 at Laurel and the forecast is calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon.  Fortunately the snow is expected to hold off long enough to get the Laurel Park card in.

Normally I do not bet much at my home track because the takeout rates are not very player friendly and the wagering options, particularly in the winter, are not that appetizing.  President's Day is always an exception because the wagering pools will be larger than normal and the quality of racing will be much better than normal.

My wagering focus will be on the latter half of the card, which includes the three stakes races and the late Pick 4.

Race 6 - Allowance

The first leg of the late Pick 4 looks like a one horse race on paper.  The Pulse (#1) broke his maiden in his debut at Laurel and earned a speed figure that dwarfs the rest of the field.  He could regress several lengths and still win this.  There is no way this horse goes off anywhere near his 7/5 morning line.  I expect The Pulse to be 1/5 at post time.  He is my lone "A" in the opening leg but I do have one concern about him.  After his impressive debut he was gelded, which is a bit alarming considering he has exceptional breeding and looks like a future stakes winner.  Although he looks like a cinch I simply cannot stand alone with him for that reason.   I will also use Eyeplayeveryday (#5), Gin Makes Ya Sin (#6) and Seagate (#8) as "C's."

Race 7 - Wide Country Stakes

The second leg of the late Pick 4 is the first of three stakes.  The Wide Country is for three year old fillies.  The local contingent is deep but not very strong in my opinion.  I think the two New York invaders lay over this field.  Of the two I prefer Hot City Girl (#1) who has two wins and a second, which came in a New York bred stakes race.  The other New Yorker is Diannestillworks (#3) who broke her maiden in her third lifetime start before most recently running third in the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct.  I think the Ortiz brothers (Jose on the #1 and Irad on the #3) will complete the exacta and I will use both as "A's" in the Pick 4.

Race 8 - Miracle Wood Stakes

The Miracle Wood goes as race 8 and is the colt equivalent to the Wide Country.  I am going back to New York for my top selection here as well. On Tap (#8) has only raced twice with a third in his debut followed by a win versus maiden special weight company at Aqueduct.  He projects to get an uncontested lead stretching out to one mile off two sprints and with the top figure in tow looks to be ultra tough under Jose Ortiz.  My second choice exits the G3 Jerome.  Nasa ran second behind El Kabeir that day and will likely be close to even money here.  Normally this kind of class drop would land the top spot in my selections but I am not sure he can overcome the pace advantage On Tap figures to get here.  My third choice is the best of the local bunch, Golden Years.  He is 3 for 4 over this track but looks to be a cut below the top two.  I will us On Tap as my lone "A" and the other two as "B's."

Race 9 - General George Handicap

The feature of the day is the G3 General George.  Of the four races in the Pick 4 this looks like the one most likely to see the morning line favorite get beaten.  I think Bourbon Courage (#1) can fill out the trifecta or superfecta but I do not see him winning this.  I almost ended up with a Jose Ortiz sweep of the three stakes as my top selections but I think Zee Bros (#5) is better at six furlongs so he is my second choice.  I did, however make it three for three by landing on another shipper.  This time I looked out west and found Outside Nashville (#10). Sent east by Jerry Hollendorfer with his regular rider Dennis Carr Outside Nashville looks to be peaking at the right time.  This will be his third start off a layoff and at age five he has reeled off the two best races of his life.  If he improves again he should win this.  My third choice is the New York bred Big Business.  He is 3 for 4 at seven furlongs with a runner-up finish in the G1 Forego last summer at Saratoga.  I will use all three equally as "A's" in the Pick 4.

Betting Strategy

The Pick 4 has the potential to pay very little but if one or two favorites are beaten it could be a small signer.  I will be playing the 4A combination for $3, the 3A/1B for $1 and the 3A/1C for $0.50 for a total investment of $39.

R6 (A) 1 (C) 5,6,8

R7 (A) 1,3

R8 (A) 8 (B) 2,4

R9 (A) 5,6,10

In race 7 I will bet Hot City Girl (#1) to win at odds of 4/1 or higher and I will box her in an exacta with Diannestillworks (#3).  I will also use those two with On Tap (#8) in a Daily Double.

In race 8 I will bet On Tap (#8) to win at odds of 4/1 or higher and I will key him over Golden Years (#2) and Nasa (#4) in an exacta.  I will also bet On Tap with Zee Bros (#5), Big Business (#6) and Outside Nashville (#10) in a Daily Double with a little more on the combination to Outside Nashville.

In race 9 I will bet Outside Nashville (#10) to win at odds of 8/1 or higher.  I will key him over Zee Bros (#5) and Big Business (#6) in an exacta and key him over those two, Bourbon Courage (#1) and West Hills Giant (#7) in a trifecta.

Good luck and let me know who you like in the Laurel Park stakes races in the comments below.