Patience is a Virtue, Too Bad No One Told the Jockeys

Today provided two more examples of a phenomenon that is occuring so often that it is impossible to ignore.  I used to think that handicapping a race was primarily about the horses and that the jockeys were only a minor factor most of the time.  Sure a switch from a 1% rider to the leading rider or vice versa was important but this phenomenon is much more than that.

What I am talking about is jockey impatience.  A few examples of this are a jockey sending his horse to engage the front runner too early or making a big, wide, middle move in a turf route race.  The former occurred twice today in major stakes races but it seems that not many noticed it or did not think it affected the outcome of the repsective races.

Fountain of Youth

Going into the Fountain of Youth Upstart looked like a very likely winner.  In his previous race, the Holy Bull, he won impressively beating more than half of the horses entered in the Fountain of Youth.  Even with a regression, which his trainer openly commented was likely to happen, it would take a major improvement from one of his rivals to beat him.  After handicapping the race I thought there was only one scenario that could beat Upstart: a gate to wire theft.

The horse that fit that profile was Bluegrass Singer.  He had set the pace in the Holy Bull  but folded late after taking pressure down the backstretch.  In the Fountain of Youth he figured to get a little easier lead plus he was being ridden for the first time by front end mastermind Paco Lopez.

As expected Bluegrass Singer was sent to the lead and he was able to set a comfortable pace for the first quarter.  Unfortunately it all went downhill from there.  Irad Ortiz, aboard Frosted, decided to engage the lone front runner down the backstretch.  After six furlongs Bluegrass Singer was finished and Oritz looked like a genius as Frosted entered the stretch with a comfortable lead.  His impatience cost him in the final quarter mile as both Upstart and Itsaknockout ran by him.

Perhaps those two horses would have run one-two under any scenario but we will never know the answer to that.  What we do know is Irad Ortiz moved too soon costing his horse, Frosted, and Bluegrass Singer the race.

Risen Star

At first glance the Risen Star looked like it would setup for an off the pace horse.  There were four horses that preferred to be on or very close to the lead.  Looking a little deeper however revealed a potential hidden lone speed: St. Joe Bay.

St. Joe Bay was sent to the Fairgrounds from his Southern California base by trainer Peter Miller.  The west coast three year olds have no shortage of early speed this year so it seemed like a sensible move to send his horse east.  He drew the rail, which only sweetened the deal and made it even more likely that he would get the early lead.

The race started according to plan with St. Joe Bay gaining the lead through the first quarter of a mile but that all changed down the backstretch just as it did in the Fountain of Youth.  The no chance 111-1 shot Hero of Humor moved up to contest the lead for the next half mile.  This move sapped any excess energy St. Joe Bay might have had for the long stretch run.  He never stopped running but International Star, War Story and Keen Ice passed him in the final quarter mile while the 111-1 Hero of Humor plummeted to last.

It was another case of jockey impatience costing his horse and another horse any chance of winning.

What is Going On?

I have been seriously following horse racing since the late 90's and I can honestly say that what happened in the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star was a rare occurence back then.  Sure it would happen from time to time but not like it does now.  Remember when Kent Desormeaux moved too soon on Real Quiet in the Belmont?  That was all anyone talked about.  Now it is so common that it does not even get mention in most recaps of major races. 

For some reason today's jockeys have the patience of a child.  They just cannot wait to make their move and this is not limited to dirt races.  Turf races are usually worse.  In almost every turf race one or two jockeys make a big move halfway through the race and almost every time they fizzle out and get nothing.  I think they think every horse is like Secretariat and you can just move whenever you want regardless of the pace or ground loss.

This Cannot Be Ignored

Making money betting on horses is all about getting an edge on your parimutuel competition.  This situation, jockey impatience, has the potential to make you a lot of money.  I will bet that few, if any horseplayers are tracking which jockeys do this and which do not.

If you do you are already ahead of the majority of your competition.  If you do not now is the time to start paying closer attention to jockey impatience.  You might have thought that winning is all about handicapping the horses properly but now you know that you also have to handicap the men and women sitting on their backs.