Nyquist: Kentucky Derby Contender or Pretender?

I will openly admit that I thought Nyquist was just another precocious juvenile that would fizzle out as the distances of his races increased. Looking at his past performances leading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile he had the all too common speed figure pattern of that type of horse. His speed figure peaked in his debut and gradually declined with each additional furlong.

For that reason I thought he had no chance of winning or even hitting the board in the Juvenile. Boy did he prove me wrong. In a race that looked so wide open that I used the entire field in some capacity in the Pick 4 Nyquist overcame a tough outside post position and outran the other thirteen two year old colts.

In winning the 1 1/16 mile race over the Keeneland main track Nyquist not only clinched the two year old male championship he also rebounded in the speed figure department. He had matched the figure he earned in his second career start. If this had been a race for older horses this would not have surprised me because this pattern happens all the time. This was a precocious two year old that looked like he would hit a wall going 1 1/16 miles.

Fast forward to the San Vicente at Santa Anita yesterday. Nyquist was rightfully made the overwhelming favorite against a short field. He won convincingly as expected. The 7 furlong distance perfectly suited him. He also did what every horse on the Triple Crown should: earned a new lifetime top speed figure in his three year old debut.

This signaled further maturity and hints that maybe Nyquist is more than just a blazing fast one year wonder. He will have one more start before the 2016 Kentucky Derby in either the Florida Derby or Santa Anita Derby. Both races are at 1 1/8 miles and will test his stamina. He would have a much easier task staying at home in California but the best test of whether he can handle the 1 1/4 mile of the Kentucky Derby would be the Florida Derby. The field there will be much tougher and more talented.

Can Nyquist take another step forward in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby? That is the ultimate question. I now believe he is talented enough to handle the distance of either race. What I am still unsure of is his ability to negotiate the additional furlong of the Kentucky Derby. I have seen too many horses like him that dominated their rivals on sheer ability but hit a wall in the stretch at Churchill Downs. Nyquist has proved me wrong before so nothing would surprise me at this point.

If I had to bet today whether he would be wearing the garland of roses on the first Saturday of May I would bet against him. In a few weeks that opinion may change but my experience tells me that he projects to be an underlay in the Kentucky Derby. At this point my Derby horse is likely not on many others radar, in fact he was not included in the recently concluded future wager. My Derby horse is Economic Model.

He is not even trainer Chad Brown's top three year old, at least not in the minds of all the experts. I saw enough from him in two starts to put a future wager on him a few weeks ago while in Las Vegas. Even though he is still unproven and has no Kentucky Derby points I would rather hold my ticket on him at 100/1 than one on Nyquist at the 7/1 he ended at in the most recent future wager pool.