Which Breeders' Cup Race Would You Choose?

The Breeders' Cup allows horses to be pre-entered in up to two races. Each year several horses are entered in two races giving their connections a chance to determine which race gives their a horse the best chance of winning. This year was no different. Here's a look at a few of cross-entered horses and where I believe they have the best chance of winning.

Appealing Tale (Dirt Mile & Sprint)

Appealing Tale earned a birth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile via his win in the Kelso at Belmont Park. Appealing Tale was also pre-entered in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. While he is a graded stakes sprint winner he clearly loves a flat mile. He has won 5-of-9 races at one mile but only 1-of-16 at all other distances. The Sprint is loaded with early speed and he has almost no chance of gaining the lead. The Dirt Mile has the speedy Liam's Map, but is far less top heavy on front runners. For these reasons, I believe Appealing Tale belongs in the Dirt Mile.

Beholder (Distaff & Classic)

Beholder earned a free pass into both the Distaff and Classic during her 2015 campaign. She has a versatile running style, has proven herself at the distances of each race and has beaten males. She fits in either race and while she may be a shorter price in the Distaff, I believe her best chance of Breeders' Cup victory lies in the Classic. The Classic field figures to be smaller and has far less speed. In the Classic, she would likely either set the pace or sit just behind American Pharoah. The latter suffered his first setback of the year in the Travers and although he has been training great may be over the top. I think he is best up to nine furlongs and he may be vulnerable in the ten furlong Classic.

La Verdad (Filly & Mare Sprint & Sprint)

La Verdad is entered in a New York bred stakes tomorrow where she would be odds on to win. If she bypasses that race she has two choices in the Breeders' Cup: the Filly and Mare Sprint and the Sprint. Logically one would think she would be better off against other fillies and mares but the distance of the Filly and Mare Sprint (7 furlongs) is a bit further than she prefers. La Verdad has won at 7 furlongs and a mile but her best races are at 6 furlongs (where she is 11/14 lifetime). She would face more early pressure in the Sprint  but I believe her only chance of Breeders' Cup glory comes in the Sprint versus the boys.

Nemoralia (Juvenile Fillies & Juvenile Fillies Turf)

Nemoralia was based in Europe for most of her 2015 two year old season. She won 2/4 starts overseas with one each on All Weather and Turf. In her lone stateside start she finished second on sloppy track in the Frizette. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was hoping for a fast track but she ran well on the off track. He has experience in bringing juveniles with no dirt experience to the Breeders' Cup having done so successfully with Wilko in 2004. Nemoralia's pedigree points to dirt or turf so she could go either way. I trust her trainer and was impressed by her runner-up performance in New York. Combining that with her off the pace running style and speed-filled Juvenile Fillies, I think she has a better shot on the dirt.

Obviously (Mile & Turf Sprint)

The speedy seven year old Obviously raced just once this year in preparation for the Breeders' Cup. In the Woodbine Mile he set the pace before fading late. He has tried the Breeders' Cup Mile three times with simialar results. Although he is 8/14 at one mile he has proven a cut below the best turf milers three years running on a turf course that is often kind to speed (Santa Anita). The Keeneland turf course is favorable to off the pace runners in route races so chances are he would have the same result as the previous three years. If, however, he goes in the Turf Sprint he has the chance to set the pace while turning back in distance. There is sprint speed in the Turf Sprint but the 5 1/2 furlong distance better suits him, in my opnion, as he has never been worse than second in five domestic turf sprints.