Looking for Breeders' Cup Long Shots

Pre-entries for the 2014 Breeders' Cup were taken today and will be released on Wednesday.  For those with a great deal of patience Wednesday will be the first time they look at the past performances for the possible runners in this years Breeders' Cup. For those with less patience, like me, in between handicapping races for the day the last week has been spent looking at past performances for the possible Breeders' Cup runners.

At this point it's impossible to know the exact field for any of the races. Every day a big horse drops out due to illness or injury or an unexpected horse is added as a probable for one of the races. Still it doesn't hurt to assess the chances of the horses considered likely for each of the races and it's never too early to find a few long shots that might fly under the radar of most horseplayers.  Following are five long shots (expected morning line odds of 10/1 or higher) that I have marked as potential spoilers in their respective races.

Living the Life - Filly and Mare Sprint

Living the Life enters the 2014 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint off a win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes.  This may not seem all that significant but this race has proven to be a strong indicator of future success in this race.  Four of the last five winners of the Filly and Mare Sprint have won or placed in the PID Masters Stakes.  Living the Life could become the fifth in six years and if she does so will surely come at a big price.

A few questions marks surround this filly.  First is her ability to handle dirt.  She has raced 21 times but never on dirt.  Second is her ability to handle Grade 1 company.  Prior to her Masters win she had never competed in a Graded/Group race.  The positives, in addition to her PID Masters win, are her closing running style, which should suit her well in a field that is not short on speed and this being her third start off a layoff.  If she reproduces her last race or improves she could light up the tote board at box car odds.

Texas Red - Juvenile

The number one angle when handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile run in Southern California is to look at the locally based horses. This year all eyes will be on the Bob Baffert trained American Pharoah. He enters the race off consecutive Grade 1 wins in the Del Mar Futurty and Frontrunner Stakes. He will be heavily backed at the windows off those two performances but in the Juvenile he will face much more pace pressure than he did in those two wins.

In his third start he was stretched out around two turns and closed from well off the pace to win. His dirt debut was the aforementioned Frontrunner where he closed to be third.

The two positives Texas Red has are he improved his speed figure 17 points (on the TimeformUS scale) in his first route and he improved another 16 points in his dirt debut in the Frontrunner. He should get an honest pace to run into in the Juvenile and if he wins he might pay more than Action This Day did in his Juvenile upset at Santa Anita.

Big John B - Turf

Europeans have dominated the American Graded Stakes on turf this year. They swept the three big stakes at Woodbine this weekend and have won major stakes all over the country in almost every division. The Breeders' Cup Turf will likely be contested by at least four European runners:

They will all take significant money as will a handful of American's but one that will likely be forgotten is Big John B. His first 25 starts came at east coast and midwest tracks and he was a high level clamier/allowance horse.  In June he was shipped to California and transfered to the Phil D'Amato barn. He won a starter allowance then a non-winners of two allowance for his new trainer.  In his third start out west he was entered in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap. He crushed the field by 5 1/4 lengths.  In his most recent race he closed late to be third in the John Henry Turf Championship.

Big John B is certainly not in the same class as the four Europeans but he does have one big positive that makes him worth considering.  He is 3/3 in races at 11-12 furlongs.  The Breeders' Cup Turf is 12 furlongs (1 1/2 miles) so he should run to his maximum potential.  Will that be good enough?  That's debatable but at odds of 30/1 or higher it might be worth paying to find out.

Work All Week - Sprint

Can a Grade 3 winner step up and win the toughest sprint race in America? Cajun Beat answered that question when he won the Breeders' Cup Sprint in 2005. Prior to that win the highlight of his career was a win in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Sprint. This year Work All Week will try to replicate Cajun Beat's feat by winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint with only a single Grade 3 win to his name.

Work All Week prepped for the Breeders' Cup with a win in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland. To date that is the highlight of his 14 race career but don't let this fool you. He is 9/9 on dirt and 7/7 at 6 furlongs on dirt. His speed figures match up well with the rest of the field and his versatility to set the pace or track the pace should boost his chances. He might not pay $48 like Cajun Beat but he will surely be in the 10/1 to 15/1 range.

All the talk this year about the Breeders' Cup Classic has focused on three year olds.  Bayern, California Chrome, Shared Belief and Tonalist are the top four three year olds in the country heading into the Breeders' Cup.  Between them they have won eight Grade 1 races this year including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Awesome Again Stakes.

Lost in the shuffle is Candy Boy. Since winning the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis in February he has lost five straight races. At first glance he looks to be a cut below the top four mentioned above and a few of the older horses that are likely for the Classic. Digging a little deeper, however, you see a horse that has a legitimate excuse in each of those five losses.