Kentucky Downs Play of the Day for Opening Day 2016

Kentucky Downs kicks off its 2016 meet with a ten race card featuring four stakes races, which are linked in the late Pick Four. Every wagering option on the card features player-friendly takeout rates so players have ample opportunity to make some money.

Overall the opening day card is, as expected, deep and competitive. All but one race drew double digit entries so if you are up for a real handicapping challenge this card is for you. After going through all ten races I found a few races that I was able to develop a strong opinion on and one in particular that I am not only confident in but also should provide good value if my opinion is correct.

Race 6 - Allowance - 6 1/2 furlongs - 5:15 ET post time

The sixth race on the card is the start of the Pick Five with an ultra low 14% takeout rate. Of the five races in the sequence it looks like the most likely to produce an upset. There is a good bit of early speed entered and I expect the winner to come from off the pace. It should also be noted that this distance was least friendly to speed the last three meets, which further strengthens my approach to the race.

The morning line favorite, #11 Shadow Rock, hails from the Mike Maker barn and has 2015 meet leading rider Florent Geroux aboard. He certainly can win this but is no lock at what figures to be underlaid odds. On the positive side he drew outside, which is beneficial in sprints at Kentucky Downs and he has an off the pace running style, which suits the projected pace. The major negative is he is 0/2 at Kentucky Downs. While I would certainly include Shadow Rock in the Pick Five if you are playing I am against him in the wagering pool I am most interested in.

My top choice and best bet of the day draws one post inside Shadow Rock. Galton (#10) enters this sprint off a series of route races in which he showed decent early speed. These races should provide Galton with the stamina needed to finish strong in the uphill stretch. Additionally Galton should sit midpack behind the speed and get first run on Shadow Rock and the rest of the closers. His trainer, Tom Amoss is 32% with the route to sprint move the last two years and Galton has an in the money finish over the track from a few meets back.

Galton is 10/1 on the morning line but I fully expect him to come down from that number. He has more positive angles than any other horse in the race and I think fair odds on him winning this race are 6/1. At those odds or higher he is worth a win bet.

While I think the vertical exotics in race six are worth playing the exotic pool I am most interested in is the Daily Double. As you know if you have read my posts on here or on my personal horse racing blog I am a huge fan of the Daily Double. It is the often overlooked horizontal exotic that more often than not produces better than expected returns. For example the average Daily Double the last three meets at Kentucky Downs has paid over $130 and last year the average was more than $214. The median return the last three meets was $65.80 and the median last year was $102.20. Needless to say it only takes a few of those at $5 or $10 increments to put you in the black for the meet.

Play of the Day

My play of the day on opening day of the 2016 Kentucky Downs meet is the Daily Double linking race 6 and 7. As outlined above I really like Galton in the sixth. The seventh is the first of four consecutive stakes and while the top three choices on the morning line look very capable of winning I prefer #2 Cash Control. She is 7:3-2-1 on the turf and has two stakes wins on her resume this year, one of which was the G3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs. I also give a lesser chance to #1 She's Not Here and #3 Susie Bee and will weight my opinion accordingly.

Race 6 $15 Daily Double 10 / 2

Race 6 $5 Daily Double 10 / 1,3

That's a $25 investment that if it connects should return between $200 and $500 depending on which horse wins the second leg and how much money Galton takes in the first.

Good luck on opening day at Kentucky Downs and if you are looking for additional information on the meet check out my recent post on what to expect at the meet and don't forget to head over to Derby Wars as they are hosting handicapping contests featuring Kentucky Downs today and each of the five days of the 2016 meet.