Kentucky Derby 2016: Danzing Candy is the X-Factor

The Kentucky Derby is one-of-a-kind because it is the only race in North America with a field of more than 14 horses. It is also the first time any of its entrants will run at the distance. It will be run in front of the largest crowd most of the horses will ever see as well. It has all the ingredients to make it the most unpredictable and chaotic race of the year. In fact up until the last three years it was a safe bet to toss the post time favorite then came along the new qualifying point system.

This new system has essentially guaranteed one thing: no more pure sprinters in the starting gate. Before the current system was in place horses could earn their way in via graded stakes earnings in sprint races. Remember Trinniberg a few years ago? He was a monster in one turn races but not going long and especially not at a classic distance. He cost Bodemeister the Kentucky Derby. Had the points system been in place that year Bodemeister very likely would have won the Kentucky Derby and who knows what would have happened in the Preakness and Belmont.

Since the inception of the points system the betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby each time. Orb won in 2013, California Chrome in 2014 and of course American Pharoah won last year en route to winning the Triple Crown. This year Nyquist figures to be a solid post time favorite, although not as strong as American Pharoah was last year. Nyquist likes to be on or near the pace so the absence of any no chance sprinters should help him get the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby. Since he is the most talented horse of the bunch and because he has shown the ability to rate off the pace I doubt he will be sent hard early for the lead. That role should fall to the horse I believe will have the greatest impact on the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Looking at the current projected field for the Kentucky Derby there is only one horse that has shown he must be on the lead to run his best race: Danzing Candy. Danzing Candy burst onto the Triple Crown trail in the San Felipe. He set a fast but uncontested pace and kept going all the way to the wire. He left fellow Kentucky Derby contenders Exaggerator and Mor Spirit in his dust. He was the first three year old that looked like he might be able to unseat Nyquist. Then came the Santa Anita Derby over a sloppy track.

The sloppy track was not the only variable that cost Danzing Candy the race. He also had to work to secure the lead early and in doing so he ran off. Mike Smith was unable to rein him in down the backstretch and not surprisingly he had nothing left in the final fulrongs of the race. In two races we learned a lot about this lightly raced horse.

First he has the raw talent to win graded stakes versus his own generation. He can run fast early, if the conditions are right, and finish strong. Second he is still immature. When things don't go his way he doesn't relax and can run off. One of two scenarios will occur in the Kentucky Derby. Either he will break clean and secure the lead or he will have to work for it either because of a slow break or because of pressure from another horse and set a fast pace.

Which it will be is the million dollar question for both Danzing Candy's connections and the wagering public. Danzing Candy may not be the most likely winner. He may not be the most talented horse in the field but he will impact the race more than any of the other 19 horses. He has an expert pilot in the saddle, the ability to win the Kentucky Derby but he must relax early if he is to cross the finish line first. The post position draw will affect him more than most in my opinion. Ideally he would be drawn in the middle of the starting gate and outside the other two horses with the most early speed: Nyquist and Outwork.