Handling the Foreign Invasion
A few days ago it looked like the foreign contingency would be lighter than usual at the Breeders' Cup. After pre-entries were released today that concern was relieved when more than three dozen horses were pre-entered. Most of the foreign invaders will be targeting turf races, which is the norm, but a few are entered in the main track races.
Evaluating these horses can prove to be a little difficult because their past performances have much less information than North American horses and because you probably haven't seen too many of them race. From my experience the best way to evaluate foreign horses is to gather as much information about them as possible using every avenue. Following are my five tips for gathering that information and evaluating each horse properly.
1. Assume Foreign Horses are 1-2 Grades Superior on Turf
While all major races are graded in terms of level of competition (Graded in North America and Group in the rest of the world) not all races are equal. For any Group races run in Dubai, England, France, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong and Ireland it is safe to assume that a Group 1 turf race is of a higher quality than a Grade 1 turf race. A Group 2 turf race is equal to a Grade 1 turf race, a Group 3 turf race is equal to a Grade 2 turf race and so on. For other foreign countries the races are probably equivalent to or slightly below their North American counterparts.
One need only look back at the last couple of months to see that foreign turf horses are superior to North American turf horses at the highest levels of the sport. Main Sequence has won three Grade 1 races since shipping over from Europe. Europeans swept the three graded stakes at Woodbine last weekend and two of the three on Woodbine Mile day. Those races and many others were won by foreign horses that couldn't get the job done in their home countries but when shipped to North America they suddenly became Grade 1 winners.
2. Determine Trainer Intent
Some of the foreign horses that will run in the Breeders' Cup have been pointed to their respective race for several weeks or several months. Others have been sent to the Breeders' Cup as an afterthought for various reasons. They may have passed a race in their home country due to the track condition (usually when the turf is very soft), they may have missed their primary target because of an illness or minor injury or they may have run in their targeted race and afterwards their connections decided to take a shot in the Breeders' Cup.
Sometimes it's easy to determine which category a horse falls into such as when there is an interview with the owner or trainer and they answer the question or if the horse ran in a major race in their home country such as the Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe or British Champion Stakes (or another race on those cards).
Other times it will take further research on your part or you might have to guess whether the trainer was targeting the Breeders' Cup. The former can sometimes be determined by reading the North American horse racing press but many times you can find better information by going to the real source, which leads to tip number three.
3. Check Foreign Horse Racing Websites
There are several places I check whenever I encounter a foreign horse in a big stakes race. The first place to check is the Racing Post, which is the equivalent to the Daily Racing Form in the United Kingdom. There you can find news about many of the top horses as well as have access to summary lifetime past performances and race results. If you are willing to pay a few pounds you can get additional information such as race replays.
The Sporting Life is another UK horse racing site that has news on top horses as well as detailed race results with comments on each runner. As is the case with the Racing Post you can also get access to race replays for a fee.
A few others worth checking out periodically over the next week are:
4. Watch Replays for Foreign Contenders
As mentioned above you can pay to watch many replays of the major races or you can do a little digging and find them for free at various websites. My first stop is always YouTube. Enter the race name and year or the race name and the winner in the search box and there's a pretty good chance you will find most of the races you are looking for or you can look for horse racing channels such as:
If you are looking for races from specific events such as the Qipco British Champions Series you can go straight to their website and find replays of all the races from that day as well as those that were part of the series leading up to the main event.
5. Get the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup Package
I've been using TimeformUS past performances for over a year now and after a few months of apprehension I realized they are far and away the best past performances on the market. With their past performances you get much more detailed comments for most foreign races as well as Timeform ratings for those races. In their Breeders' Cup package you'll get lifetime past performances for all the pre-entered horses as well as additional commentary from Jamie Lynch, Timeform's global chief correspondent. You can get that package by itself or if you have a monthly unlimited plan its included. If you have never tried TimeformUS past performances now is the perfect time. Finding just one little nugget of information that most others missed could be the key to a four or five figure score on Breeders' Cup weekend.