Handicapping the 2016 Kentucky Derby Undercard

Kentucky Derby 2016 is the main event but there are six other stakes races on the undercard, many of which provide great betting opportunities. Let's take a look at them in order.

Distaff Mile

The first stakes is a mile on the turf for fillies and mares. It is the least appealing of the stakes races and likely the reason for it's position outside the Pick 6 and Pick 5. The reason it is unappealing is Tepin.

Tepin is the reigning Champion Turf Female and is unbeaten this year. She faces a modest group in the Distaff Mile and looks like the most likely winner in all the stakes races. I would pass this race but for multi-race wagers Tepin is a single.

Churchill Downs Stakes

Kicking off the all stakes Pick 6 is the Churchill Downs stakes at 7 furlongs on the main track. It brings together an interesting blend of sprinters from all parts of the country. Pace will be the key as it usually is in sprint races.

Limousine Liberal won impressively in an allowance at Keeneland in his first start of the year. It was impressive because he won gate to wire on a day that strongly favored off the pace runners. If he moves forward as expected he could easily wire the field.

Calculator will be at the opposite end of the field early but has proven to be a useful sprinter. He is rounding into form and enters off a runner-up effort in the G1 Carter at Aqueduct.

Speightster is the wild card in the field. Unbeaten in three starts he hasn't been seen since the Dwyer last July. This is a tall task coming off such a long layoff but he has been training well and Bill Mott is a master at bringing horse back from extended time off.

These three look like the most likely winners and I prefer them in the order listed.

Humana Distaff

The female version of the Churchill Downs stakes has a big field but looks top heavy on talent. For me there are two that tower over the field: Taris and Wavell Avenue.

Taris is cutting back off a pair of two turn races at Santa Anita and is proven to be top class in one turn stakes. She should get a perfect stalking trip and with the added stamina from the route races should be strong in the lane.

Wavell Avenue won the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Keeneland and enters the Humana Distaff off a third place finish in the Madison. The race should set up well for her as Stonetastic and Super Saks should ensure a fast, contested pace early.

Beyond those two the only other filly that looks like a win contender is Birdatthewire. She is a Grade 1 winner at the distance and will also be coming from well off the pace.

I prefer Wavell Avenue best and would use her and Taris as keys in multi-race wagers. I would also include Birdatthewire as a back-up.

American Turf

A baker's dozen of three year old colts will fight it out for the $300,000 purse of the American Turf. It is one of the more interesting races on the card as more than half the field looks capable of winning.

Airoforce returns to his preferred surface after a failed bid on the Triple Crown trail. He won the Bourbon last fall prior to losing a photo in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He should get a great trip on the rail a few lengths behind the pace setters.

Beach Patrol has won twice since moving out west to the Phil D'Amato barn. His front runner style is flattered by Flavien Prat, who does very well on the front end. He is versatile, however as he has also won from off the pace. He should be positioned close to the pace, if not on the lead early and figures to be right there at the wire.

Camelot Kitten looks slow on paper but that is likely due to the wet turf courses he has encountered in his last three races. He sports the world class combo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz and will likely be double digit odds. This is a step up in class off his last race but that was likely a prep for this.

I prefer these three most but would also use Converge, Shakhimat, American Patriot, Dressed in Hermes, Surgical Strike and Azar as back-ups. This is a wide open race and for me the most likely to produce a price in the late day multi-race wagers.

Pat Day Mile

Formerly the Derby Trial this race has been moved from the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby to the Derby undercard. This is another deep, competitive field on par with the American Turf.

Imperial Hint is two for two and should be on the lead early. He steps up in class but his speed will be dangerous in a field lacking front runners. He stretches out to a mile for the first time and if he can relax early will be dangerous at a big price, although likely not as big as his morning line.

Cocked and Loaded crushed the Iroquois over this track in the fall last year. He had a useful prep in the Bay Shore and should move forward off that race.

American Freedom has one race under his belt and he was very impressive beating maidens at Santa Anita. He has trained well since and picks up the services of Javier Castellano. This will be a stiff test but he has a ton of upside.

These three are my keys to the race but I would also include: Ralis, Sharp Azteca and Star Hill as back-ups.

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic

The penultimate race on the card brings together yet another deep, competitive group. The biggest question you have to answer is will Big Blue Kitten return for his eight year old campaign the same way he left his seven year old campaign. If he is does he will win the Turf Classic but that is a big if.

Chocolate Ride is 4/7 at the distance but might be a cut below Grade 1 company. If he gets the lead and is left alone he will be very dangerous.

Divisidero has moved forward in his first two starts as a four year old. He needs a solid pace to run into and may get that here. The only negative is jockey Edgar Prado has been riding below par since the beginning of the year.

Tourist is reunited with Florent Geroux, who jumps off Chocolate Ride. The two combined to take the More Than Ready Mile at Kentucky Downs last year. He should be forwardly placed early and will get the jump on the off the pace runners in the field.

These four will be my keys and I prefer Tourist the best. I would also include: Bolo, Reporting Star and Midnight Star as back-ups. I am against Slumber, a horse that will take a lot of money but has a propensity for coming up short.

Final Thoughts

The stakes races on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby provide many great betting opportunities. It will take a large bankroll to play the Pick 5 or Pick 6. For those on a limited budget I recommend playing the individual races you like best and Daily Doubles. Find one or two races to crush and you can turn a tough card into a profitable day.

If you are interested you can find my Kentucky Derby analysis here.