First Look at the 2016 Preakness Stakes

Nyquist validated his status as the best three year old colt with an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby. Tracking a fast pace he put away Gun Runner and held off the late closing Exaggerator. He proved he is capable of tracking a fast pace and finishing strongly at a Classic distance.

Nyquist arrived at Pimlico for the second jewel of the Triple Crown and no matter who else shows up he will be installed as an odds on favorite to continue his unbeaten streak. He is clearly deserving of the role of the betting favorite and the question is can any scenario derail his quest to move on to Belmont for his bid to complete the Triple Crown?

Scenario 1: Faster Early Pace

The pace of the Kentucky Derby was much faster than I thought it would be. Danzing Candy did not break well and was forced to work hard to gain the lead from the far outside post. Danzing Candy will not be in the Preakness field but a few new shooters will.

Laoban is a need-the-lead horse just like Danzing Candy. He is still a maiden and has developed into the typical speed and fade type. He will ensure a swift early pace in the Preakness but it is highly unlikely he will be around at the end.

Uncle Lino chased Danzing Candy on the west coast this winter so he is also capable of setting a quick early pace. He is more accomplished than Laoban but seems a cut below the best of his generation.

Awesome Speed is another horse that can fuel the fire of the early pace. He is a multiple stakes winner but again does not seem to be a Grade 1 caliber horse at this point in his career.

These three will guarantee that Nyquist will not get an American Pharoah type trip in the Preakness. Of course Nyquist has proven he does not need the lead but how many hard races can he run in succession before he cracks? Perhaps he will never crack but this will be the third straight race that he will need to set/track a contested early pace through fast fractions.

Scenario 2: Exaggerator Gets a Better Trip

Exaggerator has finished behind Nyquist every time he has faced him. In the San Vicente, he was close to the pace and had nothing left in the stretch. In the Kentucky Derby he was well off the pace, but could not make up enough ground to catch Nyquist. Clearly he is best from off the pace as evidenced by his Santa Anita Derby score and Kentucky Derby runner-up finish.

In the Preakness, the pace will suit his late running style and there will be far fewer horses to pass in his pursuit of Nyquist. He was full of run in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby, so the distance will be no problem for him and if the skies open and the track is wet he will definitely handle it.

Of course he might just be second best to the champ. It might not matter how great a trip he gets he might just have to settle for second again.

Scenario 3: Total Pace Collapse

With the pace of the Preakness expected to be swift as mentioned in the first scenario it should give the off the pace types a better chance of catching Nyquist. Exaggerator of course would be a beneficiary but the horse that would benefit most is Suddenbreakingnews.

Suddenbreakingnews just missed the Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby after overcoming a less than ideal trip from the back of the field. He has now closed well in each of his last four races but needs a little racing luck to get to the wire first. If the pace of the Preakness is breakneck and the field spreads out he might be able to work out a better trip. He is the best finisher in the field and if he is in striking distance turning into the stretch watch out.

Scenario 4: A New Shooter Spoils the Party

Horses today are not accustomed to running back off only two weeks rest. Over the last two decades there has been a gradual shift to more time off between major races for the top horses. That is why until last year there was a widespread belief that we would never see another Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah thankfully put that idea to bed.

In the Preakness Nyquist will be returning off only two weeks rest in a race, that although he won comfortably, was certainly no easy task. He ran hard the whole way and Exaggerator was closing in on him late. The Preakness field will consist of a half dozen or so new shooters that have been given ample time to recover from their latest efforts.

Among the most dangerous are Lexington winner Collected, who is trained by Bob Baffert, Stradivari, who is trained by Todd Pletcher and who blew away an allowance field at Keeneland and Cherry Wine, who was third in the Blue Grass and who should also benefit from the hot early pace that is expected. If the two week turnaround knocks out Nyquist one of these three could be wearing the garland of Black Eyed Susan's.

Scenario 5: Nyquist Rolls Again

The most likely outcome based on current form and recent history suggests Nyquist will route the field in Baltimore. Odds on favorites do very well in the Preakness. Additionally three of the last four Kentucky Derby winners repeated in the Preakness and seven of the last fourteen won both.

The Preakness typically produces the most logical results of the three Triple Crown races. It is the shortest of the three races so distance limitations do not affect the outcome and it usually has a reasonably sized field.

Nyquist will be 2/5 or 3/5 in the Preakness and those are probably a true estimate of what chance he has of winning. Horse races, as we all know, are not easily predictable and a million things can go wrong but looking at all the information we have now points to another Nyquist win.

This will surely please the people at NYRA as the potential for a Triple Crown winner always boosts the attendance and wagering handle on the Belmont Stakes card. It will also be positive for the horse racing industry itself as it will increase exposure to mainstream sports fans and the mainstream sports media.

There is still a week until we will know who will challenge Nyquist in the Preakness and although anything can happen all signs point to a third consecutive opportunity at a Triple Crown. The once elusive feat that many thought would never be accomplished again may happen in consecutive years.