Don't Cast That Eclipse Ballot Just Yet
In the minds of many the racing year is over and all year end honors have been decided. Just last week Andy Beyer wrote a piece on why Bayern deserves to be Horse of the Year instead of turf star Main Sequence and fellow three year old and dual classic winner California Chrome. I agree that California Chrome should not be in the conversation because Bayern beat him in two out of three meetings this year. Main Sequence is debatable because he won four straight Grade 1 stakes including the Breeders' Cup Turf in which he beat Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-up and subsequent Hong Kong Vase winner Flintshire.
What bothers me about Mr. Beyer's article is the justification he uses for supporting Bayern as Horse of the Year while ignoring the fact that the same justification may apply to another three year old in a few days. The main reason for handing Bayern Horse of the Year honors according to Mr. Beyer is that he won stakes races from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles on dirt. I agree that it is a rare occurrence to have a modern day horse accomplish this at the highest level of the sport in a single year.
What I don't understand is why Mr. Beyer or any other Eclipse award voters are casting their ballots before the end of the year when a potential Horse of the Year is racing the day after Christmas. Shared Belief is entered in the Grade 1 Malibu on Santa Anita's opening day card. The Malibu is a 7 furlong Grade 1 stakes race. If Shared Belief wins the Malibu would he not be more qualified to be Horse of the Year and Champion Three Year Old than Bayern? Let's review the details.
Shared Belief started the year with a win in an allowance race. He next won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby against three year olds. He followed that win with back to back wins versus older horses in the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 Pacific Classic and the G1 Awesome Again and in each race overcame a troubled trip. As we all know he was eliminated in the Breeders' Cup Classic at the start and was further hindered shortly thereafter. If he wins the Malibu his year will consist of:
Grade 1 win at 7 furlongs
Grade 1 win at 1 1/8 miles
Grade 2 win at 1 1/8 miles
Grade 1 win at 1 1/4 miles
Shared Belief will have five wins from six starts and will have won Grade 1 races from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles and will have beaten older horses twice in Grade 1 competition.
Bayern started the year with a maiden win and allowance win. He then ran third in the G1 Arkansas Derby, second in the G3 Derby Trial and ninth in the G1 Preakness. He got back to the winner's circle in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. Next out he finished tenth in the Grade 1 Travers then he won the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic. To recap:
Grade 2 win at 7 furlongs
Grade 1 win at 1 1/8 miles
Grade 2 win at 1 1/8 miles
Grade 1 win at 1 1/4 miles
Bayern has six wins from ten starts and beat older horses only once in the Breeders' Cup Classic. His three route stakes wins were accomplished under ideal circumstances in which he was allowed to set an uncontested pace on speed favoring surfaces. When he was challenged early in the Travers he folded like a tent.
If Shared Belief wins the Malibu his resume will be the better of the two, in my opinion. He will have three Grade 1 wins versus two for Bayern. He will have two Grade 1 wins versus older horses versus one for Bayern. He will have won his races purely on merit and not based on circumstance.
If you have an Eclipse vote don't seal the envelope just yet. What's a few more days going to matter? For one horse and his connections it will be the chance for redemption and a chance to prove that he is the best horse in the country.