DeFrancis Dash: Taking the Contrarian Approach

What's the name of the game in main track sprint races in America? The answer of course is speed. Dirt surfaces have historically favored front runners and pace pressers, especially in sprints. The shorter the race, the more advantage a horse with early speed has over the rest of the field.

Once in a while you'll find a field that has only one front runner, and assuming the horse matches up well with the rest of the field on class, form and speed figures, they are a great bet. When the opposite occurs, and there are three or four or more front runners, the race should set up for a pace presser or a closer.

If all races played out like they were supposed to on paper, this game wouldn't be very exciting and no one would make any money betting, because favorites would win at a much higher rate. Sometimes, however, a race looks very straightforward on paper but doesn't play out that way, and those that see the real picture, that is hidden from the general public, are greatly rewarded. This is how I feel about the DeFrancis Dash at Laurel Park.

At first glance, the race looks ripe for a fast early pace that sets up for off the pace runners. Here's a brief look at each horse:

Happy My Way has six wins in his career. Four have been won gate to wire and the other two he was only 1/2 length behind after the first quarter.

Heaven's Runaway has six wins in his career. Two have been won gate to wire and the other two he was never more than three lengths behind the leader.

Favorite Tale has five wins in his career. Two were won gate to wire and in the other three he was no more than one length behind the leader at any point.

Zee Bros has three wins in his career and all three were won gate to wire.

Dads Caps has four wins in his career. Three of the four were won gate to wire and the fourth he was only one length behind early.

Bern Identity has six wins in his career. Three were won gate to wire, one he was only one length behind the leader and in the other two he was never more than three lengths behind.

La Verdad has ten wins in her career. Eight were won gate to wire, one she was only a half length behind early and the other she led early but was passed and three lengths behind after a half mile before retaking the lead.

Ben's Cat is likely to scratch although he has shown versatility in his twenty seven wins by winning on the lead, pressing the pace and well off the pace.

Mico Margarita has six wins in his career. Only one was won gate to wire and in his last three wins he was, on average, more than five lengths behind after the opening quarter.

Smash and Grab has ten wins in his career. Eight were won gate to wire and the other two he was only half a length behind the leader.

From a pace perspective this race looks very straightforward. Mico Margarita is the most likely winner and if Ben's Cat stays in he is the second most likely winner. With the other eight horses having run best when on the lead there appears to be no reason to back any of them. Based on this and that he is exiting the Breeders' Cup Sprint I expect Mico Margarita to be the post time favorite or at the very least well below his 6/1 morning line. That also means that some or many of the front runners will be overlays.

TimeformUS projects a fast pace with Happy My Way on the lead. I usually agree with their pace projection but in this race I disagree. Barring a poor start I expect La Verdad to set the pace and I expect her to be clear by a length or two. She is eight for ten at six furlongs and fits on class, form and speed figures. If she gets the trip I expect she will be very tough to beat. She is 12/1 on the morning line and I think she might drift up because she is a filly versus the boys, she has been mostly beating up on New York bred fillies and mares and because her front running style appears to be compromised.

La Verdad tends to set fast early paces and for that reason most of the other front runners will be severely compromised. Mico Margarita is the logical horse to use underneath but I'll also include Happy My Way, Dads Caps and Bern Identity.