2014 Breeders' Cup Classic Conundrum: What Will Moreno Do?

Quite often the outcome of a race is determined by a horse that really had no business being in the race.  The horse is either not suited to the distance or surface or is running well above its proven class level.  One race where this occurs at a higher frequency than any other is the Kentucky Derby.

It seems that every other year a horse that clearly wants no part of 10 furlongs is entered and ensures a wickedly fast early pace.  This compromises the chances of the legitimate front runners and pace pressers and often results in a chaotic finish.  Remember the 2012 Kentucky Derby?

2012 Kentucky Derby - Bodemeister vs. Trinniberg

In 2012 Bodemeister looked like a potential Triple Crown winner.  He entered the Kentucky Derby off a dazzling front running win in the Arkansas Derby.  With Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in his corner it seemed that nothing could stop him from winning the "Run for the Roses."

Enter star sprinter Trinniberg, a three year old without equal up to 7 furlongs but unproven going two turns.  As expected Bodemeister went to the front and right on his tail early was Trinniberg.  The internal fractions were blistering:

22.32 for the first quarter

45.39 for the first half

1:09.80 for the first three quarters

Trinniberg was a head behind the first quarter and a length behind the next two.  As expected he stopped badly after a mile but Bodemeister kept going.  With a furlong to go Bodemeister was up by 3 lengths and only one horse was making up any ground.  I'll Have Another wore down Bodemeister and won by 1 1/2 lengths.

After the race it was widely agreed that the best horse finished second and had it not been for a sprinter, who only qualified because of graded stakes earnings in sprint races, we would have been looking at a very likely Triple Crown winner.  Fortunately the Kentucky Derby has remedied this problem by switching to a points based qualifying system, which eliminates the possibility of another Trinniberg impacting the results of the race.

2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup - Big Cazanova vs. Moreno

Flash forward to the 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup and you will find another example of a horse that probably doesn't belong impacting the outcome of the race.  Big Cazanova was shipped into New York from California off a win in allowance company.  He didn't look like he belonged in a Grade 1 race, let alone one 3,000 miles away from his home base.

Unlike Trinniberg, Big Cazanova, was a route horse but his presence completely changed the pace dynamics.  Prior to his being entered it was assumed that Moreno would go to the lead and if he was good enough he would take the field gate to wire like he did in the Whitney. After learning of the new shooter Eric Guillot, trainer of Moreno, openly stated that his horse would be rated because he knew engaging in a pace duel would ruin his horses chances.

Moreno was taken off the pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he verified what many believed.  He couldn't reproduce his best effort and he faded to fourth (although he was subsequently disqualified to last for causing Wicked Strong to nearly fall).

2014 Breeders' Cup Classic - Bayern vs. Moreno

In just under a week Eric Guillot will be faced with the same conundrum.  Does instruct his jockey to send Moreno to the lead and risk a suicidal pace duel or does he tell him to rate the horse and hope the Jockey Club Gold Cup was an aberration?

Ironically Big Cazanova is currently sitting on the also eligible list and needs only one defection to get into the Breeders' Cup Classic.  While he would prove to be thorn in the side of Moreno it's Bayern that is the real problem.

Bayern, like Moreno, does his best running on the front end.  He has proven that he can beat Grade 1 company if he is allowed to set the pace comfortably.  He won the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby under that scenario but he faltered in the Travers when pressured.

So what will Moreno do?  My guess is he is sent hard to the front and takes it to Bayern early.  If Bayern lets him go he has a shot of stealing the race.  If Bayern engages him neither is likely to be around in the final furlong.

There are also two other wild cards that could further complicate this equation.  First if Big Cazanova draws in he will definitely be sent to the lead, which will compromise both Bayern and Moreno.  Second it's also not crazy to assume that California Chrome may be much closer to the pace than he was in the Pennsylvania Derby.

What all this amounts to is a high probability of a pace collapse setting it up for one of the off the pace horses.  Perhaps my crazy long shot, Candy Boy, won't look so crazy in the winner's circle after all?  Of course this is horse racing we are talking about here and as we all know the way the race looks on paper isn't the way it plays out in real life.  A week from now we might wake up scratching our heads after watching Bayern or Moreno or some other horse steal the biggest race of the year.