Breeders' Cup Friday: I am the Whittler
The ten race card at Santa Anita for Breeders' Cup Friday offers a plethora of wagering opportunities. My strength is picking winners rather than picking horses to finish second, third and fourth, which is why I focus on win bets and multi-race bets.
With large fields like you will find on the Breeders' Cup Friday card the most important thing is to find a few races where you can narrow the contenders down to one or two horses. They could be favorites, long shots or both.
The two big targets tomorrow for multi-race players like myself are the Pick 5 (on races 1 through 5) and the all Breeders' Cup Pick 4 (races 6 through 9). After handicapping the entire card I was pleased that I was able to find two races in the Pick 5 sequence and one in the Pick 4 sequence that I could narrow down to two horses, making playing both feasible.
Race 2 - Las Vegas Marathon (G2)
Formerly run as the Breeders' Cup Marathon this race will be run at the same 1 3/4 mile distance, which is typically the stumbling point for most of the field. With speed a premium on the main track the easy solution would be to just use the two speeds: Big Cazanova and Mystery Train.
In my opinion the only way one of these two wins is if the other scratches, stumbles out of the gate or suddenly changes their running style to off the pace. The most likely scenario is these two go head and head at a rapid clip and neither is around late. For that reason I went with Sky Kingdom (#7) who should be sitting in third or fourth behind the two likely pace setters. I don't trust him enough to single him so I also will include Cary Street (#9) who won the Greenwood Cup (G3) two back and has proven the distance will not be an issue.
Race 3 - Golden State Juvenile Fillies
A field of nine Cal-bred two year old fillies is signed on for this 7 furlong event. Morning line favorite My Fiona (#4) looks tough but my concern is she ran much better on polytrack at Del Mar than dirt at Santa Anita. She is one of two I will use in here but because of the lesser form on dirt I can't stand alone with her.
I will also use likely pace setter Joylicious (#6) who should benefit greatly from the speed favoring surface. She broke her maiden in her second lifetime start at Golden Gate over Tapeta but is bred equally well if not better for dirt. She has three bullet works since that maiden-breaking score so she should fire her best shot.
Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)
A field of fourteen will go to post in the Juvenile Turf, but I only fancy two of them. The key to this race has been to focus on European imports as they have won five of seven runnings of this race and all four at Santa Anita.
The two I will be using are Commemorative (#4) and War Envoy (#7). The former most recently won the Group 3 Betfred Goals Galore Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. He is two for three lifetime and looks to have the more upside than most in this race. The latter exits a fifth place finish in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere-Grand Criterium (G1). He has placed three times in Group 2/3 company and is trained by two time winner of this race Aidan O'Brien.
Spreading Around These Horses
Narrowing down those three races will allow me to spread in the other legs of the Pick 5 and Pick 4. The goal is to catch a price or two in those other races with the first leg of the Pick 5 looking fairly wide open and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf looking especially wide open.
You might be thinking wait a minute he didn't mention the obvious single on the card: Goldencents. You're right because I don't think he is a cinch to win the Dirt Mile like most do. With the track favoring speed and more legit speed signed on this year, I don't believe he will be on an easy lead like he was last year. I will use him but I'm spreading there because beating him will almost guarantee a huge Pick 4 payout.