Belmont Stakes 2016: Betting the Card

The field for the 2016 Belmont Stakes has been drawn and a baker's dozen of three year old's will tackle the mile and one half "Test of a Champion." The Belmont Stakes itself will be a great betting race as many new shooters are taking aim in the final Triple Crown race and outside of Exaggerator there are no superstars (yet). If he fails to run his best chaos may ensue and even if he does win there is a good possibility that a longshot or two will fill out the vertical exotics.

Outside of the Belmont Stakes, there will be many other great individual betting races but for the purposes of this discussion let's take a look at some of the multi-race wagering opportunities to determine what to expect. Specifically I will be looking at the Pick 5, the Pick 6 and the Pick 4 that ends in the Belmont Stakes.

Before we begin let's discuss who should and who should not be betting into these pools. If you are playing with under $100 total for the day you should not be betting into any of these pools. If you have between $100 and $200 the Pick 4 is an option, between $200 and $500 both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 are options and more than $1,000 all three are options. If you are in the first category or would like to play one or more of these wagers and do not have the proper bankroll I recommend pooling your money with a few friends. That will give you the proper coverage while not completely exposing your bankroll.

With that out of the way let's take a look at each of these multi-race wagering options in the order they will appear on the card.

Pick 5

The Pick 5 has only been offered the last two years so there is far less history to go on. In those two years however two things have occurred. First each year the pool has exceeded $1 million. Second it has returned a tremendous amount.

In 2014 the Pick 5 returned $46,024 for each $2 wagered. The sequence was deep in almost every leg with over 66,000 combinations. In 2015 the fields were much shorter, in fact the first race was only three deep, but it still paid $45,396 for each $2 wagered despite only 7,560 combinations.

The Pick 5 typically consists of a few allowance races and ends with a stakes or two. Perhaps these races are more volatile than the string of Grade 1's that will follow? It also is early in the card so maybe there is less efficiency than the all-stakes Pick 6 and Pick 4? In any case the 2016 Pick 5 pool is guaranteed at $500,000 but should easily exceed $1 million as it has been the most popular wager in terms of growth over the last few years at most tracks. This year the sequence contains four stakes and one allowance race and has 18,900 combinations, which is two and a half more than last year. If you can beat one or two favorites the return could easily exceed most expectations.

Looking back at the last ten Belmont Stakes card revealed some interesting stats regarding the Pick 6. During that time it went unhit three times. Of the seven that paid out to tickets with 6/6 winners the $2 returns ranged from a low of $6,345 (2013) to a high of $969,345 (2009). The Pick 6 paid over $100,000 three times in the last ten years including last year when American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown. The average return was $167,029 and the median return was $19,035. The pool size average was $1.6 million and the median was $1.7 million. The number of combinations ranged from a low of 107,520 (2007) to a high of 1,161,600 (2015). The average number of combinations in the sequence was 430,488 and the median was 371,520.

At a $2 minimum and with 4,398,394 combinations this year (which nearly four times more than the record high last year) the Pick 6 is the toughest wager on the card. An investment of under $500 is probably foolish and anything under $1,000 is pushing the bottom limit of acceptable. With no mortal cinches in the sequence I would not be surprised if the Pick 6 goes unhit. The pool is guaranteed at $1 million and there is no reason to believe will not easily exceed that amount.

The Pick 4 ending in the Belmont Stakes has been feast or famine during the last decade. The lowest $2 return was $425.25 (2014) and the highest was $167,056 (2010). It paid less than $2,000 four times, but more than $17,000 four times including twice topping $142,000. The average $2 return was $37,596 and the median return was $5,034. Unlike the Pick 6, which has not seen much substantial growth during this time the Pick 4 pool has more than doubled in size, topping $4 million last year. The average pool size was $2.6 million and the median was $2.3 million. The sequence usually contains the fewest races of the three multi-race wagers covered here with the number of combinations ranging from 3,888 (2008) to 12,672 (2010). The average was 7,167 and the median was 6,391.

The smaller number of combinations of the Pick 4 result in the lowest expected return but as history has shown it can pay big bucks with a few upsets. In fact last year it returned nearly $4,600 with American Pharoah completing the sequence. This year there are more than 24,000 combinations, which is almost double the record that occurred in 2010. That year produced the highest payoff in the last decade but that does not necessarily mean this year will do the same as the second highest total (2014) on the list produced the lowest return in the last ten years. The pool is guaranteed at $1.5 million but will likely exceed $4 million.