Preakness 2017: Classic Empire ready to prove he's best

It’s hard to believe it’s been 22 years since Thunder Gulch powered down the Churchill Downs stretch on his way to a 2 ¼ length win in the Kentucky Derby. Among the vanquished foes that day was a certain two-year-old champion, who, after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was slow to recapture the form he displayed the previous season. While going winless in all three of his Kentucky Derby preps, it’s not that Timber Country didn’t show up, he just had not yet shown that killer instinct he showed at the end of his two-year-old season. He closed well in the stretch of stablemate Thunder Gulch’s Derby to finish third, beaten a little over 2 1/4 lengths, his best race of his season up to that point.

In some ways, the main characters of this year’s Preakness Stakes remind me of Thunder Gulch and Timber Country. Always Dreaming parlayed his Florida Derby win to a Kentucky Derby win, and Thunder Gulch took the Florida Derby in his penultimate race before the Run for the Roses. Classic Empire has had a rough go of it this year since his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, reminding me very much of the aforementioned Timber Country’s season going in to his Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Timber Country was highly regarded, so much so that even after losing all four of his starts at age three going into the Preakness, he went off as the favorite over Thunder Gulch. Timber Country backed up that favoritism with a hard fought win in the Preakness, validating his supporters faith. Thunder Gulch finished third. While Classic Empire won’t go off the favorite on Saturday, he won’t be too far behind at the betting windows as many hardened handicappers feel that the son of Pioneerof The Nile is sitting on a winning race.

Always Dreaming has shown to be a steady horse with an uncanny determination to win, a perfect vehicle that has showcased the talents of his jockey John Velazquez and his trainer Todd Pletcher. I would even go so far to say that in his last four starts, going from maiden winner to Kentucky Derby winner, in many ways, is similar to the meteoric rise that Arrogate has enjoyed in his last four starts, albeit not to quite to those heights.

Always Dreaming could be the real deal, I say could be because history has shown us in racing that nothing is guaranteed. We can look no further than four years ago and Orb. Unbeaten in his three-year-old season, and convincing winner of the Kentucky Derby, few thought Orb could lose the Preakness, let alone be off the board at 7-10 odds. But he did lose. In fact, Orb never won again after his Derby, losing four more races before being retired.

Classic Empire, as everyone knows, has had a very eventful spring. The troubles he experienced in Florida seem to be behind him now. He trained well up to the Arkansas Derby and ran a good, but not great race in getting his first win this year. In the Kentucky Derby, as the chart says, he “bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when bumped and carried out mid-stretch, regrouped and churned on.” In other words, he had a terrible trip.

With a perfect trip does Classic Empire beat Always Dreaming in the Derby? No. Always Dreaming was too good. Always Dreaming skeptics may point to his great trip – it was perfect – but I tend to take the angle that good horses make their own luck, and trips in this case. John Velazquez rode Always Dreaming to perfection, utilizing the tools that Always Dreaming gave him. Using his early speed to put him in that position and keep himself out of trouble, and the stamina Always Dreaming showed in the stretch were the reasons he won, not just the trip.

Classic Empire now enters this Preakness with two solid races under his belt and is primed for his best now. There won’t be 19 other horses and traffic concerns around every turn. No excuses on Saturday for Classic Empire, I believe he is sitting on his best race. I respect Always Dreaming very much, but believe that Classic Empire, inherently is the better of the two and will finally show it on Saturday.

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If any member of this Preakness field can upset the top two look no further than Conquest Mo Money. He has never run a bad race and after skipping the Kentucky Derby, his connections have ponied up $150,000 to nominate the son of Uncle Mo for the last two legs of the Triple Crown. Of the newcomers, this guy rates the best chance, he ran a sneaky good Arkansas Derby attending the pace and showing grit in the stretch battling on gamely for second.

Having said all of that, history has shown us that Kentucky Derby horses coming back in the Preakness are the plays. I think the two weeks actually helps some horses, this is how it used to be, two or three weeks between races was the norm. Rarely will a horse who didn’t run in the Derby end up being the Preakness winner, it’s only happened three times in the last 34 years. One of those three, Rachel Alexandra, ran two weeks before in the Kentucky Oaks.

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After his 1995 Preakness win, Timber Country never ran again. He missed the Belmont with a virus and then, training for his return in the Jerome Handicap that fall, he tore a tendon in his left foreleg and was retired. Thunder Gulch, on the other hand, went on to one of the more underrated three-year-old campaigns in the last quarter century. After his third in the Preakness, he rattled off wins in the Belmont, Swaps, Travers, and Kentucky Cup Classic. In a much anticipated showdown against Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Thunder Gulch finished 5th. Afterwards, it was discovered Thunder Gulch suffered a fractured bone in his left foreleg and was retired to stud.