Division Rankings: Breeders' Cup to impact Eclipse Award races

Just outside of a week away from the Breeders' Cup, we'll start narrowing down each division’s Eclipse Award scenarios and how the championships could impact them. Surprisingly, this year’s Breeders’ Cup will have little to no impact on several glamour divisions, while other races appear open.

With the 2018 season nearing conclusion, there is no other older male in training who can top Accelerate’s resume. Even with a loss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, no matter how bad of a loss, Accelerate should win the vote in a landslide. He has had a stellar year as the first winner of each of the Santa Anita Handicap, Gold Cup at Santa Anita, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again in the same season. He will get my vote as the Champion Older Dirt Male.

A few months ago, it appeared that we could have a three-way showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff for the Older Dirt Female Eclipse between Unique Bella, Abel Tasman, and Elate. Now, only Abel Tasman has made it to the Distaff, and the Eclipse will come down to her and Unique Bella in a division that lacks depth. If Abel Tasman wins the Distaff, or at the very least, runs a strong second, she will win the Eclipse.

Unique Bella, although she has been retired for a few months, still has a shot. She won three of her four starts this year, two in Grade 1 events. Abel Tasman also has a pair of Grade 1 wins, but she beat better horses, turning back Elate at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign, and prior to that defeated the Unbridled Mo, the lone filly to have beaten Unique Bella this season. One of these two top females will get my vote as the top Older Dirt Female.

Justify has had the 3-Year-Old Male Eclipse wrapped up for months. Monomoy Girl has had the 3-Year-Old Filly Eclipse wrapped up as well. Both get my vote.

The deepest and most entertaining division for me was the male sprint division, and the Eclipse will likely come down to the Breeders’ Cup results. There are several scenarios out there.

Imperial Hint will win the Eclipse with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Even a loss, depending on which horse won, could still win him the title. He is the clear front-runner right now.

Promises Fulfilled’s Eclipse chances rest solely on the race choice. If his connections enter him in the Dirt Mile, he is effectively eliminated from the conversation. In order for a 3-year-old to win a sprint Eclipse, he needs this championship race on his resume.

If Roy H can defend his Breeders’ Cup title, he will in all likelihood win his second straight Eclipse in this division. For me, he will need to beat Imperial Hint decisively to garner the Eclipse.

There are other scenarios out there for a few, as X Y Jet is an interesting horse. He could very well win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but did he do enough this entire season to win the Eclipse? In my opinion, no. He will get votes if he wins, though.

Next week we will dive into the remainder of the divisions and their Breeders' Cup race implications. I will also look at Accelerate's Horse of the Year candidacy should he win the Classic.

Given all that, here is an updated look at HRN's Division Rankings: 

Older Dirt Males

1.  Accelerate – I can’t envision a scenario now where he doesn’t end up with the Eclipse. He should go postward as a strong favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over a distance he loves.

2.  Mind Your Biscuits – Passed his latest route test with flying colors, as he easily won the Lukas Classic (G3) over the Churchill Downs strip. Next up will likely be the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Sprint is his second preference.

3.  Diversify – Never had a chance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) with the fast early fractions he set. Will skip the Breeders' Cup as the barn mourns the recent death of trainer Rick Violette.

4.  Catalina Cruiser – He's unbeaten and has the makings of a superstar. Will likely be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his next start. 

5.  Yoshida – Didn’t beat much in the Grade 1 Woodward, but he did look good switching to dirt. In a division that lacks depth, he moved into the Top 5. An intriguing long shot in the Classic.

Next 5: West Coast, Thunder Snow, City of Light, Pavel, Gunnevera.

Older Dirt Females

1.  Abel Tasman – Experienced an elevated temperature in her last start, an abysmal off-the-board effort in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. She will still run in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and, contrary to many pundits' beliefs, is the horse to beat.

2.  Elate – Will miss the Breeders’ Cup due to injury but is expected to race in 2019.

3.  Unique Bella – Although retired, she still has a shot at Eclipse votes should Abel Tasman falter in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4.  Wow Cat – The Chilean star was no match for the Top 2 in the Personal Ensign (G1) but came back to win the Beldame (G1) in convincing fashion. She should account for herself very well in Louisville.

5.  Blue Prize – This Argentinian mare has really put together a nice season winning her last three starts. The Spinster (G1) marked her breakthrough moment. She should also be taken seriously in the Distaff.

Next 5: Salty, Martini Glass, La Force, Champagne Problems, Fault.

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Justify – Now retired, he will win the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old male, but the Horse of the Year is by no means a lock with Accelerate on a tear right now. 

2.  Catholic Boy – It takes a very special horse to win Grade 1 races on the turf and dirt. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is now the next major target, and he is training up to the race.

3.  McKinzie – Six months since his last start, this guy showed no rust as he dispatched the best of what is left of a very questionable class of 3-year-olds in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). The Breeders' Cup Classic is next.

4.  Audible – This guy will run Breeders’ Cup weekend, just not in the Breeders’ Cup. Look him to make his return Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs in the Cherokee Run Stakes. It is a seven-furlong race restricted to 3-year-olds on the undercard. If all goes well he will then run in the Harlan’s Holiday on December 15 at Gulfstream as his final prep for the Pegasus World Cup.

5.  Axelrod – This guy has matured into one of top horses in his class. He ran a strong second in the Pennsylvania Derby, 7 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. With Phoenix Thoroughbreds purchasing ownership, he will go in the Breeders' Cup Classic and has the Clark Handicap (G1) as another option in late November. 

Next 5: Mendelssohn, Bravazo, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Firenze Fire.  

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Monomoy Girl – She lost nothing in defeat as she was disqualified to second in the Cotillion (G1). Will win the Eclipse regardless of what takes place the remainder of the season. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next.

2.  Midnight Bisou – She has been ranked second here most of the season for a reason. She is the second-best 3-year-old filly in training. She proved her worth with a gutsy run in the Cotillion finishing second, but elevated to first via the DQ of Monomoy Girl. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next for her, too.

3.  Dream Tree - She was an impressive Prioress (G2) winner off a long layoff and is targeting the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

4.  Wonder Gadot – Finished 10 1/2 lengths behind the Top 2 in the Cotillion, but was best of the rest. A very nice filly, but a cut below the top ones. She's going in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

5.  Eskimo Kisses – Never factored against older in the Spinster. She likely prefers a longer distance and will skip the nine-furlong Distaff.

Next 5: Red Ruby, Talk Veuve to Me, Chocolate Martini, My Miss Lilly, Seperationofpowers.

Turf Males

1.  Robert Bruce – Ran well in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) but couldn’t catch the front-running Channel Maker. Retains the top spot in what continues to be a wide-open division. One of several could who could be ranked here.

2.  Glorious Empire – At age 7, this guy is in the best form of his career. The Sword Dancer (G1) marked his second straight graded stakes score, and his first Grade 1. He defeated Channel Maker in his last start, and that one came back to win the Joe Hirsch.

3.  Channel Maker – The latest to join the growing list of turf horses who have won a Grade 1 race this year. His last three starts have been solid.

4.  Oscar Performance – And just like that, with a Woodbine Mile (G1) score this guy is back in the thick of things in this wide-open division. A Breeders’ Cup Mile victory could win him the Eclipse.

5.  Arklow  – Finished second in Keeneland's Sycamore Stakes (G3) last week. The Breeders’ Cup Turf is still next over the same distance.

Next 5:  Divisidero, Hi Happy, Almanaar, Heart to Heart, Spring Quality.

Turf Females

1.  Sistercharlie – Cemented her hold on this spot with a determined Beverly D. (G1) win and has since trained up to the Breeders’ Cup.

2.  Fourstar Crook – Finally won her first Grade 1 race in the Flower Bowl. Will give the top one all she can handle in the Breeders’ Cup.

3.  A Raving Beauty– Won the First Lady (G1) on the lead. Don’t overlook her in the Breeders’ Cup coming from off the pace.

4.  Ultra Brat – Her last two starts have been solid. She was a hard-luck Diana (G1) loser when Sistercharlie changed leads late and surged at the wire.

5.  Daddys Lil Darling – Consistent filly is always there at the finish.

Next 5: Rushing Fall, Californiagoldrush, Uni, Vasilika, Dona Bruja.

 
Male Sprinters

1.  Imperial Hint – Cemented his position in this spot with his Vosburgh (G1) score. Will face a tough field in the Breeders’’ Cup Sprint on a track he has run over twice, both off the board finishes.

2.  Roy H – The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) showed that this guy is not done yet. Could repeat in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

3. Promises Fulfilled – This 3-year-old has matured into a serious sprinter. He tackled some tough older horses in his latest win and came away a winner, his third straight victory. Will be interesting to see how he handles speeders such as X Y Jet who also want the early lead.

4.  X Y Jet – Has only run once since Dubai, as he easily took care of business in the Smile Sprint. Trainer Jorge Navarro has confirmed that the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is next if training goes well.

5.  Mind Your Biscuits – With his latest win over a route of ground, he likely won't be sprinting again anytime soon.

Next 5: City of Light, Whitmore, Limousine Liberal, Ransom the Moon, CZ Rocket.

Female Sprinters

1.  Selcourt – Was flattered with Marley’s Freedom's win in the Ballerina (G1). She handed Marley’s Freedom her last loss back in March, but will need to be at her best in their next meeting.

2.  Marley’s Freedom – Dominant win in the Ballerina in her first cross-country trip as she handled the best sprinters in the East. She's been on fire since transferred to Bob Baffert. She will train up to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3.  Finley'sluckycharm – Did not run well on a sensible lead in the Ballerina. Her last two starts at seven furlongs resulted in off-the-board finishes.

4.  Union Strike – Her win in the Gallant Bloom (G2) also flattered Marley’s Freedom, who beat her by five in her last start, the Ballerina.

5.  Skye Diamonds – Fourth in last year’s Filly & Mare Sprint, she won for the first time this year in the LA Woman (G3) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Lewis Bay, Ivy Bell, Golden Mischief, Separationofpowers, Hotshot Anna.

2-Year-Old Males

1.  Game Winner – Has a hold on the top spot after an impressive American Pharoah Stakes (G1) win. This guy will only get better the longer he goes. He's the horse to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

2.  Instagrand – So far has looked like a monster, winning his two starts by a combined 20 1/4 lengths. He will now sit until 2019 to point for his 3-year-old campaign. 

3.  Complexity  – Not sure how far he can run, but right now it doesn’t matter. Impressive win in the Champagne (G1).

4.  Code of Honor – Was second after an early stumble in the Champagne, and I get the feeling he will be much better around two turns.

5.  Gunmetal Gray – Disappointed some in the American Pharoah. 

Next 5: Rowayton, Call Paul, Knicks Go, Ahead of Plan, Tale of the Union.

2-Year-Old Females

1.  Bellafina – Dominated the Chandelier (G1) in her first start around two turns. Clear leader in the division for now.

2.  Sippican Harbor – The Spinaway (G1) winner should get better as she goes longer.

3.  Restless Rider – Impressive win in the Alcibiades (G1), making her one of the few to already claim two stakes wins.

4.  Serengeti Empress – It is not often you see any horse win a Grade 2 event by more than 19 lengths. She's on to the Breeders' Cup after her Pocahontas Stakes romp.

5.  Jaywalk – Looked very good in the Frizette (G1) in a wire-to-wire win.

Next 7: Mother Mother, Feedback, Chasing Yesterday, Vibrance, Del Mar May, Brill, Newspaperofrecord.