Division Rankings: Five leaders run on Belmont Stakes day

Breeders’ Cup aside, this weekend’s three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is arguably the best the sport offers.

With a whopping eight Grade 1 races on tap for Saturday, no fewer than five of the eight division leaders ranked below will be in action.

War of Will isn’t ranked No. 1 -- that distinction still belongs to Maximum Security -- but he'd certainly move up with a repeat of his Preakness Stakes performance.

It looks like the public will go against the son of War Front as the favorite. Whether it was his good trip in the Preakness, or the fact that he will be the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races, it seems people are down on his chances for Belmont glory. Don’t count me among them.

For me, the Belmont boils down to War of Will, Tax, Spinoff and the anticipated favorite Tacitus. These are the only horses I can see crossing the wire first.

Call me old school, but I think War of Will could run his best race on Saturday, in what's his third start in five weeks. Some horses thrive with more racing. War of Will may be one of them. I believe he will love the added ground, and with his versatile running style at 1 1/2 miles, the field should be strung out on the final turn. There will be no traffic trouble.

Don’t sleep on Spinoff, either. I am convinced this son of Hard Spun simply didn’t care for the track in the Kentucky Derby. I expect him to run a career top on Saturday, and that could be enough for a win. He too has early speed and can be placed either on or slightly off the pace. My only concern with Spinoff would be his ability to handle the distance given his pedigree.

Finally, many handicappers like Tacitus, and so do I -- though only to a point.

Before crossing the wire fourth in the Kentucky Derby, he did nothing wrong in winning both of his starts in 2019, the Wood Memorial (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). But Tacitus' off-the-pace running style doesn't often work in this race. Perhaps he'll be closer to the leaders going 12 furlongs. Despite him being a son of Tapit, there is a lack of stamina on his dam side.

Tax, meanwhile, may be the best-bred horse for the distance. He is a must-use on all tickets.

Elsewhere on the card, again, five No. 1-ranked horses will make their next starts in various divisions: McKinzie, Midnight Bisou, Bricks and Mortar, Mitole and Serengeti Empress.

Midnight Bisou will be heavily favored to win another Grade 1 race in the Ogden Phipps. She can distance what's already a commanding lead in the Older Dirt Female division, and I'd be surprised if she loses Saturday.

Top Turf Male Bricks and Mortar will get a stern test, maybe even more so than in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, as he returns in the Manhattan (G1). Channel Maker, Robert Bruce, Qurbaan or Olympico could jump up to give the favorite a challenge. Here, I don't see the No. 1 horse as a lock.

Can the inconsistent Serengeti Empress put together two good races in a row? That's the big question in the Acorn (G1) for our top 3-year-old filly. Until she is able to show me she can do so against this level, I have to try and beat her in this spot. Fancy Dress Party, a winner of all four of her career starts, merits some respect here, as does Cookie Dough, who has been knocking at the door for her first graded stakes win and switches to the Kiaran McLaughlin barn.

Last but certainly not least, the race of the year up to this point has to be the Met Mile (G1), which will be run two races before the Belmont Stakes. The Met Mile has long been one of my favorite races for various reasons. What is so unique about the Met Mile, aside from its long history, is the distance that creates neutral ground for sprinters and routers.

The No. 1-ranked older dirt male, McKninzie, will face off against top male sprinter Mitole. This is far from a two horse race, though, as six Grade 1 winners are entered in all. 

Ironically, one of the horses without a Grade 1 win to their name could be best suited to this distance. Coal Front is coming off a win in Dubai in the Godolphin Mile (G2), and in his only other start in 2019 he won the Razorback (G3) at Oaklawn. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Stay Thirsty is flying a bit under the radar at 6-1, poised to outrun those odds.

Adding some intrigue to the race is two-time Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Thunder Snow. Last time he was stateside, he ran a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Originally not slated to revisit until the Saratoga meet, Thunder Snow's connections should be commended for trying this spot in what's a sporting gesture and gives their horse plenty to prove.

The one they'll all have a tough time beating is Mitole. A winner of his last six starts by wide margins, Mitole is the "now" horse, and if he wins this race, he'll be minted a superstar. His last win in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) indicated to me that he will be fine with the added distance. He showed the ability to rate off the early leaders before taking over in the stretch to win convincingly.  

Given that, here's a look at all of this week's division rankings.

Older Dirt Males

1.  McKinzie – After two narrow losses to start the year, he broke through in a big way in the Alysheba Stakes (G2). The Met Mile's next up.

2.  Thunder Snow – Became the first to win two Dubai World Cups. He will go next in the Met Mile, too.

3.  Gift Box – The Big 'Cap (G1) winner has turned into a star since his transfer to Southern California. He didn't lose much in defeat to Vino Rosso in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1).

4.  Vino Rosso – Finally broke through to win his first Grade 1 race, and at the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic distance it makes him a contender here.

5.  Catholic Boy – Lots of options for this guy, as he is good on either surface. Started the year off right with a win in the Dixie Stakes (G2) at Pimlico Race Course.

Next 5: Coal Front, Seeking the Soul, Quip, Gunnevera, Prince Lucky.


Older Dirt Females

1.  Midnight Bisou – Deserves this spot after already winning three graded stakes in 2019, most recently the Apple Blossom (G1). Will run next on this weekend in the Ogden Phipps.

2.  Elate – No real excuse when third in the Apple Blossom. The Bill Mott-trained mare will regroup for her next start going a longer distance next weekend in Churchill Downs' Fleur de Lis (G2).

3.  She’s a Julie – Now 2-for-2 this season with a big win in the La Troienne Stakes (G1) over Blue Prize and Secret Spice. She too is a Fleur de Lis hopeful.

4.  Blue Prize – Ran OK when third in the La Troienne in her first start this year. She'll look to defend her Fleur de Lis win.

5.  Secret Spice – Won the Beholder Mile (G1) and then traveled to race outside of California for the first time to run a close second to She’s a Julie in the La Troienne.

Next 5: La Force, Paradise Woods, Come Dancing, Escape Clause, Mia Mischief.
 

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Maximum Security – Regardless of the Kentucky Derby DQ, this colt showed me a lot with a gritty and stellar effort in crossing the wire first. He's back on the work tab with the Haskell (G1) as his next major goal.

2.  War of Will – Showed in the Preakness that he is indeed among the best in his division. He could go to No. 1 pending his Belmont run.

3.  Omaha Beach – Had some bad luck with the throat issues causing him to scratch out out of the Kentucky Derby as the favorite but will be a fresh horse in the fall.

4.  Game Winner – Was wide and bumped throughout in the Derby but came from nearly 20 lengths back to cross the wire in sixth, only be beaten by 3 3/4 lengths. The Travers (G1) is his next major goal.

5.  Tacitus – Came running in the stretch, but fell short when crossing the Kentucky Derby wire in fourth place. He's the anticipated Belmont favorite.

Next 5: Country House, Code of Honor, Improbable, Owendale, Roadster.

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Serengeti Empress – Showed in the Kentucky Oaks that her bleeding episode in her previous race was behind her. When she gets the lead, she is tough to beat.

2.  Bellafina – Her fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks was disappointing for her connections. Nine furlongs may be a bit too far for the daughter of Quality Road. She will cut back to one turn for her next start.

3.  Liora – Was the only filly who really got close to Serengeti Empress, and the move to add blinkers has clearly made a difference. But she's now off to the sidelines due to injury.

4.  Lady Apple – The Fantasy Stakes (G2) winner gave a good account of herself in the Kentucky Oaks with her third-place finish.  

5.  Champagne Anyone – The Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) winner was just edged for the show spot in the Kentucky Oaks.

Next 5: Point of Honor, Jaywalk, Out for a Spin, Enaya Alrabb, Chasing Yesterday.

Turf Males

1.  Bricks and Mortar – Another late move and another win, this time in the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1). The beat keeps on rolling for this clear leader of the division.

2.  Catholic Boy – Although he may focus more on dirt races now, I believe he is better on the grass.

3.  Qurbaan – Ran a winning race in the Turf Classic at Churchill only to be edged at the wire by a half-length by Bricks and Mortar.

4.  Channel Maker – Got back into the win column with a gritty victory in the Man o’ War (G1).

5.  Almanaar – A lot is expected of this guy, but the question is, can he run consistently? He started 2019 off on the right foot, winning the Monmouth Stakes (G2).

Next 5: Catapult, Delta Prince, Arklow, Stormy Liberal, Synchrony.

Turf Females

1.  Vasilika – The wins keep piling up with her latest in the Gamely Stakes (G1). It’s hard to envision her losing to her California rivals in this form.

2.  Rushing Fall – Made her first appearance in a race this year a winning one in the Jenny Wiley (G1). She's now 7-for-8 lifetime and goes next in Saturday's Just a Game (G1).

3.  Magic Wand – Has done well running against the boys, most recently in the Wan o' War, but still hasn’t won. 

4.  Rymska – Second to Rushing Fall and Vasilika in her last two starts, won the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) before that.

5.  Santa Monica – Winner of her last two starts, the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (G2) and the Orchid Stakes (G3). Another on trainer Chad Brown’s loaded roster.

Next 5: Hawksmoor, Competitionofideas, Mitchell Road, Daddy Is a Legend, Homerique.

Male Sprinters

1.  Mitole – It will take an extraordinary effort to defeat this one in a sprint. Next, he'll stretch out for the Met Mile.

2.  World of Trouble – Would love to see this guy go against Mitole and the others this summer. He has won on dirt and turf already this season with the Jaipur (G1) next on Saturday.

3.  Roy H – He had to be scratched out of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) due to a minor foot issue that showed quick improvement. Will focus on a return trip to the Breeders’ Cup.

4.  X Y Jet – After two near misses and multiple knee surgeries, he put it all together to finally win the Dubai Golden Shaheen, looking like a force on the front end.

5.  Whitmore – Had too much to do when trying to close into Mitole in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Will run in the True North (G2) this Friday.

Next 5: Bobby’s Wicked One, Promised Fulfilled, Imperial Hint, Coal Front, Imprimis.

Female Sprinters

1.  Marley’s Freedom – Still holds this spot despite her runner-up finish in the Humana Distaff (G1).

2.  Dream Pauline – Easily took care of business in her first start this year, the Hurricane Bertie (G3). Champion Shamrock Rose was among those left her in wake.

3.  Mia Mischief – Won her first Grade 1 race in the Humana Distaff.

4.  Spiced Perfection – The Madison (G1) winner finished fourth in the Humana Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs.

5.  Selcourt - May not be as good as in the past, but on her best day sprinting is still near the top of this division. She scratched recently from Santa Anita's Desert Stormer (G3).

Next 5: Spiced Perfection, Break Even, Amy’s Challenge, Shamrock Rose, Covfefe.