HRN Division Rankings: Roy H back in the Eclipse Award race
As we move closer to the
Breeders’ Cup and the end of another racing season, the battles for divisional
Eclipse Awards are nearing conclusion.
Throughout the season, these rankings have attempted to sort the horses in each division based not only on who was in peak form, but also where they stood in the Eclipse race. The horses ranked below are all currently in training, with a few exceptions, only if a retired horse can still make a legitimate case for Eclipse votes. Think Justify and Unique Bella in particular. Those ranked No. 1 in each division at the end of the season will get the vote on my ballot.
Last weekend, the big winner in terms of getting back into the Eclipse conversation was Roy H. The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Sprint hero and Eclipse award champ returned to the winner's circle for the first time since February.
In a loaded sprint division, the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) was a must-win for Roy H in terms of the bigger picture. He is now a legitimate player for what should be one of most highly anticipated races on the Breeders’ Cup card, the Sprint.
As it stands now, we could have up to eight of our Top 10-ranked sprint contenders entered. Divisional leader Imperial Hint will go favored off his three straight stakes scores. Another big sprint winner over the weekend, Promises Fulfilled, will see plenty of action at the windows. He too is in with a shot at the Eclipse in this division as a 3-year-old.
The favorites do have some questions to be answered. Imperial Hint has had his problems at Churchill Downs, where his two worst career performances have come. The possible presence of X Y Jet, a known quality speedster who, on his best day, is near the top in this division, will complicate things for Promises Fulfilled, another front-runner.
The Sprint has been won in back-to-back years only once by Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008. Roy H has a real shot to duplicate the feat and claim another Eclipse.
Elsewhere, the male turf division continues to be, well, a mess. Another Grade 1, and another longshot wins. This time it was Next Shares in the Shadwell Turf Mile. All of the favorites, Analyze It, Almanaar and Heart to Heart were off the board. The race for the Eclipse in this division is as wide open as it has ever been.
Given all that, here is an updated look at HRN's Division Rankings:
Older Dirt Males
1. Accelerate – I can’t envision a scenario
now where he doesn’t end up with the Eclipse. He should go postward as a strong
favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over a distance he loves.
2. Mind Your Biscuits – Passed his latest route test
with flying colors, as he easily won the Grade 3 Lukas Classic over the
Churchill Downs strip. Next up will likely be the Breeders’ Cup Classic, though the Sprint and Dirt Mile are also under consideration.
3. Diversify – Never had a chance in the
Jockey Club Gold Cup with the fast early fractions he set. Will try and regroup
in his next start but has to leave New York for the Classic.
4. Catalina Cruiser –
He's unbeaten and has the makings of a superstar. Will likely be the favorite
in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his next start.
5. Yoshida – Didn’t beat much in
the Grade 1 Woodward, but he did look good switching to dirt. In a division
that lacks depth, he moves into the Top 5.
Next 5: West Coast, Thunder Snow, City of Light, Pavel, Gunnevera.
Older Dirt Females
1. Abel Tasman – Experienced an elevated temperature in his last start, an abysmal off the board effort in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. She
will still run in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and, contrary to many pundits' beliefs, is the horse to beat.
2. Elate – Will miss the Breeders’ Cup due to injury. Future is
undecided.
3. Unique
Bella – Although retired, she
still has a shot at Eclipse votes should Abel Tasman falter in the Breeders’
Cup Distaff.
4. Wow
Cat – The Chilean star was no
match for the Top 2 in the Personal Ensign but came back to win the Grade 1
Beldame last weekend in convincing fashion. She should account for herself very
well in Louisville.
5. Blue Prize – This Argentinian mare has really put together a nice season
winning her last three starts. The Grade 1 Spinster on Sunday was her
breakthrough moment, and she should also be taken very seriously in the Distaff.
Next 5: Salty, Martini Glass, La Force, Champagne Problems, Fault.
3-Year-Old-Males
1. Justify – Now retired, he will win the
Eclipse as the top 3-year-old male, but the Horse of the Year is by no means a
lock with Accelerate on a tear right now.
2. Catholic Boy – It takes a very
special horse to win Grade 1 races on the turf and dirt. The Breeders’ Cup
Classic is now the next major target, and he is training up to the race.
3. McKinzie – Six
months since his last start, this guy showed no rust as he dispatched the best
of what is left of a very questionable class of 3-year-olds in the Grade 1
Pennsylvania Derby. The Breeders' Cup Classic is possible for his next start,
or the Clark Handicap (G1) in late November.
4. Audible – Back on the work tab, he will
point to the Pegasus World Cup in January, with a possible prep beforehand. The
feeling here is that he is the best in this class who is not yet retired.
5. Axelrod – This
guy has matured into one of top horses in his class. He ran a strong second in
the Pennsylvania Derby, 7 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Will be
considered for the Breeders’ Cup Classic for his next start, with the Clark as
another option.
Next 5: Mendelssohn, Bravazo, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Firenze Fire.
3-Year-Old-Females
1. Monomoy Girl – She lost nothing
defeat as she was disqualified to second in the Cotillion (G1). Will win the
Eclipse regardless of what takes place the remainder of the season. The
Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next.
2. Midnight Bisou – She has been ranked
second here most of the season for a reason. She is the second-best 3-year-old
filly in training. She proved her worth with a gutsy run in the Cotillion
finishing second, but elevated to first via the DQ of Monomoy Girl. The
Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next for her, too.
3. Dream
Tree - She was an impressive Prioress (G2) winner off a long layoff, and will target the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare
Sprint.
4. Wonder Gadot – Finished 10 1/2 lengths behind the Top 2 in the
Cotillion, but was best of the rest. A very nice filly, but a cut below the top
ones. Still possible for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
5. Eskimo Kisses – Never factored against older in the Spinster.
Next 5: Red Ruby, Talk Veuve to Me, Chocolate Martini, My Miss Lilly, Seperationofpowers.
Turf Males
1. Robert Bruce – Ran well in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) but
couldn’t catch the front-running Channel Maker. Retains the top spot in what
continues to be a wide-open division. One of several could who could be ranked
here.
2. Glorious
Empire – At
age 7, this guy is in the best form of his career. The Sword Dancer (G1) marked his
second straight graded stakes score, and his first Grade 1. He defeated Channel
Maker in his last start, and that one came back to win the Joe Hirsch.
3. Channel Maker – The latest to join the growing list of turf horses who have won a Grade 1 race this year. His last three starts have been solid.
4. Oscar
Performance –
And just like that, with a Woodbine Mile (g1) score this guy is back in the
thick of things in this wide-open division. A Breeders’ Cup Mile victory could
win him the Eclipse.
5. Arklow – Someone has to be ranked fifth, so why not this guy? One of the few in this division who has won two races in a row. But he was not entered as anticipated in the
Next 5: Divisidero, Hi Happy, Almanaar, Heart to Heart, Spring Quality.
Turf Females
1. Sistercharlie – Cemented her hold on this spot with a determined Beverly D. (G1) win. Will train up to the Breeders’ Cup.
2. Fourstar Crook – Finally won her first Grade 1 race this past weekend in the Flower Bowl. Will give the top one all she can handle in the Breeders’ Cup.
3. A Raving Beauty–
Won the First Lady (G1) on the lead. Don’t overlook her in the Breeders’ Cup
coming from off the pace.
4. Ultra Brat – Her last two starts have been solid. She was a hard-luck
Diana (G1) loser when Sistercharlie changed leads late and surged at the wire.
5. Daddys
Lil Darling – Consistent filly is always there at the finish.
Next 5: Proctor’s Ledge, Californiagoldrush,
Uni, Vasilika, Dona Bruja.
Male Sprinters
1. Imperial Hint – Cemented his position in this spot with his Vosburgh (G1) score. Will face a tough field in the Breeders’’ Cup
Sprint over a track he has run over twice, both off the board finishes.
2. Roy
H – The Santa Anita
Sprint Championship (g1) showed that this guy is not done yet. Could repeat in the
Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
3. Promises Fulfilled – This 3-year-old has matured into a serious sprinter. He tackled
some tough older horses in his latest win and came away a winner, his third
straight victory. Will be interesting to see how he handles speeders such as X Y
Jet who also want the early lead.
4. X Y Jet – Has only run once since Dubai, as he easily took care
of business in the Smile Sprint. Trainer Jorge Navarro has confirmed that the
Breeders’ Cup Sprint is next if training goes well.
5. Mind Your Biscuits – With his latest win over
a route of ground, he likely won't be sprinting again anytime soon.
Next 5: City of Light, Whitmore, Limousine Liberal, Ransom the Moon, CZ Rocket.
Female Sprinters
1. Selcourt – Was flattered with Marley’s Freedom's win
in the Ballerina (G1). She handed Marley’s Freedom her last loss back in
March, but will need to be at her best in their next meeting.
2. Marley’s Freedom – Dominant win in the Ballerina in her first cross-country
trip as she handled the best sprinters in the East. She's been on fire since
transferred to Bob Baffert. She will train up to the Breeders' Cup Filly &
Mare Sprint.
3. Finley'sluckycharm – Did not run well on a sensible lead in the Ballerina.
Her last two starts at seven furlongs resulted in off-the-board finishes.
4. Union Strike – Her win in the Gallant Bloom (G2) also flattered Marley’s Freedom, who beat her by five in her last
start, the Ballerina.
5. Skye Diamonds – Fourth in last
year’s Filly & Mare Sprint, she won her first race of 2018 last weekend in the LA Woman (G3) at Santa Anita.
Next 5: Lewis Bay, Ivy
Bell, Miss Sunset, Separationofpowers, Hotshot Anna.
2-Year-Old Males
1. Game
Winner – Has a hold on the top spot after an impressive American Pharoah Stakes (G1) win. This guy will only get better the longer he goes. He's the horse
to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
2. Instagrand – So
far has looked like a monster, winning his two starts by a combined 20 1/4
lengths. He will now sit until 2019 to point for his 3-year-old campaign.
3. Complexity – Not sure how far he can run, but right now it doesn’t matter.
Impressive win in the Champagne (G1).
4. Code of Honor – Was second after an early stumble in the Champagne, and I get the feeling he will be much better around two turns.
5. Gunmetal Gray – Disappointed some in the American Pharoah.
Next 5: Rowayton, Call Paul, Knicks Go, Ahead of Plan, Tale of the Union.
2-Year-Old Females
1. Bellafina – Dominated
the Chandelier (G1) in her first start around two turns. Clear leader in the
division for now.
2. Sippican
Harbor – The Spinaway (G1) winner should get better as she
goes longer.
3. Restless
Rider – Impressive win in the Alcibiades (G1), making her one of the few to already claim two stakes wins.
4. Serengeti
Empress – It is not often you see any horse win a Grade 2 event by over 19
lengths. She's on to the Breeders' Cup after her Pocahontas Stakes romp.
5. Jaywalk – Looked very good in the Frizette (G1) in a wire-to-wire win.
Next 7: Mother Mother, Feedback, Chasing Yesterday, Vibrance, Del Mar May, Brill, Newspaperofrecord.