HRN Division Rankings: 3-year-old crop borders on average

With several major races scheduled for this weekend and the next, most Breeders' Cup contenders have just one race left before the first weekend in November. Last week we saw several championship-bound horses complete their preps, chief among them Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou.

Although Monomoy Girl crossed the finish line in first for the sixth straight time, she was disqualified and placed second behind the close runner-up Midnight Bisou in the Grade 1 Cotillion. As for the decision to take her down, I have no problem with it, mainly because of the narrow margin of victory. I do believe that the interference may have cost Midnight Bisou that neck by which she lost.

Regardless, both of these fantastic fillies have had stellar seasons. For Monomoy Girl, she has enjoyed an historic season, winning four straight Grade 1 races. She will be a deserving winner of the Eclipse.

For Midnight Bisou, I have always felt that 8.5 or 9 furlongs was her game, and she proved that on Saturday. Her resume would be good enough to win her the Eclipse in many previous years, but not this one. A Grade 1 winner on both coasts, she has had a stellar season winning five of eight.

Both should give the older females all they can handle in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, and I applaud their connections for running them in most of, if not all of the major events for the age group. It’s a rare thing nowadays: a full campaign from the start of the season until the fall. Bravo.

Toss in the older Abel Tasman and possibly Elate, and the Breeders' Cup Distaff most certainly will be one of, if not the most-anticipated race on Breeders' Cup weekend.

On the male side, McKinzie certainly lived up to his favoritism as he held Axelrod at bay in the stretch for the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby win. For McKinzie, who was running off of a six-month layoff, it was quite an effort. What it means for the Breeders’ Cup remains to be seen as his connections may skip and wait for the Grade 1 Clark Handicap in late November.

As for the 3-year-old crop in general, we are a long way from the talk last May about the Kentucky Derby field being the “best in decades,” and this crop being the best in “many years” talk. As it stands now, Justify aside, Derby alumni Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire have done the most on the racetrack since May, both around one turn. Catholic Boy and McKinzie won the two biggest post Triple Crown races for 3-year-old males. One is a grass horse (who may be better on the dirt) and the other hadn’t run for six months.

Although it’s still a little early to render a verdict on this crop, its bordering on average to below average, at best.

Given all that, here is an updated look at HRN's Division Rankings: 

Older Dirt Males

1.  Accelerate – The 2018 version of Accelerate is a bona fide star and, yes, a Horse of the Year contender. His final start before the Breeders’ Cup is this weekend in the Grade 1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Maybe the returning 3-year-old champ from last season, West Coast, can give him a race.

2.  Diversify – He will have to settle for second-best in this division right now. He headlines Saturday's Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. 

3.  Catalina Cruiser – He's unbeaten and has the makings of a superstar. Will likely be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his next start.

4.  Mind Your Biscuits – Ran a nice race in the Grade 1 Whitney to finish second stretching out. He'll go next in Churchill Downs' Grade 3 Lukas Classic this weekend and could run in any of the Breeders' Cup Sprint, Dirt Mile or Classic.

5.  Yoshida – Didn’t beat much in the Grade 1 Woodward, but he did look good. In a division that lacks depth he moves into the top five.

Next 5: West Coast, City of Light, Pavel, Gunnevera, Thunder Snow.

Older Dirt Females

1.  Abel Tasman – The Grade 1 Personal Ensign marked the fourth time she has shipped cross-country to New York from her home base in California to win a Grade 1. She is on track for another Eclipse Award and will be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

2.  Elate – Ran her heart out in the Personal Ensign, but Abel Tasman was too good. Will miss a scheduled start this weekend, and her Breeders’ Cup status is in question. If she runs, it seems she will train up to the big day. The Distaff and Classic are both in play.

3.  Unique Bella – She was injured in a workout and is now retired, but we'll keep her here because she will garner votes for an Eclipse based off her 2018 record.

4.  Salty – Finally was able to defeat her rival, Abel Tasman, in the La Troienne back on Derby weekend. Hasn’t raced since. 

5.  Wow Cat – The Chilean star was no match for the top two in the Personal Ensign, but was best of the rest.

Next 5: Blue Prize, Martini Glass, La Force, Ivy Bell, Fault.

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Justify – Now retired, he will win the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old male, but the Horse of the Year is by no means a lock with Accelerate on a tear right now. 

2.  Catholic Boy – It takes a very special horse to win Grade 1 races on the turf and dirt. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is now the next major target, and he will train up to the race.

3.  McKinzie – Six months since his last start, this guy showed no rust ad he dispatched the best of what is left of a very questionable class of 3-year-olds. The Breeders' Cup Classic is possible for his next start, or the Clark Handicap in late November.

4.  Audible – Back on the work tab, he will point to the Pegasus World Cup in January, with a possible prep beforehand. The feeling here is that he is the best in this class who is not yet retired.

5.  Axelrod – This guy has matured into one of top horses in his class. He ran a very strong second in the Penn Derby, 7 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Will be considered for the Breeders’ Cup Classic for his next start, with the Clark as another option.

Next 5: Bravazo, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Mendelssohn, Firenze Fire.  

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Monomoy Girl – She lost nothing defeat as she was disqualified to second in the Cotillion. Will win the Eclipse regardless of what takes place the remainder of the season. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next.

2.  Midnight Bisou – She has been ranked second here most of the season for a reason. She is the second-best 3-year-old filly in training. She proved her worth with a gutsy run in the Cotillion finishing second, but elevated to first via the DQ of Monomoy Girl. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is next for her, too.

3.  Dream Tree - She was an impressive Grade 2 Prioress winner off a long layoff and will target the Breeders' Cup. So, Distaff or Filly & Mare Sprint?

4.  Wonder Gadot – Finished 10 1/2 lengths behind the top two in the Cotillion, but was best of the rest. A very nice filly, but a cut below the top ones. Still possible for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff according to her connections.

5.  Eskimo Kisses – Finally broke through with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Alabama going last to first. Will run once more before the Breeders’ Cup in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland. 

Next 5: Red Ruby, Talk Veuve to Me, Road to Victory, My Miss Lilly, Seperationofpowers.

Turf Males

1.  Robert Bruce – Was much the best in the Arlington Million and will now chart a path to the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, where he will face several others here, is next up this weekend.

2.  Almanaar – The Arlington Million runner-up was game in defeat, and perhaps was a bit short for the race having only run once in 18 months going in. Should move more forward off that effort. 

3.  Glorious Empire – At age 7, this guy is in the best form of his career. The Sword Dancer marked his second straight graded stakes score, and his first Grade 1.

4.  Heart to Heart – He didn't show in his last start, but that was over "good" turf, and he has done enough this year to stay in the Top 5. 

5.  Oscar Performance – And just like that, with a Woodbine Mile score this guy is back in the thick of things in this wide-open division. A Breeders’ Cup Mile victory could win him the Eclipse.

Next 6: Spring Quality, Channel Maker, Divisidero, Yoshida, Hi Happy, Arklow.

Turf Females

1.  Sistercharlie – Cemented her hold on this spot with a determined Grade 1 Beverly D. win. Is questionable for the Flower Bowl on Oct. 7, and may train up to the Breeders’ Cup.

2.  Fourstar Crook – The tough-luck loser in the Beverly D. Has been beaten twice this season by her rival. Is a definite for the Grade 1 Flower Bowl for her next start.

3.  A Raving Beauty– Didn’t fire when fourth in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa on Travers day. Will go next at Keeneland in the Grade 1 First Lady on Oct. 6. Could be very tough come Breeders’ Cup day.

4.  Ultra Brat – Her last two starts have been very good. She was a hard-luck Diana loser when Sistercharlie changed leads late and surged at the wire.

5.  Daddys Lil Darling – Consistent filly is always there at the finish.

Next 5:  Proctor’s Ledge, Quidura, Californiagoldrush, Uni, Rushing Fall.
 
Male Sprinters

1.  Imperial Hint – “Wow” is the only word to describe his Grade 1 Vanderbilt win. He took over the top spot because he has done of the most as of late. The Grade 1 Vosburgh this weekend is up next.

2.  X Y Jet – Has only run once since Dubai, as he easily took care of business in the Smile Sprint. Skipped the Grade 3 De Francis Memorial Dash last weekend, and could appear in Keeneland's Phoenix.

3.  Roy H – Has lost two straight since his win in February. Will look to get back in the winner’s circle in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at six furlongs on Oct. 6.

4.  Mind Your Biscuits – Ran big again in the Whitney, and likely will not be sprinting again this year unless he flops in his next start, the Lukas Classic around two turns, this weekend at Churchill Downs. 

5.  City of Light – Off 90 days, he returned to sprint races and was beaten by Whitmore in the Grade 1 Forego. Look for better in his next start. 

Next 5: Promises Fulfilled, Whitmore, Limousine Liberal, Ransom the Moon, CZ Rocket.

Female Sprinters

1.  Selcourt – Was flattered with Marley’s Freedom's win in the Grade 1 Ballerina. She handed Marley’s Freedom her last loss back in March, but will need to be at her best in their next meeting.

2.  Marley’s Freedom – Dominant win in the Ballerina in her first cross-country trip as she handled the best sprinters in the East. She's been on fire since transferred to Bob Baffert.

3.  Finley'sluckycharm – Did not run well on a sensible lead in the Ballerina. Her last two starts at seven furlongs resulted in off the board finishes.

4.  Union Strike – Her win last weekend in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom flattered Marley’s Freedom, who beat her by five in her last start, the Grade 1 Ballerina.

5.  Lewis Bay – Will give her a mulligan for her last place finish as the favorite in the Gallant Bloom, only her second off the board finish in 17 career starts. She has been among the best female sprinters in 2018, and will be a contender in the Breeders’ Cup, if she goes.

Next 5: Skye Diamonds, Ivy Bell, Miss Sunset, Separationofpowers, Hotshot Anna.

2-Year-Old Males

1.  Instagrand – So far has looked like a monster, winning his two starts by a combined 20 1/4 lengths. He will now sit until 2019 to point for his 3-year-old campaign. 

2.  Game Winner – Looked good closing in the Grade Del Mar Futurity. He inherits favoritism from Instagrand now in his next start, the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita.

3.  Mind Control – The 10-1 shot ran a deceivingly strong race in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes.

4.  Mucho – Was simply second best as the favorite in the Hopeful. Should be better around two turns.   

5.  Rowayton – May be better sprinting, but still ran well at Del Mar.

Next 7: Complexity, Endorsed, Ahead of Plan, Call Paul, Trophy Chaser, Tale of the Union, Cairo Cat.

2-Year-Old Females

1.  Bellafina – She won both of her stakes starts at Del Mar, and sits on top of a wide-open division right now.

2.  Sippican Harbor – The Grade 1 Spinaway winner should get better as she goes longer.

3.  Mother Mother – She ran a clear second to our top one at Del Mar.

4.  Restless Rider – The previous stakes winner made a nice come-from-behind effort in the Spinaway.

5.  Serengeti Empress – It is not often you see any horse win a Grade 2 event by over 19 lengths. She's on to the Breeders' Cup after her Pocahontas Stakes win.

 Next 7: Feedback, Der Lu, Chasing Yesterday, Del Mar May, Brill, Covfefe, Newspaperofrecord.